Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across
  western Nebraska this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. A
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains for north central
  Nebraska. Primary threats remain wind and hail, though a
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Near daily risk of showers and thunderstorms across the area
  through Thursday, with the potential for beneficial rainfall.

- Temperatures gradually warm and return to near seasonal
  normals by mid week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper level analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveal a
shortwave trough south central Wyoming, providing upper level lift
for this afternoon and evening's severe storm threat. At the
surface, a low pressure system is located in southeast Wyoming, with
a warm front through the Nebraska Panhandle. A large area of stratus
has slowly moved eastward, mostly along and east of Highway 83. This
stratus deck has limited daytime heating potential, keeping
temperatures on the cooler side for daytime highs and also limiting
the build up of CAPE across western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Convective initiation is underway across portions of southwest South
Dakota and southeast Wyoming this afternoon. Although the persistent
stratus today limited the building of CAPE, recent clearing has
allowed for some build up of MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across
portions of the Panhandle. Effective shear values remain quite
supportive of severe weather this afternoon and evening. The
environment continues to ripen for supercell activity later this
afternoon and evening. While the primary threats remain for large
hail and damaging wind gusts, the low level helicity may be enhanced
enough in vicinity of the warm front to the point that a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Another thing worth keeping an eye on
with thunderstorms this evening will be the rain potential. PWAT
values around 1.25 inches fall between the 75th and 90th percentile
for early August, so storms could be quite efficient rain producers.
Expecting the higher rain amounts will be across north central
Nebraska this evening with more training and clustering cells moving
in from South Dakota. In general, expecting between half an inch to
one inch, though locally heavier amounts are possible.

As storms move out tonight, stratus clouds return overnight, keeping
overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. With recent rainfall and
fairly light winds, there is a decent chance for patchy fog to
develop overnight, mainly along and south of Interstate 80.

For Monday, an upper level ridge will attempt to push in from the
west and attempt to settle over western Nebraska. A shortwave
pushing through the upper level flow may provide enough upper level
support for a surface boundary to generate storms across eastern
Wyoming and Colorado. Storms should continue to push eastward into
southwest Nebraska, bringing another chance of precipitation.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper level ridging is expected to be fully settled over western
Nebraska by early Tuesday morning. Guidance picks up on a few
embedded shortwaves tracking through the upper level flow throughout
the week. This will keep a near daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska through
Thursday. This is further reinforced by decent low level moisture
advection through the week, so certainly could bring beneficial
rainfall across the region. By late week, another ridge begins to
set up, which begins to limit the rain chances to around 20 percent.
Also worth mentioning, as the shortwaves continue to push through
this week, this should help limit temperatures a little bit under
the ridging. Expecting that temperatures will warm up, but only to
near seasonal average through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A few aviation weather concerns exist for western and north
central Nebraska terminals through the forecast period,
including low ceilings, fog, thunderstorms, and gusty wind. An
expansive low stratus cloud deck is resulting in MVFR to IFR,
which may hold through the afternoon, especially from LBF to VTN
and east. Gusty south winds will also continue through the
afternoon for northern terminals (VTN). Scattered thunderstorms
will then develop across the far west and spread east through
the evening, potentially affecting LBF to VTN around 12/00z. In
the storms wake, ceilings will drop further overnight. Fog/mist
will also likely set in during the pre-dawn hours and
potentially reach LIFR levels.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
320 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 /220 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move from western Nebraska into the
Sandhills through the evening. Some of the storms may be severe,
with the greatest potential generally along and west of Highway 83.
Large hail and strong winds are the primary threats, although a
tornado also cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rain is possible,
especially for north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Near daily thunderstorms continue through week, with the greatest
coverage and potential occurring through Tuesday. Some of storms
Tuesday afternoon and evening may be severe for areas west of Highway
83, with hail and wind being the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please report hail, strong winds,
and other severe weather to NWS North Platte.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

NEZ004-112200-
Sheridan NE-
321 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM MDT...

At 320 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Box Butte Dam, or 18 miles southwest of Hay Springs, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond Lake and Smith Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 9 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 10277 4246 10213 4214 10234 4227 10275
      4244 10275 4244 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 291DEG 37KT 4251 10298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH