Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms this evening near a warm front across northern
Nebraska with a threat of large hail and strong winds

- Near daily storm chances through the weekend, including potential
for a strong/severe storm tomorrow (west) and Thursday (everywhere)

- Varying temperatures the next several days, including warm
Wednesday, milder (north central) Thursday, and back to very hot by
Monday

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Nebraska is squeezed between a bubble of high pressure over the Rio
Grande and an approaching upper trough in the Canadian Prairie
provinces, resulting in quasi-zonal flow aloft. Near the surface, a
low sits directly over the Sandhills with a warm front extending
east along the Hwy 20 corridor, a dryline stretching south near the
Hwy 83 corridor, and a cool front back toward the Colorado Rockies.
South of the front, highs in the mid/upper 90s accompanied nearly
cloudless skies. As of 20z, a cumulus field developed across north
central Neb from near VTN to ONL as backed northeasterly surface
winds intersect the front. Abundant moisture is available as shown
by dew points around 70F and PWAT of over 1" (at LBF) or 1.7" (at
OAX). Latest mesoanalysis from SPC/RAP and 19z RAOB from OAX
indicate ample instability along the front in the form of 4000 j/kg
MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This evening into tonight... The big question surrounds convective
initiation and evolution along the warm front in northern Nebraska.
CAMs guidance has differing scenarios, ranging from a couple rounds
of isolated storms that brush the CWA to widespread convection
across the northeast half. The environment is definitely capable of
organized storms and supercells, consisting of a severe hail and
wind threat. The 19z OAX RAOB shows a rather fat CAPE profile with
very steep mid level lapse rates (8.5+ c/km), but also abundant
DCAPE (1300+ j/kg). Also cannot rule out a tornado along/north of
the front where LCL's dip and low level flow is sufficiently backed.
Despite these parameters, the cap appears to be holding in place and
will play a large role in the timing and overall coverage of thunder
in the northern Sandhills. For now, blanketed the Hwy 20 corridor
with chc PoP (~30%) through the evening. The most likely timeframe
of thunder activity will be 00-06z, centered around southeastward
progressing convection off the Black Hills and other initiation along
the front in Nebraska, although the latter may be concentrated
toward the northeast quadrant of the state. The tricky part of the
whole setup is the conditionality. Coverage may be very limited, but
whatever storm affects the region could very easily become severe.
Overnight, low level winds transition to north and eventually
northeast, helping to retain moisture. Lows should be fairly mild in
the lower/mid 60s.

Tomorrow and tomorrow night... The upper ridge expands northward
along the spine of the Rockies, ultimately broadening over the High
Plains. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the north with
southeasterly return flow beginning later in the afternoon. That
setup will influence the next round of convection. The most likely
scenario suggests deep upslope flow help kick off storms in CO/WY,
and the steering flow pushes the activity into the panhandle and
ultimately the Sandhills after dark. The initial wave may fizzle as
it reaches the Hwy 61 corridor in the evening, but a stout low level
jet and a mid-level wave rounding the large scale ridge should
provide the oomph to get new development across the Sandhills. As
for temps, predominant northerly low level flow will limit highs to
the lower/mid 80s across north central Neb, while fair skies and
quicker return to southerly flow should push temps to around 90F
again in the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Late week into the weekend, upper flow turns zonal once again over
Nebraska as the ridge flattens and a progressive trough swings
through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A brief buildup of a
ridge brings the heat to start next week. The combination of the
synoptic changes aloft and various surface boundaries and frontal
passages, temperatures will vary quite a bit both spatially and
temporally during this period. For instance on Thursday, more
consistent precip and clouds may hold north central Neb to the mid
70s while an H85 thermal ridge will push the panhandle into lower
90s. Friday, the heat dome is concentrated toward southwest Neb,
then some locations in the Sandhills may struggle to break 70F on
Saturday. Perhaps the greatest confidence in temps is regarding the
warmup next Monday where most spots should top 90F and the far
southwest has another chance to break 100F. On a related note to all
the thermal differences, precip chances will stick around through
the period, but vary wildly in coverage and overall potential.
Currently, the greatest potential exists Thursday evening, Friday
evening (south), and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Isolated thunderstorms across northern Sandhills into north
central Nebraska this evening may bring erratic winds and large
hail to any location impacted, including KVTN terminal.
Thunderstorm activity farther south into the southern Sandhills
and central Nebraska is a little less certain. Winds will
generally be out of the north to north east around 5 to 10 kts
throughout the forecast period. Winds will start to switch to
the southeast in the afternoon across northern Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-262100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 /250 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Rest of this afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north central
Nebraska late this afternoon into the evening. The main hazards will
be large hail and damaging winds, although, an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southwest Nebraska
into the Panhandle on Wednesday. The hazards are damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall which may cause flooding in some areas.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Sunday but the risk of
severe weather is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
855 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Hail             13 ENE Rose             42.25N 99.30W
06/25/2024  M1.75 Inch       Rock               NE   Public

            A few Golf Ball sized hail, lots of Half
            Dollar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
908 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

NEZ005-024-025-094-260300-
Hooker NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
908 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...
NORTHEASTERN HOOKER AND NORTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT/900 PM MDT/...

At 907 PM CDT/807 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 14 miles west of Brownlee, or 23 miles north of Mullen,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mullen, Seneca, Brownlee, Highway 97 crossing the North Loup River,
Marsh Flat, Giant Hill, Highway 97 crossing Big Creek, Kelso, Highway
83 crossing Goose Creek, and Highway 83 crossing the North Loup
River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 185 and 197.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 66 and 110.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 163 and 179.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for north central and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4234 10122 4260 10093 4230 10030 4192 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 328DEG 27KT 4237 10090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Roberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
914 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     Tornado          1 N Whitman             42.06N 101.54W
06/25/2024                   Grant              NE   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager relayed from Sherriff a
            Tornado on the ground half a mile north of
            Whitman.

&&

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