Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorm chances are the main concern late this afternoon
 and especially this evening. Strong gusty winds would be the
 main threat across portions of southwest Nebraska this evening.

-Cooler and showery weather is expected both Thursday and
 Friday. Friday highs across portions of the region have the
 potential of being the coolest since August 1997.

-Temperatures do moderate during the weekend, but will still
 remain below normal.

-Areas of the next several days could see between 1-2" of
 rainfall. The precipitation will be showery/convective in
 nature, so amounts will likely vary with some not seeing those
 types of amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

A cold front is moving slowly southward through the Sandhills this
afternoon. South of this front low-level southeasterly upslope flow
is helping to maintain a moist instability axis from southwest
Nebraska into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of a
eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado late this afternoon ahead of
an approaching shortwave. Effective shear profiles/instability are
supportive of storm organization across the central and southern
Panhandle late this afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR and CAMs
suggest a cold pool will form with a damaging wind threat becoming
possible as storms accelerate southeastward across southwest
Nebraska this evening. Other storms may develop along the southward
sagging front across portions of north central Nebraska as mid-level
FGEN increases after early evening. The most intense storms should
exit the area by later this evening, but favorable jet dynamics and
mid-level FGEN will remain in place through Friday morning. This
seems a good set up for at least scattered showers. Elevated weak
instability remains so some thunder is also possible.

The other story will be the much cooler temperatures that will
filter south into the region behind the cold front. Friday looks
particularly cool, with the lingering cloud cover and possible
morning light precipitation. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 60s
across portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The last
time North Platte experienced a high of 65 degrees or cooler was
August 11, 1997. Highs are forecast to be right around this mark, so
this is an exceptionally cool pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

Below normal temperatures are expected through this weekend into
the first of next week. Northwest flow aloft will persist, and a
series of weak shortwaves will bring an increasing chance for
showers/thunder back to the area Sunday night into Monday.

Highs through the weekend should generally average in the lower to
mid 70s. Highs Monday may moderate slightly, but with increased
cloud cover and showers around may be hard pressed to reach much
above 80.

By the middle and end of next week, upper level ridging aloft begins
to expand northward once again across the Rockies and western high
plains. This will bring a return to at least normal temperatures.
Monsoonal sub-tropical appears to develop northward within the
expanding ridge. This will likely bring diurnal rounds of convection
to the higher elevations of Colorado and Wyoming. Some of this
activity may try and work eastward during the overnight hours, so
there will be at least some chance for spotty rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected across western and north central
Nebraska tonight outside of thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms
this evening and tonight may result in brief MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds across the Sandhills into southwest
Nebraska, potentially impacting LBF. Timing of activity at LBF
anticipated between 03Z to 05Z Thursday with the bulk of any
thunderstorms remaining south of VTN.  Will rely
heavily on radar and satellite trends for possible amendments.

Stratus development appears likely across western
and southwestern Nebraska Thursday morning, with IFR CIGs
anticipated. Though this appears to remain south and west of
KLBF, this will need to be monitored with subsequent TAFs.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Viken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
315 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
315 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 /215 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening
across western and north central Nebraska. A few storms could be
strong to severe, with the main hazards being large hail, damaging
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorm chances are expected through Sunday, though
the threat for severe weather appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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