Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1158 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Area radar shows a couple of thunderstorms moving into
Hardin and Jefferson county at this time, with more activity back
to our west. Short term models are still in good agreement with
shower and thunderstorm activity increasing further after midnight
(mainly for SE TX), followed by another MCS feature moving across
the region tomorrow around sunrise. Therefore, only made some
small changes to the hourly POP forecast over the remainder of the
overnight period, just to fall more in line with current radar
and CAMs trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

17

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered convection continues to develop across the area this
afternoon in response to a subtle disturbance passing over the
region. This activity continues to develop in a very moist
airmass, with PWATs around 1.70 inches (around the 90th
percentile per SPC Climo). Given the considerable moisture, some
storms could be capable of producing heavy rainfall and very high
rain rates, potentially aggravating ongoing flooding across SE TX.
So far today, a few small cells have produced heavy rains,
yielding increased flows per FLASH data, but convection has not
been particularly robust and the generally progressive nature
has helped limit flash flooding.

Otherwise, the rainy pattern is expected to persist with another
disturbance moving into the region tonight into Sunday. A Flood
Watch has been issued for our SE TX Counties, as any additional
rain over the saturated ground will contribute further to ongoing
flooding.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

This afternoon's convection is expected to diminish by early this
evening. The next round of showers and storms will be forming
across TX and moving into the area later tonight after midnight.
Rain chances will expand and increase from west to east overnight
into Sunday.

PWATs are progged to remain elevated across the region (peaking
between 1.6 and 1.7 inches, or slighter higher). Sufficient lift,
instability and deep layer shear will support organization and
strong updrafts to allow for both heavy rainfall and a low end
severe threat. A few isolated storms could produce a damaging wind
gust or two as well as some marginally severe hail, although
convection will likely weaken as it progresses east. SPC has
outlined a MRGL risk for severe weather given this scenario.

The more impactful threat however continues to be the potential
for heavy rainfall over an area that is already saturated, with
moderate to major river flooding ongoing. WPC has outlined
much of our SE TX areas with a MDT risk for excessive rainfall
tonight into Sunday. The HRRR, ARW and HREF show some of the
highest rainfall accumulations across Tyler, Hardin and Jefferson
Counties (areas that have already received between 8 and 12 inches
of rain over the past week). At this time, blended guidance and
WPC suggest area totals of 1 to 3 inches of rain across this area,
but localized higher totals of up to 6 inches will certainly be
possible (possibly higher if some guidance members verify).

There is still some uncertainty when the rain chances will finally
begin to decrease as the HRRR and ARW suggest one last cluster of
convection will move through early Sunday evening. Rain chances
should begin to diminish after midnight Sunday night, but some low
chances will develop again with daytime heating on Monday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

At the start of the extended period low pressure will be across the
northern plains with weak ridging across the northern gulf coast
into the Atlantic. This is anticipated to produce dry but breezy
conditions across the local area for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures are also expected to run several degrees above climo
normals for the date.

Late in the week, an upper trough and associated surface low will
move across the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. This may push
a cold front to the gulf coast by Friday, however ahead of the
boundary, compressional heating may nudge high temperatures in the
90s north of I-10 Thursday afternoon. Showers and storms may be
possible along the boundary, but overall coverage is only forecast
to be in the 10 to 30% range at the current time. Drier and cooler
temperatures are forecast to filter in behind the boundary for the
weekend.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Earlier VFR is transitioning to MVFR/IFR, mainly for SETX/SW LA,
but will expand area wide into the early morning hours. As we move
into the early morning hours, chances for showers/storms increase
from west to east as well. Expect further reduction in CIGs/VSBYs
under heavier showers/storms.

There remains some uncertainty as to when activity will decrease,
but current thinking is by early Sunday evening for most locales.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas two to four feet will
prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and
storms are again expected to develop tonight into Sunday, then
diminishing Sunday night with rain chances remaining limited
through the week.

24

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

River flooding is expected to persist for several days, and
additional rainfall on Sunday may extend or worsen conditions
within area basins.

Moderate to Major Flooding continues within the Neches River
basin, with major flooding occurring or forecast on the Village
Creek near Kountze, the Pine Island Bayou at Sour Lake and at the
Neches River Saltwater Barrier. Moderate flooding is also expected
along the Sabine River from Bon Wier to Deweyville. Further east,
flooding remains in minor category along the Calcasieu River.

Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website
and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the
river flood threat continues.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  82  66  85 /  30  60  20  30
LCH  71  83  71  84 /  20  40  20  20
LFT  71  85  72  86 /  10  40  20  20
BPT  72  82  71  84 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1227 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

TXZ201-259>262-050600-
Hardin TX-Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-
1227 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM
CDT...

At 1227 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Buna, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kirbyville, Buna, Call, Old Salem, and Trout Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 9412 3052 9408 3053 9407 3054 9407
      3055 9409 3056 9409 3074 9392 3057 9373
      3035 9402 3048 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 226DEG 19KT 3046 9405

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Jones