Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are possible across wrn and ncntl
  Nebraska this afternoon. The hazards are large or very large
  hail and wind damage. Confidence for storm development is
  medium.

- The risk of severe weather Sunday through Friday is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An upper level low circulating across the nrn Plains this
morning will move east into the Dakotas this afternoon. A surge
of strong 30-50kt h500-300mb winds on the south side of the low
will push into Nebraska and trigger a round of strong to severe
storms by early to mid afternoon. The focus is a weak frontal
boundary positioned across the cntl Sandhills and ncntl
Nebraska. The best guess on timing of storm development
according to the HREF and CAMs is 18z with storm activity moving
east and southeast out of the area by 00z. Additional strong to
severe storms are possible farther south during the afternoon,
along and east of highway 83 where a cold front will be moving
through.

Local studies suggest the potential for significant hail as
suggested by the SPC outlook. Cold air aloft, -13C at h500mb, strong
deep layer shear near 50kts and steep lapse rates 7+ C/km at h850-
500mb support the potential for very large hail. The HRRR also shows
60+ mph gusts developing as the storm activity grows upscale across
cntl Nebraska. The tornado threat remains low and the reason for
this is weak winds below 700mb, generally less than 20kts. There
will be a brief window of stronger low level winds at the onset of
storm development. Otherwise, hodographs are fairly linear
supporting storm splitting and upscale growth as the system moves
eastward.

The next rain chance develops Saturday night and Sunday with the
approach of a second UA disturbance moving through srn British
Columbia this morning. This rain chance is mainly diurnally driven
favoring Sunday afternoon for the best chance. The atmosphere will
be cool and moist, 2-5C at h700mb with h850-300mb RH 60-80 percent.
This rain will also be post frontal and the risk of severe weather
is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An upper level trof of cold air will be passing through Nebraska
Monday. Cool moist air will remain across wrn/ncntl Nebraska as
this happens and the NAM soundings would seem to support
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms but there is no upper
level support shown in the model. The forecast is dry. The
models show a second trof dropping through Nebraska Wednesday
and the ECM suggests an isolated rain chance. NBM POPs are very
spartan for this event and later forecasts may increase rain
chances to slight or low-end chance.

Once this trof moves east, heights will gradually rise in response
to an upper level ridge across the wrn U.S. building east. Dry
and warmer weather is likely across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Thursday
through Saturday. The focus for rain appears to be farther
north across the upper Midwest during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated late this
morning across the Sandhills, moving southeast this afternoon.
Brief MVFR visibilities are possible in any thunderstorms today,
along with gusty and erratic winds. Precise timing and placement
of storms remains somewhat low confidence, and further
adjustments at KLBF and KVTN will likely be needed as details
become more clear. Low stratus and patchy fog may develop
overnight tonight for central Nebraska terminals, though
confidence in this remains low.

Winds become light from the south late this morning, before
becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1007 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

NEZ036-059-061545-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-
1007 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM CDT...

At 1007 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Sutherland, or 19 miles southwest of Tryon, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Lincoln and southeastern McPherson Counties.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 20.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 88 and 91.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 10123 4135 10125 4146 10074 4119 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1507Z 261DEG 26KT 4130 10112

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH