Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorm chances both this afternoon and evening
  and tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- Hot and humid conditions will combine to create potentially
  dangerous heat index readings Tuesday.

- A mainly dry and warm pattern develops late in the week and
  continues into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

H5 analysis from this morning had a fairly low amplitude pattern
across most of the CONUS. Closed low pressure was located over
Cape Cod. Further west, a strong shortwave trough extended from
northern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. Across the central
and southern plains, low amplitude ridging extended from north
central Texas into western Nebraska. Further north, a shortwave
was noted over northern North Dakota. One last feature of note
was a shortwave trough which extended from southwestern British
Columbia south into northern California. At the surface, a weak
surface trough of low pressure extended across the western
Sandhills into western Kansas. Weak low pressure was noted over
far northeastern South Dakota, as well as far southwestern
Kansas. Abundant low level moisture was present across the
eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon as 70+ dew
points were noted at Broken bow and extended east into the
eastern Sandhills and east ern Nebraska. Elsewhere, with the
exception of the eastern panhandle, dew points were in the 60s.
As of 2 PM CDT, under mostly clear skies, temperatures ranged
from 88 degrees at O'Neill, to 94 degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

The threat for thunderstorms and dangerous heat over the next
12 to 36 hours will be the main forecasting concerns in the
short term. For tonight we have a conditional threat for severe
storms across northern portions of the forecast area. Forecast
soundings indicate a heavily capped environment over the eastern
2/3rds of the forecast area. This is in an area with plenty of
available CAPE and shear for severe storms. If, and only if, we
can get some initiation over the northwestern Sandhills in the
next 2 to 4 hours, we shouldn't see much in the way of
convection tonight. However, if we do get initiation, the mid
and upper level dynamics indicate strong potential for severe
storms. Large hail and damaging winds are the main modes late
this afternoon and evening. Linear hodographs, favor very large
hail and 40 to 50kt and 60-70 KT winds at H5 and H25
respectively, will provide plenty of wind shear aloft to
facilitate severe storms. Heading forward into the evening
hours, a damaging wind threat will accompany the large hail
threat as activity moves into northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The threat for thunderstorms will shift east of
the area overnight. The HRRR at 12z this morning indicated a
secondary area of precipitation toward daybreak Tuesday morning
in the east. This was not supported by the other CAMS, and will
leave this out of the forecast with this afternoon's package. On
Tuesday, a dryline will be forced east approaching the highway
83 corridor Tuesday afternoon. West of this feature, H85 temps
will reach 31-33C with drier BL air noted over the western third
of the forecast area. Further east, moisture pools just to the
east of the dryline with dew points in the upper 60s to lower
70s Tuesday afternoon. The combination of these dew points along
with expected highs in the upper 90s east of highway 83 Tuesday
afternoon, will lead to an extended period of heat indices of
100 to 105. That being said, will hoist a heat advisory from
noon to 8 PM CT Tuesday, east of highway 83. Late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, another round of isolated
thunderstorms appears to be possible over northeastern portions
of the forecast area. This threat will be conditional once again
as we remain capped for a large portion of the day. If storms
can initiate, they will have a good potential to become severe
given 40 to 50 KTS of bulk layer shear and SB CAPES of 4000 to
5500 J/KG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

On Wednesday, a northern stream trough will approach the
western Dakotas and western Nebraska. The latest deterministic
NAM12 and GFS solns have the bulk of thunderstorms over eastern
South Dakota and eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon/evening.
The latest NBM soln does have some low pops in the eastern third
of the forecast area and this seems plausible given the model
solns this morning. After Wednesday night, we will see a re-
establishment of ridging and high pressure over the western
CONUS. This will place the FA in weak northerly flow aloft into
the first half of the weekend leading to very limited chances
for precipitation and very warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the northern
Sandhills this evening. This could impact KVTN, KANW, KONL and
KTIF terminals, with gusty erratic winds and large hail the
main concern. Storms are expected to be out of the area by
midnight and VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the period.
Winds will remain light overnight, generally less than 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ006>010-
026>029-038-059-071.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
350 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 /250 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
this evening. The area of concern covers much western and north
central Nebraska, with the best chance generally along and north of
Highway 2. The hazards are very large hail, damaging wind gusts of
75 mph or stronger, and the potential for a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north central
Nebraska Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary hazards are large hail
and damaging winds.

Dangerous heat is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening
for areas east of Highway 83. Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees
are expected in this area.

Hot and dry air across western Nebraska Tuesday will lower afternoon
humidity to less than 20 percent. Fire weather conditions will be
elevated in this area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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