Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
352 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex low pressure system is bringing widespread weather
  concerns this weekend, ranging from high winds, thunderstorms,
  and potentially snow. Confidence in snow amounts remains low.

- High winds associated with the low pressure system remain
  through Sunday evening. Gusts over 60 mph are possible.

- After the weekend system, a return to a calmer pattern, with
  temperatures rising. Elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions return mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

A low pressure system over southwest Nebraska is bringing widespread
weather impacts this afternoon. As of this afternoon, a line of
severe thunderstorms is traversing southwest Nebraska and the
Sandhills. Across the western Panhandle, snow showers are occurring
behind the low. The low pressure system is also forcing strong,
synoptic winds, with gusts approaching 60 mph in areas. This system
remains highly dynamic, where small changes in conditions may lead
to large differences in results.

The high winds remain the highest confidence weather threat with this
system. Strong winds aloft have been able to mix down to the surface
quite effectively, bringing widespread gusts across western and
north central Nebraska. As the low slowly tracks east-northeast
tonight, winds will shift from southeasterly to northwesterly. On
the northwest side of the low, a strong jet stream is expected to
persist and intensify tonight. With the synoptic set up in play,
winds are easily expected to reach the surface, bringing more
widespread wind gusts overnight through tomorrow evening. The area
of greatest concern is across southwest Nebraska, where wind gusts
exceeding 60 mph will be possible as the jet descends.

Moving on to the lower confidence weather threat. On the backside of
the low, precipitation is expected to switchover to snow tonight.
Latest CAM guidance shows a very tight gradient across the
Panhandle, with heavy snow amounts (some guidance exceeding 1 foot)
across the western Panhandle. However, across the North Platte CWA
in the eastern Panhandle, the amounts are much lower. In fact, some
guidance places less than 1 inch across the eastern Panhandle. The
better frontogenetical forcing appears to be over NE Colorado and SW
Wyoming, where there is higher confidence in higher snowfall totals.
Latest CAMs still seem a bit divided on where this gradient sets up.
In fact, the latest NAM Nest now places the potential for 8 inches
over Sheridan and Garden counties, whereas the HRRR only puts
upwards of 3 inches in the same counties. Temperatures trended
slightly warmer, but still hang just above freezing. Leaned a bit
more on the lower end of guidance for the eastern Panhandle, as
thunderstorms may drain some of the limited moisture. However, the
potential exists that the tight gradient could slightly shift east
and bring locally heavier amounts.

With the threat of the snow and very strong surface winds, the
potential exists for areas of blowing snow tonight, limited to areas
of snow. As of now, this appears limited to the Panhandle. Although
the snow is expected to be more of the wet, heavy variety, winds of
well over 50 mph will still blow snow around. The highest concern
for blowing snow will be during periods of falling snow.

Sunday, the main concern remains the heavy surface winds, though
lingering rain may remain in vicinity of the surface low. As the low
moves off to the east, winds are expected to abruptly diminish
Sunday night. Lingering showers may also remain in the wrap around
region of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

As both the upper level and surface lows move off to the east, a
period of calmer weather returns through late week. Lingering
chances of precipitation remain on Monday across northern Nebraska,
though any precipitation is expected to be all rain and mostly
light. Although the upper level pattern remains fairly active, any
associated surface systems are expected to miss western and north
central Nebraska. Temperatures remain relatively mild through late
week.

Late in the week, upper level ridging returns across the region,
brining a return of warmer temperatures. Late week temperatures are
currently expected to push towards the 70s. With little
precipitation expected through the week and above average
temperatures, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns may
also return mid to late week, as the region dries back out after the
weekend rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

Wind and thunderstorms will be a concern this afternoon into
this evening. Strong, gusty south to southeast winds will
continue through the early evening. Winds shift to the west to
northwest across southwest Nebraska this evening as a surface
low slowly tracks northeast across western and north central
Nebraska. Later tonight, showers and MVFR and local IFR ceilings
are expected. These conditions will persist into Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ007-010-
028-029.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ022-
035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

NEZ057-058-061930-
Perkins NE-Keith NE-
1255 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERKINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KEITH COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

At 1254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elsie, or 19 miles east of Grant, moving northwest at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Elsie, Keystone, Roscoe, Kingsley Dam, Grainton, and
Broganville.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 82 and 96.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 123 and 144.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 10126 4082 10125 4078 10137 4115 10185
      4127 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 148DEG 41KT 4089 10136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
204 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 SSE Bartlett          41.83N 98.52W
04/06/2024  M62 MPH          Wheeler            NE   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE North Platte      41.15N 100.72W
04/06/2024  M62 MPH          Lincoln            NE   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SW Callaway           41.21N 100.03W
04/06/2024  M59 MPH          Custer             NE   CO-OP Observer

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SW Callaway           41.21N 100.03W
04/06/2024  M64 MPH          Custer             NE   CO-OP Observer

&&

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