Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
331 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Afternoon surface analysis shows a weak boundary draped across the
northeastern edge of the CWA, resulting in a more northerly flow
at AEX while W to SW flow continues elsewhere. South of this
boundary, dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s, while dewpoints
across AEX and Ft. Johnson currently sit around 70 degrees. Aloft,
water vapor imagery shows a decent swath of mid-level dry air
draped across roughly the lower 2/3rd of the forecast area,
along a rough line extending from near/south of Beaumont to
Alexandria. This dry air has kept shower activity mostly at bay
across southwest and south central LA today, while on the
contrary, showers have steadily increased in coverage across
inland SE TX through the last few hours. Although some CAMs
guidance wants to induce shower activity across Acadiana through
the next couple of hours, this seems rather unlikely beyond a very
light shower or two due to the presence of dry air overhead.
Regardless, expect any lingering convection to taper off post-
sunset this evening per-usual, giving way to another warm and
muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Tomorrow into the weekend mid-level ridging will begin to slowly
build back overhead from the west. Ridging overhead will likely be
fairly weak tomorrow, before settling overhead by Saturday. This
will result in decent rain chances tomorrow, especially across
Acadiana where any influence from the ridge will be less. By Sat,
rain chances reduce further area-wide, but Acadiana still looks to
have the best chance out of anybody. Any precip tomorrow and
Saturday will be typical pop-up daytime heating showers, with
coverage peaking through the afternoon and dying with sunset.
Temperature wise, we again warm into the low to mid 90s both
tomorrow and Saturday, while overnight lows fall into the mid 70s
to low 80s. Heat indices look borderline for an advisory
tomorrow, mainly for interior SE TX, with an advisory looking more
likely for Saturday for a larger portion of the region.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

By Sunday, the an upper level ridge of high pressure situated over
the Southern Plains continues to build with a slight shift of the
center ridge axis toward the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile a
downstream low pressure complex north of Maine will extend a frontal
boundary across the Appalachia to the ARKALEX with generally more
humid / unstable remaining south of the frontal boundary. Thus,
while mid to upper level dry layers are expected, Isolated to
scattered surface based convection is not out of the question which
currently has been favored toward the Acadiana region leading into
eastern portions of LA. Heat will also be a likely headline with
temperatures nearing 100°F and Heat Indices breaching 110°F among
the interior SETX counties and some interior SWLA parishes which
will likely be realized for locations outside of any precipitation
or prolonged cloudy cover. Similar conditions are expected to
persist Monday with winds veering a little more SW’ly throughout the
day, however, signals of precipitation appear to be less with little
to no forcing mechanism amid forecast persisting ridge. Thus heat
related headlines appear favorable into the early work week.
Hereafter continuing through the remainder of the mid week,
temperatures will continue to remain very warm to hot in the mid to
upper 90’s, with the upper ranges keep to the interior counties and
parishes. POPS do not fully exit the forecast area, but the more
favorable signal for organized precipitation tend to drop off with
Isolated diurnal convection more favorable along coastal / southern
portions of the TX and LA. Meanwhile the upper level high pressure
ridge shows signs of breaking down toward the end of the week.

 Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Light west to southwest winds and mainly VFR ceilings will prevail
through the afternoon. A few isolated showers will be possible
through the next few hours as well, mainly for the I-10 terminals.
Some of this convection may become heavy at times and be capable
of briefly reducing VIS if they move across the terminals. Shower
activity should taper off with sunset with light winds and VFR
ceilings then continuing through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go
along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days,
scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  95  76  96 /   0  20   0  20
LCH  76  91  79  91 /  20  40  10  20
LFT  76  92  79  93 /  40  70  10  40
BPT  77  93  79  93 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17