Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1141 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Warm and humid conditions persist across the region, with
afternoon temperatures reaching well above seasonal averages.
Highs are expected in the lower to mid 80s, while overnight lows
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. By the weekend, a
small temperature decrease is anticipated as cloud cover and
precipitation chances increase.

Hurricane Rafael is currently positioned in the central GoM, where
it is forecast to meander over the next few days then weaken.
Although no direct impacts from Rafael are expected in our area,
an increase in atmospheric moisture is anticipated as the system
moves westward across the Gulf and a cold front approaches from
the west. This influx of moisture will enhance PoPs, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
overnight into tomorrow morning.

By tomorrow, the cutoff low currently over NM will begin to shift
NE into the Central Plains, and the cold front will continue its
slow progression across the Southern Plains. The front is expected
to stall over SETX by late Saturday. This boundary, combined with
enhanced moisture advection from Rafael, will support widespread
precipitation across the region. Although severe weather is still
not expected, localized heavy rainfall may lead to flooding
concerns, particularly in central Louisiana. WPC has placed much
of the CWA under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, with
portions of CenLA included in a Moderate Risk for flooding. Rain
will be ongoing Sunday, however taper that morning into afternoon,
hence the Marginal Risk ERO across the LA Parishes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The extended is anticipated to be a more fall-like period with
cooler and generally dry weather expected.

The remnants of Rafael will still be meandering in the central gulf
to start next week with the circulation entraining a drier airmass
from Texas and Louisiana. While a few showers may be possible
Monday, amounts are anticipated to be light. Clouds may still be
streaming across the region Tuesday, but with Rafael weakening
farther minimal rain chances will continue to decrease. Temperatures
for early in the week will be slightly cooler than the short term
with highs around 80 and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, which is
still above climo norms for the date.

Wednesday a short wave will sweep across the plains with a cold front
diving south to the gulf coast. A cooler and drier airmass will
filter in as high pressure moves south. Guidance is beginning to
indicate temperatures returning to near normal values late next week
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

No changes to previous TAF thinking...

In the near term, expect VFR conditions to generally prevail with
scattered light showers possible mainly around KAEX. Later this
evening, expecting lower ceilings to begin developing as low-level
moisture pools. Guidance indicates showers becoming more
widespread from west to east late tonight into Saturday morning.
Thunder will be possible at generally any time once the rain
coverage increases...however, tried to pin point best potential as
far as timing goes which appears to be the morning and afternoon
rounds as subtle disturbances pass.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late this evening
into the weekend. Winds and seas have ramped up and will remain
elevated through at least Sun morning hence the temporal extension
of the small craft advisories. Hurricane Rafael is in the central
GoM and is forecast to meander about and weaken into early next
week. For the latest information, visit the National Hurricane
Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  76  66  78 /  70  80  90  50
LCH  72  78  70  81 /  70  80  60  40
LFT  74  84  73  81 /  50  70  70  50
BPT  72  80  70  84 /  70  70  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from 3 AM CST Saturday through late Saturday night
     for LAZ027>033-141>143-241>243.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CST Saturday for LAZ073-074-
     241-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 AM CST Saturday through late Saturday night
     for TXZ180-259-260.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CST Saturday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...25