Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1248 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)

Wx map shows a weak pressure gradient across the area, with light
south winds along and south of the I-10 corridor, calm further
north. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge continues over
Mexico, South Texas, and the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a
broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning
remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid
70s to near 80 across the area. The persistent smoke from Central
America that has spread northward across the Western Gulf of
Mexico and our region is keeping lower visibilities in the 2 to 5
mile range this morning, and likely will continue through
daybreak, with some slow improvement during the day.

For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon
high temperatures expected to reach the lower to mid 90s, with
maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from
100 to 107 degrees. This is just below our heat advisory criteria,
thus will not be re-issuing at this time.

The other issue will be the increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms, around 20-30% over Louisiana, 30-40% over Southeast
Texas as a shortwave upper level disturbance within the northwest
flow aloft affects the region. Some of these thunderstorms could
possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the primary
weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has the area from
Alexandria to Lake Charles westward in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5) for severe thunderstorms, and points eastward in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Most of the
activity expected during the afternoon/early evening hours.

For tonight through Thursday night, expect the mid to upper level
trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen,
eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of
Mexico to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region.
The increased low level moisture, coupled with the periodic
disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, expected to bring
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Expect slightly lower morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
and daytime highs in the 80s due to the increased afternoon cloud
cover.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)

The long term forecast remains fairly consistent with ridging
building in the west and a surface high over the Great Lakes Region.
We will see a few disturbances track across the region during the
second half of the week, while at the same time a surface boundary
will meander across the region.  This set up will lead to an
interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will be
competing against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. Each
afternoon will have the chance for showers and thunderstorms as
daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and subsidence
aloft. During each afternoon PoPs will be in the 30 to 50% range.
However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high clouds
limit day time heating rain chances will drop.

The high pressure to our east will keep a consistent south flow into
the CWA. Dew points will remain stubbornly high in the mid 70s.
Temperatures will be a few degrees higher than typical for this time
of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s and low in the high 60s
to mid 70s. The heat index will peak around 95 each day.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers and storms are currently moving through the area with
impacts to terminals expected late in the afternoon and this
evening. Multiple rounds of activity are expected, with tapering
likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well
into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today through the end of the week.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  85  68 /  30  10  60  30
LCH  91  73  85  73 /  50  20  50  40
LFT  94  74  88  75 /  40  30  30  30
BPT  91  73  88  75 /  50  10  60  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
245 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

LAZ044-045-152>154-252>254-282015-
Upper Vermilion LA-Lower Iberia LA-Lower Vermilion LA-
Upper Iberia LA-Lafayette LA-Lower St. Mary LA-Upper St. Mary LA-
Upper St. Martin LA-
245 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN IBERIA...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY...NORTHEASTERN
VERMILION AND WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISHES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maurice to Sorrel. Movement was southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, New Iberia, Abbeville, Scott, Franklin, St. Martinville,
Jeanerette, Avery Island, Broussard, Youngsville, Baldwin, Erath,
Delcambre, Maurice, Loreauville, Lydia, Acadiana Regional Airport,
Jefferson Island, Sorrel, and Coteau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 2970 9150 2975 9162 2975 9160 2976 9162
      2976 9163 2977 9164 2984 9183 2984 9185
      2998 9219 3023 9212 2995 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 334DEG 8KT 3011 9207 2987 9162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tingler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
246 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SW Beaumont           30.02N 94.21W
05/28/2024  M73 MPH          Jefferson          TX   Public

            Public reports a measured 73 MPH wind gust
            on a personal Ambient Weather Station.

&&

DJ

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