Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
715 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are anticipated to move into the area late this
  afternoon and evening, with potential for very large hail,
  damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

- Confidence in potential for a high impact event is increasing
  for late Sunday afternoon/evening, for a line of severe
  thunderstorms capable of producing widespread wind gusts at
  or above 70mph across central and western Nebraska.

- Additional threats for thunderstorms exist Monday and Tuesday,
  though the threat for any severe weather remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms that brought some large hail to portions of
western Nebraska before daybreak have moved off to the east and
dissipated. Visible satellite shows that an earlier well defined bubble
high over central Nebraska and a lingering outflow boundary have
started to erode under strong diurnal mixing, but anticipate hints of
the boundary will linger for a bit. Further upstream thunderstorms have
started to develop over the higher terrain in Wyoming and Colorado with
a dry line extending from southeast WY down through eastern Colorado.

Anticipate the dry line will push eastward and generate new convection
that will grow upscale as it encounters more moisture and surface based
CAPE values at or above 2500J/kg. The environment is well sheared with
0-6km bulk shear values at or above 40kt and long hodographs that
develop better curvature as the convection moves into western and
southwest Nebraska early this evening, along with lapse rates at least
moderately steep surface and aloft. Initial mode of convection looks to
be supercells that will build southeastward sliding along the ribbon of
unstable air from the western sandhills through southwest Nebraska into
northeastern Kansas. Initial storms closest to where the dry line moves
into the axis of unstable air from about Hwy 61 westward will be
capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging winds, and an
isolated tornado. Later this evening into early tonight as storms move
thorugh southwest/south central Nebraska generally along/south of I-80
there may be some clustering of storms into a loose MCS as outflows
consolidate with primarily wind/hail threats before diminishing and
moving off to the east before Midnight. With the expected slow movement
of storms there will also be potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flooding. Lingering elevated instability and an amplifying low level
jet will maintain an opportunity to for isolated/widely scattered
storms going overnight but with the axis of the jet shifting east any
activity before sunrise may be confined to Hwy 183 eastward or possibly
even Hwy 281 east.

We get a break in convection Sunday morning but the break will be
brief as a cold front approaching from the west. The airmass will
rapidly destabilize ahead of the front with surface based CAPE values
at or above 2500J/kg and steep lapse rates aloft. Some mid level
drying and a small inverted-v evident in model soundings near the
surface will boost DCAPE values to around 1500J/kg and present
a good signal for potential of significant winds. Anticipate
convection will develop ahead of the front entering the western
sandhills mid to late afternoon, then rapidly grow upscale into
a linear MCS that will cross the entire region through Sunday
evening before exiting to the east before Midnight. The majority
of mesoscale guidance is in good agreement depicting potential
for a high impact event with potential for winds at or above
70mph over a fairly large area, along with large hail, late
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. This bears close
watching, especially for anyone traveling or with outdoor plans.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Progressive flow regime with a series of shallow trofs moving
through the northern tier of states will keep active weather
across central and western Nebraska into the first part of next
week before a large ridge starts to build over the western US.
Additional thunderstorm threats will persist into Monday and
Tuesday, though confidence is not high with respect location and
timing of best thunderstorm potential. Drier conditions are then
expected into midweek as the western ridge builds. Differences
in guidance locations of features creates uncertainty late week
and beyond, but will have to watch for potential of thunderstorm
development late next week in northwest flow aloft depending on
exactly where the upper ridge becomes established.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to impact western through
central Nebraska tonight. Gusty winds and hail could accompany
the strongest storms. Outside of any thunderstorm activity
expect VFR conditions to prevail with south to southeast winds
at 10-15 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-021930-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 /130 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
evening across western Nebraska. These will move east across the
area this evening. The primary threats are large to very large hail,
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across the area. Large hail and damaging winds
in excess of 75 miles per hour are the main severe threats.

Thunderstorms are possible again Monday and Tuesday across much of
western and north central Nebraska. At this time, the severe threat
is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Taylor

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
852 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     Hail             Rushville               42.71N 102.47W
06/01/2024  M1.00 Inch       Sheridan           NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
801 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

NEZ004-094-020245-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
801 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM MDT...

At 801 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of White Clay to 7 miles
southwest of Gordon. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Gordon around 810 PM MDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Hoover Lake,
Intersection of Highway 87 and Craven Creek Road, Lone Butte, Irwin,
Intersection of Highway 87 and Larabee Road, Mount Maria, Clinton,
Shell Lake State Wildlife Management Area, and Intersection of
Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 93 and 116, and between
mile markers 125 and 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10197 4289 10179 4265 10232 4289 10270
      4300 10253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 237DEG 19KT 4288 10255 4274 10232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
830 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

NEZ069-020315-
Chase NE-
830 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHASE COUNTY
THROUGH 915 PM MDT...

At 830 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Champion, or 13 miles southwest of Imperial,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Champion and Crete.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 25 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 10199 4050 10179 4036 10148 4035 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 301DEG 13KT 4037 10180

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
952 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

NEZ094-020330-
Western Cherry NE-
952 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY THROUGH
1030 PM CDT...

At 951 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 17 miles south of Medicine Lake, or 39 miles southeast
of Gordon, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Indian Hill, Schoolhouse Lake, Steer Creek Campground, and Round
Lake.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 192 and 196.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4235 10167 4250 10175 4282 10118 4245 10099
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 243DEG 38KT 4249 10155

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Taylor

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