Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning across north
  central Nebraska with visibilities down to 1 mile at times.

* Marginal risk (risk 1 of 5) of isolated thunderstorms are expected
  across north central Nebraska this afternoon and again
  tonight/Friday morning across southwest Nebraska with strong winds
  being the main threat both timeframes.

* Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through
  the middle of next week as highs rise into the mid 80s to low 90s
  and lows drop into the upper 50s to low 60s.

* Near daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
  end of the week, although, the severe potential remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Patchy fog will continue to overspread portions of north central
Nebraska in the wake of some light convection and showers. Latest
observations show visibilities dropping to near 1 mile at times
(locally lower in river valleys and low lying areas). Plenty of low
level moisture and light winds will keep fog around through mid-
morning before diminishing after the sun rises and the boundary
layer mixes.

While the majority of Thursday will be pleasant and dry, there is a
potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
northern north central Nebraska this afternoon. A upper level trough
will track across the region helping to initiate some convection
across the north. With moderate instability and plenty of low level
moisture across this area, some of these storms may become strong to
briefly severe before pushing into eastern Nebraska by late
afternoon. Strong winds up to 50 mph will be the main threat,
however, some small hail (under an inch), is possible with this
afternoon convection.

In addition, some diurnally driven convection is expected to develop
off the Front Ranges and push eastward during the evening hours. The
majority of these thunderstorms will be to the south (across Kansas)
but a few storms may graze extreme southwest Nebraska (Chase,
Perkins, Hayes counties). Again, storms will generally be just below
severe limits, but with plenty of low level moisture combined with a
strengthening low level jet in the evening, a stronger to briefly
severe storm may still be possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60
mph will be possible during the evening hours. These storms may last
into sunrise Friday morning before diminishing by late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A fairly active weather pattern remains in place through the end of
the middle of next week as a series of disturbances continues to
impact the region. Near-daily thunderstorm and rain chances are
expected, occurring mainly in the late afternoon and early evening
as they will be primarily diurnally driven. At this time, the best
chance for thunderstorm development will occur on Sunday and Monday
nights, but any thunderstorms that develop are not anticipated to
become severe. Will continue to monitor the environment over the
next few days as the models get a better handle on these systems.

Temperatures will remain near normal in the mid 80s to low 90s
through next week. Low temperatures will also be near to slightly
above normal (normal lows in the upper 50s to low 60s) as they are
forecasted to drop into upper 50s to mid 60s through next
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Radar trends show another round of convection pushing down from
the northwest into Nebraska early this morning. Will go with a
TEMPO for KVTN to cover the latest radar trends for the next
couple of hours with KLBF remaining dry. These showers/storms
will exit eastward this afternoon with redevelopment expected
late in the day. With isolated nature and lack of confidence in
specific timing/location will not mention with this issuance.

Aside from this early convection, expect VFR conditions with
mainly mid/high clouds into this afternoon. May see some gusts
20 to 25kt with good mixing Thursday afternoon especially at
KVTN. After diurnal convection wanes, additional widely
scattered convection may develop and push up from the southwest
overnight. However with probabilities generally 30 percent or
less will not mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-161630-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 /1025 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may briefly approach severe
levels with large hail and damaging wind gusts across portions of
Holt, Garfield, and Wheeler counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter is not expected this afternoon.

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
934 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

NEZ006-008-009-151515-
Brown NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-
934 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROCK...NORTHEASTERN
BROWN AND SOUTHERN KEYA PAHA COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM CDT...

At 934 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 10 miles northeast of Johnstown, or 12 miles northwest
of Ainsworth, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bassett, Springview, Long Pine, Keller Park State Recreation Area,
Thomas Creek State Wildlife Management Area, Mariaville, Bobcat State
Wildlife Management Area, Pine Glen State Wildlife Refuge, Antelope
Peak, Meadville, and North River Trail.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 177 and 213.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 246 and 266.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 40 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4261 10008 4283 10003 4282 9932 4247 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 283DEG 28KT 4271 9997

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1103 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

NEZ010-151645-
Holt NE-
1103 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY THROUGH
1145 AM CDT...

At 1103 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Amelia, or 12 miles southwest of O'Neill, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Holt
County, including the following locations... Inman.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 311 and 323.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 167 and 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 9897 4248 9893 4241 9838 4215 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 282DEG 27KT 4237 9886

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Taylor