Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
  tonight. The hazards are damaging winds, large hail and
  locally heavy rainfall which may cause flooding in some areas.
  The risk of a tornado is low but not zero.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.
  The risk of severe storms is low.

- Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected Tuesday
  through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A plume of subtropical moisture will remain across wrn/ncntl
Nebraska this afternoon and this evening. PWAT values of 1.25 to
1.50 inches will be in place. Modest drying is expected after
midnight. Thereafter, PWAT falls to an inch or less Saturday and
Saturday night. This drying will be accompanied by cooler air aloft
with h700mb temperatures falling to 5 to 9 C.

Severe weather chances this afternoon and this evening hinge on an
increase in wind speeds aloft, most notably h500mb winds
increasing from 30kt to around 40kt. Warm air advection moving
north through KS is modest and being intercepted by ongoing
storms but warmer air aloft is lurking to the west across the
high plains of Colo and WY. The first round of 2 or perhaps 3
rounds of thunderstorms moved through wrn/ncntl Nebraska this
afternoon. A second round is attempting to organize across SD
and WY. Given that satellite shows the dynamics extending north
into wrn SD/nern WY, a second round of late afternoon/evening
storms seems likely. The very dry air across the high plains
make significant wind gusts the primary concern. High PWAT and
the potential for cell mergers, back-building and repeat storms
support the WPC excessive rainfall outlook highlighting swrn and
ncntl Nebraska for flood potential.

A third round of thunderstorms is possible late this evening and
overnight as temperatures aloft cool but the latest NAM12, HREF and
NAMnest are quiet about this. The RAP model supports scattered
storms late tonight. The model soundings show abundant CAPE, around
2500 J/KG but the winds aloft are backing with height which might
favor back-building and excessive rainfall vs severe weather.
Nonetheless, satellite and radar shows storms firing across ern MT
this afternoon and this disturbance will likely move south through
Nebraska overnight.

The peak heating period from 4 pm to 9 pm today would appear to be
the most favored time for severe weather but not all models agree on
this. The forecast leans toward the more aggressive NAMnest which
shows scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the
evening.

Isolated rain chances are in place Saturday, mainly for daytime
heating. The forecast is dry Saturday night. It is worth noting the
jet stream will shift west running north and south along the Laramie
and Front ranges Saturday. It is in this area the models show storms
forming. This activity would likely be steered south southeast and
remain west of wrn/ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Isolated to low-end chance POPs are in place Sunday and Monday.
Winds aloft at h500-300mb will be weak, generally less than
30kts and the risk of severe storms would likely remain low.

The forecast is dry Tuesday and beyond for a few reasons.
Upper level moisture in the models will be spartan and temperatures
aloft will be on the rise. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will remain in
northwest flow which could support storm development off the Black
Hills or the Big Horns but the models suggest moisture will be too
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of thunderstorms
across western and north central Nebraska into tonight.
Widespread thunderstorm development will continue across much of
the area this afternoon and evening, with brief MVFR CIGs and
visibilities, along with gusty and erratic winds, possible
inside storms. Timing and placement of thunderstorm activity
remains low confidence, and amendments will likely be needed at
both KLBF and KVTN as confidence grows.

Thunderstorms exit the area tonight, with an expansion of low
stratus across north central Nebraska. A period of IFR is
possible for north central Nebraska terminals tomorrow morning.
Winds remain erratic across the area with the passage of
thunderstorm outflow boundaries today, with a return of light
northerly winds overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 /251 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon and
evening across western and north central Nebraska. These
thunderstorms will bring a severe weather threat, with the primary
concerns being damaging wind gusts and large hail. Additionally,
there is a threat for locally heavy rainfall for areas along and east
of Highway 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional rain and thunderstorm chances will exist Saturday through
Monday. At this time, the threat for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
246 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

NEZ071-192030-
Frontier NE-
246 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRONTIER COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stockville, or near Curtis, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area,
Orafino, Freedom, and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 10056 4070 10029 4044 9998 4044 10009
      4035 10010 4035 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 346DEG 18KT 4057 10042

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
557 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Hail             18 NE Whitman           42.25N 101.34W
07/19/2024  M1.75 Inch       Cherry             NE   Public

&&

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
601 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

NEZ059-070-071-192345-
Frontier NE-Hayes NE-Lincoln NE-
601 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER...SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wellfleet, or 14 miles northwest of Curtis, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Wellfleet, Moorefield, Maywood, and Hansen Memorial Reserve
State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 35 and 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 10087 4089 10053 4063 10015 4041 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 355DEG 18KT 4075 10075

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH