Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
  this evening, mainly affecting northern Nebraska. The hazards
  are severe wind gusts, large hail and the potential for
  landspouts or an isolated tornado.

- The next chance for severe weather arrives Sunday and lasts
  through Tuesday. It is important to note the area of concern for
  severe weather appears to be mostly south and east of wrn and
  ncntl Nebraska. Changes in the forecast location of the severe
  weather are likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A fairly vigorous and compact upper level low circulating across ern
WY/wrn SD this afternoon will move east through SD tonight. This
storm system produced about 20 or so severe wind reports across ID
Monday but is poised to produce less severe weather across wrn and
ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and this evening.

The severe weather concerns according to the RAP and HRRR are wind
gusts, large hail and the potential for landspouts and an isolated
tornado. The focus for severe weather this afternoon revolves around
a developing triple point across the Sandhills but the latest HRRR
and RAP model solutions suggest this feature is less pronounced. The
reason for this is that the Pacific front behind the dry surge is
rapidly overtaking this surge of dry air. Still, a triple pt should
develop near highway 83 by 00z. Isolated severe storm development is
possible along or just north of this area.

Another strong or severe storm could develop post-frontal across
nwrn Nebraska this afternoon posing a severe wind threat and perhaps
a marginal severe hail threat. A third area for isolated strong
storm development is possible in the deeply mixed super-heated air
across swrn Nebraska.

The storm activity across the north will move east through ncntl
Nebraska this evening while the activity south moves toward KS. The
latest HRRR/RAP model runs are showing potential for upscale growth
in both areas and the HRRR indicates the upscale growth across ncntl
Nebraska could lead to strong/severe wind gusts later this evening.

Winds aloft at h500mb will be strong near 40kts for this event and
the MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG in spots suggests isolated supercell
potential. Across much of the region it appears the strong shear
relative to the modest instability will limit severe storm coverage
to isolated. The BRN is less than 25 across much of ncntl Nebraska
this evening, according to the models.

Satellite shows a second upper low across ern ID/wrn WY this
afternoon; very close to the lead disturbance. It is extremely
unusual for two storm systems to be located so close together. The
result will likely be a second round of elevated, mainly diurnally
forced, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

POPs tonight and Wednesday lean on the short term model blend plus
the HRRR and RAP models. A limiter caps rain chances at 60 percent
tonight and this might be generous given the spartan storm
coverage suggested by the HRRR and RAP models. Scattered POPs are in
place Wednesday. The loss of diurnal heating Wednesday night should
present a dry forecast from late Wednesday evening onward.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A dry forecast is in place Thursday through Saturday.

The next substantial rain chance is Sunday and Monday and the
GFS, the faster model, has been advertising this for several model
runs. The ECM and GEM have sped up matching the timing of the GFS. A
long wave trof should build into the the wrn U.S. this weekend
drawing a belt of strong subtropical winds north toward Nebraska.
Winds aloft will become very strong, 50-70kts at h300mb, and this
belt of strong winds will be mostly focused south and east of
wrn/ncntl Nebraska.

Likely POPs are in place across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Sunday and Monday
for disturbances rotating northeast through the trof. Chance POPs
are in place Tuesday. The better chances for severe weather appear
to be south and east and this is based on the location of a sfc low
the models show across wrn KS. If the low forms further north or
west, wrn/ncntl Nebraska would be favored.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across northern Nebraska
through ~03Z, impacting KVTN. This activity will exit towards
the north and east with broken to overcast MVFR ceilings left in
it's wake across northern Nebraska overnight. A brief period of
IFR ceilings will be possible Thursday morning into early
afternoon for KVTN. For KLBF, ceilings are expected to remain
low-end VFR through the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Thursday mid-morning for both terminals, however,
confidence remains far too low in regards to specific timing and
impacts. Future amendments and inclusions are likely with
subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Viken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-152015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
306 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 /206 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An upper level disturbance and surface trough will approach western
and north central Nebraska early this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along this feature. Some storms
may be severe with gusty winds and hail up to quarter size. An
isolated tornado is possible over north central Nebraska into the
early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms exist throughout the rest of the
week with the severe weather potential generally being low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight

CLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
730 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

NEZ006-008-009-150115-
Brown NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-
730 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ROCK...NORTHEASTERN
BROWN...NORTHWESTERN HOLT...KEYA PAHA AND WESTERN BOYD COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Wewela to 8 miles northeast of
Springview to 7 miles north of Long Pine. Movement was east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bassett, Springview, Newport, Burton, Keller Park State Recreation
Area, Nets Peak, Thomas Creek State Wildlife Management Area,
Mariaville, Pine Glen State Wildlife Refuge, Mills, Brocksburg, and
Meadville.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 181 and 182, and between mile
markers 199 and 225.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 257 and 273.
 Highway 12 near mile marker 40, and between mile markers 46 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4247 9925 4265 9987 4300 9983 4300 9926
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 282DEG 19KT 4301 9965 4288 9960 4265 9970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
750 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

NEZ058-059-069-070-150115-
Chase NE-Hayes NE-Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-
750 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS...
NORTHEASTERN CHASE...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN HAYES
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT/715 PM MDT/...

At 750 PM CDT/650 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles south of Elsie, or 19 miles northwest of Hayes
Center, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Perkins, northeastern Chase, southwestern Lincoln and northwestern
Hayes Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 10142 4077 10141 4081 10092 4054 10093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 272DEG 20KT 4069 10131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
805 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Hail             3 NW Burton             42.94N 99.63W
05/14/2024  E0.88 Inch       Keya Paha          NE   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported pea to nickel sized
            hail. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CR

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