Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
528 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the
Carolina coast remaining in control with a srly low-level flow
generally in place. Water vapor imagery shows weak troffing trying
to take over the wrn Gulf region, with the ridge axis currently
extending from cntl Mexico nnewd to the cntl Plains. Meanwhile, we
continue to see shortwave activity rounding the ridge...one
impulse is noted departing the region while another can be seen
upstream entering the Red River Valley. Earlier convection which
was helped in part by the initial vort has largely moved out of
the area, although additional convection is now developing with
heating along with resultant mesoscale/outflow boundaries.
Otherwise, sfc obs/satellite imagery show a variably cloudy and
seasonably warm day ongoing across the area.

With a somewhat diurnal pattern now in place, expecting this
afternoon's convection to again linger into the evening hours
before sunset/loss of heating leads to a gradual dissipation. The
main fly in the ointment is a developing MCS churned out by the
upstream shortwave currently impacting the Texoma region. None of
the guidance is super excited by the idea of this activity holding
together to push into the area later this evening...but with the
CAMs not performing very well of recent, will certainly have to
watch how this upstream feature plays out. Meanwhile, with such
abundant boundary layer moisture available, along with relaxing
winds, patchy fog development looks possible late tonight, mainly
I-10 nwd where lighter winds are anticipated.

Today's forecast for Monday show a little better rain chances than
previous days as the shortwave responsible for the upstream
convection will temporarily shunt ridge development over the wrn
Gulf region. And combined with good Gulf moisture remaining
in place (forecast soundings indicating mean RH values to 60
percent and PWAT values exceeding 1.7 inches), widely scattered
convection is expected again with heating during the afternoon
hours (POPs look a little higher over the Atchafalaya
Basin where capping is expected to be least). Whatever convection
develops should again diminish with sunset.

Tuesday is looking like a bit of a repeat, although with a drier
wrly mid-level flow now in place, rain chances look a little
slimmer despite the likely approach of yet another shortwave
aloft.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A repetitive, seasonal forecast looks to persist throughout the long
term as the synoptic pattern remains fairly stagnant. On Wednesday,
a deepening trough over the northern Plains/Canada will slide east
creating a large scale weakness across the E CONUS, while to our
west, ridging will be gradually building over the Rockies/Four
Corners region. From Thurs into Sat the trough will dive towards New
England while ridging will build east across TX. This will result in
mainly light NW flow aloft over the forecast area throughout the
long term period. At the surface, weak high pressure to our east
will result in a light onshore flow throughout most of the period.
Only exception will be late Fri when a weak boundary looks to move
into the area resulting in a brief period of variable to westerly
flow.

With ridging to our west and little in the way of forcing aloft,
daily shower and thunderstorm activity will be minimal throughout
the long term, and any convection will be largely driven by daytime
heating. NBM paints 15-20% POPs for each afternoon through the end
of the weekend to account for these typical diurnally driven
thunderstorms. Temperature wise, daytime highs should warm into the
lower 90s each day, while overnight lows will fall into the low to
mid 70s, which is near seasonal norms. In addition, apparent
temps/heat indices should peak in the upper 90s to lower 100s each
day.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Main area of strong to severe TSRA over Western Louisiana along
remnant outflow boundary far away from terminals, so will be
ending the VCTS at this time. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings expected
by 09z through 15z. Southeast winds 10-12 kts expected to remain
elevated around 5-7 kts later this evening and overnight,
increasing by 15z to 8-10 kts, and becoming south 12-16 kts with
gusts 20-24 kts by 18z Monday. Higher chances (30-40%) of TSRA
for eastern terminals Monday afternoon, with VCTS beginning
around 17-18Z with a PROB30 group from 19-24z for all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Onshore flow is expected to begin gradually increasing tonight,
with caution conditions forecasted by Monday night as the gradient
tightens thanks to lower pressures over the srn Plains. These
elevated winds are progged to linger into mid-week before
settling.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  89  73  91 /  30  30  20  20
LCH  75  88  77  88 /  30  20  10  10
LFT  76  90  77  91 /  40  40  20  20
BPT  76  90  77  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...08

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