Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through western
  and north central Nebraska late this afternoon and tonight.
  Although the risk of severe weather is low, some storms may
  produce small hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot weather will begin building into wrn Nebraska Wednesday
  and high temperatures in the 90s are expected across all of
  wrn and ncntl Nebraska Friday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

A weak UA disturbance across wrn SD this morning dropped into wrn
Nebraska this afternoon setting off isolated ordinary thunderstorms.
A second stronger disturbance across srn ND this morning is moving
south through cntl SD this aftn and satellite shows a distinct
circulation has formed. Satellite timing tools backed by the RAP
model show this disturbance moving through ncntl Nebraska this
evening and overnight. The disturbance will continue moving south
tonight and then mostly east Monday.

The POP forecast leans on the slower more generous SREF model for
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. The
disturbance should be east of the area Monday evening.

The risk of severe storms is low. Winds aloft at h500-300mb are weak
at 20kts or less as is the moisture transport and theta-e advection
below 700mb. Still, the MRMS indicates small hail is ongoing across
SD and the Nebraska Panhandle from both disturbances.

There is also the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWAT in the
RAP model is around 1.50 inches beneath the SD disturbance as it
moves into and through cntl Nebraska tonight and Monday. The
disturbance will be moving slowly south at about 15 kts but the weak
moisture advections and low ambient PWAT, near 1.25 inches, would
seem to suggest low, but not zero, potential for a heavy rainfall
center of a few inches tonight. It will be interesting to see if the
system can tighten up and become better organized across ncntl
Nebraska tonight.

Attention turns to the elevated smoke circulating south from
the fires across Canada. The smoke forecast from the RAP model
shows this smoke throughout the cntl and nrn Plains for the next
48 hours. Thereafter, the GFS shows north winds aloft Tuesday
continuing to steer smoke through Nebraska. A shift in wind
direction from the northwest is expected Wednesday which might
push the smoke east of Nebraska. For simplicity, sky coverage
has been adjusted up to 30-40 percent tonight through Monday
night.

The 00z KLBF sounding Saturday evening showed a mixing height to
just 750mb. H850mb temperatures will be used as a proxy for max
temperatures Monday and the models suggest a very modest 1C degree
rise in temperatures at that level. The temperature forecast Monday
uses the short term model blend plus bias correction for highs in
the low to mid 80s. This forecast is close to the NBM 50th
percentile.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Heat will build into wrn/ncntl Nebraska Wednesday through Sunday
with high temperatures rising into the 90s across all of the
region by Friday and lasting through the weekend. The models are
in good agreement dropping a fairly deep upper level low
through the Canadian provinces. This will cause the upper level
ridge across the wrn U.S. to flatten and build east through the
central Plains. By next weekend temperatures at h700mb across
wrn Nebraska should rise to 12C-15C with sfc low pressure across
Manitoba and the Dakotas. This well supports highs in the 90s
across wrn/ncntl Nebraska.

Isolated to low-end chance POPs are in place Friday through Sunday.
This rain chance is associated with an approaching cold front across
the nrn Plains but it's worth noting both the morning runs of the
ECM and GFS show no storm development across wrn/ncntl Nebraska.
This makes the thunderstorm forecast next weekend speculative.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorm
development will persist across much of the area into early this
evening, with confidence in impacts to both KLBF and KVTN
remaining low. Have maintained thunderstorm timing from
previous forecast, though future amendments may be needed.

Patchy fog is again possible for north central Nebraska
terminals early tomorrow morning, ending quickly after sunrise.
Additionally, smoke will persist aloft through the valid
period, though confidence in any surface impacts remains low.
Winds remain light from the north today, before becoming
variable tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-222030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
323 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 /223 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across much
of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon and early
evening. No severe weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible Monday, initially early in the
morning and peaking during the afternoon. The threat for severe
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
437 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

NEZ006-007-009-010-212215-
Holt NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
437 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ROCK...NORTHWESTERN
HOLT...EASTERN KEYA PAHA AND WESTERN BOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM
CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Burke to 11 miles east of Wewela. Movement
was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Naper, Burton, Nets Peak, Mills, Brocksburg, and Mariaville.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 64 and 104, and between
mile markers 107 and 108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4291 9895 4290 9899 4286 9905 4277 9932
      4277 9936 4272 9953 4273 9956 4300 9963
      4299 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 303DEG 20KT 4315 9933 4299 9955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
447 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

NEZ005-006-008-212215-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Keya Paha NE-
447 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHERRY...NORTHERN
BROWN AND WESTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Springview to 7 miles
northwest of Norden. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springview, Norden, Meadville, North River Trail, Sparks, and Bobcat
State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 205 and 127, and between mile
markers 129 and 222.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 9977 4269 9969 4273 10032 4300 10028
      4300 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 352DEG 18KT 4290 9986 4295 10018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH