Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
538 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

SFC pressure once again deepening slightly with some stations
showing pressure falling rapidly as an elongated low pressure
moves across the area. The parent H5 closed low continues to
meander in the central/NE gulf, which will bring a few
wraparound showers or even a rumble of thunder as they move
through the region tonight. Best chance to see these showers will
be the eastern half of the CWA.

Tonight the pressure gradient strengthens across the area, with
noticeable 6hr pressure falls on the backside of the departing
low pressure system. This will bring gusty NW winds for much of
the area, especially across the Atchafalaya Basis/I49 corridor.
While there is no Wind Adv at this time, it is possible later
shifts could issue one. Nonetheless, a few gusts to 35 mph seem
likely.

As the storm system moves away later Monday and into Tuesday,
expect a gradual warming trend with dry weather expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

One last day of dry weather is expected on Wednesday as the region
remains under the influence of high pressure ridging at the surface
and aloft. As the ridge system moves east, winds will become more
southerly in the lower levels while shifting southwesterly aloft.
This will enhance moisture advection over the region, with a gradual
increase in clouds as well as humidity levels anticipated through
the day. The daytime period Wednesday should still be rather
pleasant with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures
reaching the upper 60s to around 70.

Clouds will increase further Wednesday night as a warm advection
pattern becomes better established, with overnight lows around 10
degrees warmer than the previous night. Temperatures are expected to
range from the upper 40s central LA to the middle 50s lower SE TX.

Shortwave energy ejecting over the plains Wednesday night into
Thursday will enhance lee cyclogenesis from KS into SD. This will
further strengthen southerly flow over the region, pulling Gulf
moisture into the warm sector. While there is a chance for a few
showers to develop Thursday afternoon across western portions of the
area, convective coverage should remain limited as forecast
soundings depict a pronounced layer of dry air in the midlevels with
decent capping. The cap will begin to erode Thursday night as a weak
boundary slowly sinks into the area, allowing showers to become a
little more scattered across the region, with possibly a few
isolated storms as well.

Moisture will continue to deepen over the area on Friday, with PWATs
climbing possibly as high as 1.4-1.5 inches, which exceeds the 90th
percentile for early February. The weak front will gradually settle
and stall over the region, providing a low level focus for
convection. Weak disturbances passing through the west to southwest
flow aloft will provide modest ascent, maintaining a period of
unsettled weather through Sunday, with increased convective coverage
aligned with the diurnal heating cycle. Given this is the last
weekend before Mardi Gras, there could be some impacts to any
outdoor activities, but conditions do not appear to support a total
washout.

Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with lows
mostly in the middle to upper 50s and highs in the lower 70s.&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

SHRA will develop and move across, mainly the eastern half of the
CWA, through tomorrow morning. This will likely keep lower CIGs
into Monday morning with MVFR/IFR likely.

Gusty NW winds will develop tonight and persist through Monday
afternoon. Sustained winds of 10-20kts with gusts around 30kts
likely. Strongest winds will be across the eastern half of the
CWA, with lesser winds in SETX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

The secondary low pressure center is making its way through the
region. Behind the low, lapse rates and forcing are coming
together to throw up some thunderstorms with small hail and gusty
winds as the primary threat. The corridor where storms are most
likely over the next few hours will be along I-49, so at AEX, LFT
and ARA.

As the sun sets, expect any remaining convection to dissipate
along with falling ceilings. MVFR ceilings can be expected
overnight until tomorrow afternoon when dry air finally washes
through the region and VFR conditions return.

North winds will prevail over the period with a general
strengthening through the night as pressure gradients tighten
behind the departing low. Gusts up to 35 knots are possible
through tomorrow morning. The gradient will slowly relax tomorrow
later in the day.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Small Craft Advisory has been extended until Monday evening with
the gusty NW winds to develop later this evening. These gusty
winds will remain elevated overnight and through the afternoon,
before relaxing by Monday evening.

A few showers will be possible on Monday, before drier air works
in through mid-week. Next chance of showers and possibly storms
late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  46  64  37  64 /  30   0   0   0
LCH  49  64  42  65 /   0  10   0   0
LFT  50  64  42  66 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  51  66  44  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...11

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