Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms are
  possible this evening across portions of the Panhandle and the
  Sandhills with hail, briefly strong winds, and lightning being the
  main threats.

* Dangerous heat continues through Monday with heat advisories in
  effect as heat indices rise above 100 degrees.

* Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday lasting through the end of
  the week as highs fall back into the 80s.

* Active weather returns on Tuesday with near-daily afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms, although, the risk of severe storms remains
  uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of
the Panhandle and into the Sandhills as a shortwave trough tracks
across western Nebraska. Significant instability exists across much
of the Sandhills and eastern Panhandle, however, latest model
soundings suggest enough of a capping inversion to help limit
convection. On the other hand, if a parcel can force their way
through the inversion, due to outflow from western storms,
convection will be possible further to the east. With ample
instability, these storms will have the potential to quickly become
severe before more stable air moves in after sunset. Hail and
briefly gusty winds along with frequent lightning will all be
possible in these isolated thunderstorms. An another round of more
widespread stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms is possible
overnight, however, these are not expected to be severe.

The majority of the weather through Monday will remain calm and dry.
Some additional thunderstorm chances return on Saturday evening as
another short wave pushes through South Dakota. A stray storm may
move across northern Nebraska before quickly exiting or diminishing.

The main concern through Monday will be the extremely hot
temperatures. Latest models suggest 850 mb temperatures well into
the 28 to 32 degree C range which will result in surface high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This combined with
increasing surface dewpoints will allow for heat indices to rise to
dangerous levels into the 100 to 105 range. Those with outside
activities will need to take extra precautions this weekend and into
Monday as these temperatures may result in heat related illnesses.
Heat advisories remain in effect for much of north central and
western Nebraska through Monday before temperatures begin to
moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Active weather returns on Monday night as a frontal system moves
across Nebraska. Severe storms may be possible as the front provides
enough lift and instability increases through the afternoon. Storms
will develop across the Panhandle and move eastward through the
evening with the best chance for severe storms after 7pm CT.
Additional details on severe probability and development will become
clearer in the next few days.

Additional rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday
as several disturbances affects the area. Near daily thunderstorm
chances are possible, however, the severe risk remains uncertain a
this time.

In addition to increased rain chances through next week, this front
will also bring much cooler temperatures to north central Nebraska.
Highs return to near normal in the 80s for Tuesday through Thursday
with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through western and north
central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Of concern will
be the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
western and north central Nebraska tonight. Latest CAM guidance
keeps storms developing more across northwest Nebraska and western
Cherry county. At this time, current thinking is that storms should
avoid both terminals, however, this may need amendments if a storm
quickly develops in vicinity of a terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-
069>071.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Richie

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

NEZ094-130000-
Western Cherry NE-
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southeast of Gordon, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 61 crossing the Snake River.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 198 and 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 10203 4270 10195 4261 10161 4242 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 304DEG 18KT 4262 10192

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

NEZ004-130045-
Sheridan NE-
612 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM MDT...

At 611 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gordon, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 104 and 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 10235 4294 10223 4290 10209 4279 10209
      4271 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 304DEG 15KT 4288 10223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

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