Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
725 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Little to no change in the overall pattern. The upper ridge is still
centered over MX / the Pacific where it will remain over the course
of the period. The surface high pressure is off to the northeast of
us with winds out of the south and SE supplying plentiful moisture.
We will see impulses quickly slide across the region, leading to
daily showers and storms.

Currently we are seeing isolated showers and storms on radar
mostly along a boundary that is bisecting the CWA. Confidence in
model guidance is low, however the general consensus is that the
first round of storms will move into the CWA this evening before
tapering out going into the overnight hours. The lull in activity
will be possible from there until the mid Friday morning
timeframe. By the afternoon hours, yet another round is expected
as a weak surface low moves into the ArkLaTx then exits off to the
northeast. The models are split on the placement of an upper
level low moving across the Southern Plains on Saturday, however
it will provide more rain for the region.

Each day of the short term we remain in at least marginal risk for
severe storms, with a slight risk area for tomorrow. Damaging winds
are the primary threat. Additionally we are in a marginal to slight
risk for excessive rainfall.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

An upper level trof swinging quickly across north Texas and
southern Oklahoma will support continued daily scattered
thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday evening. The highest PoPs are
situated across south central Louisiana in the vicinity of the
deepest moisture. Given the daily rainfall expected across the
region through the weekend and the prospects for high rainfall
rates, a low end flash flood risk will likely exist during this
time frame. Convection should be quick to dissipate Sunday night
as the upper level support shifts quickly East.

Guidance is in fairly good agreement on a persistent upper level
ridge over northern Mexico building up the Texas gulf coast and
Western Gulf of Mexico putting a lid on the vast majority of
convection Monday through Wednesday. That said, with a surface high
over the eastern gulf streaming a steady dose of low level tropical
air into the region and afternoon highs again climbing into the
upper 80s to lower 90s, a couple of isolated thunderstorms can't be
completely ruled out so opted to maintain 20 PoPs each afternoon.
Outside of that, skies are expected to remain mostly clear with heat
indices topping out around 100.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally VFR currently, but a transition to MVFR/IFR CIGs likely
for some locales overnight. A line of SHRA/+TSRA will slowly move
south and east this evening with reductions in CIGs/VSBYs likely.
Gusty winds in excess of 35 kts possible, with a few gusts to 50
kts possible in the stronger storms. Storms clear from west to
east overnight with another round likely tomorrow afternoon.
Severe weather will once again be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of
the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will
be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms
over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  86  70  85 /  30  70  30  60
LCH  74  86  74  85 /  20  50  20  60
LFT  74  88  75  88 /  40  60  20  50
BPT  75  88  75  87 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87