Red Flag Warning 25, NWS North Platte, NE

696 
WWUS83 KLBF 202356
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
556 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024


NEZ206-208-209-219-210100-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-241121T0000Z/
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-Loup Rivers Basin-Loess Plains-
556 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR...

The combination of strong winds decreasing along with cooler
temperatures this evening will allow the Red Flag Warning to
expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1035 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph expected Wednesday
  afternoon before decreasing after sunset.

* Dry conditions expected through Sunday with a return to milder
  temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s by Saturday.

* Next potential for precipitation arrives on Monday along the
  Nebraska/South Dakota border, although, development and precip
  type for this system is still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

In the wake of the departing upper level low, upper level ridging
will build across the Rockies tonight. However, the low will be slow
to depart the region and remain fairly stationary over the northern
Plains through Wednesday. As a result the pressure gradient will
tighten across Nebraska bringing very strong winds to north central
Nebraska on Wednesday. Northwest winds up to 30 to 40 mph with gusts
up to 60 mph will be possible by late morning lasting through the
afternoon. Therefore a High Wind Warning is in effect through 00Z,
which after this time winds are expected to diminish.

The stalled upper level low will allow for cold air advection to
push into the region as well bringing some near normal to slightly
below normal temperatures to the region. Current 850 mb temperatures
will be in the -2 to -8 C range resulting in surface temperatures to
only rise into the low to mid 40s tomorrow (nearly 5 to 10 degrees
below normal), however, lows will drop into the upper teens to mid
20s which is very close to our low 20 normals for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the weekend keeping
much of the region in dry conditions. A return to warm air advection
will allow for milder temperatures to return through the weekend,
especially west of US-83 where the gentle increase in terrain will
allow for slightly warmer temperatures. A surge of 850 mb
temperatures in the 6 to 10 C range by Sunday will result in a
gradual return to above normal highs. Thursday remains chilly (low
40s to low 50s) as the upper low slowly pushes off to the east with
the warmest temperatures across the west. By Saturday, highs return
into the 50s with some locations across the Panhandle reaching into
the low 60s. While Sunday remains dry, the upper level ridge will
begin to flatten in advance of the next system bringing below normal
temperatures in the 40s to the region (highest temperatures south of
I-80).

The next system to bring some precipitation to Nebraska will be on
Monday as a shortwave trough pushes through. At this time, the
greatest potential for precipitation will be along the
Nebraska/South Dakota border. However, there is high uncertainty
regarding this system on track and development. For now, have only
included a slight chance PoP (~20 percent) into the forecast across
portions of northern Nebraska. Due to the high uncertainty,
confidence in the precip type is also low. Will be watching this
developing system closely over the next few days. If you have early
holiday travel plans, keep a close eye on the latest forecast and be
prepared to make adjustments to your plans.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Wind will be the main issue the next 24 hours across western and
north central Nebraska. Strong gusty northwest winds can be
expected. Stronger winds just off the surface will lead to
low-level wind shear concerns overnight as well. Otherwise look
for VFR conditions to prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Wednesday for NEZ005>010-094.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202200-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
350 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 /250 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Gusty northwest winds continue overnight with peak speeds of 25 to
40 mph expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for northern Nebraska Wednesday
morning through the afternoon. Please refer to this product for more
information.

Increased wind gusts are expected Wednesday across much of western
and north central Nebraska. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph with sporadic gusts
up to 60 mph are possible, mainly for areas north of Highway 2. These
strong winds may pose issues for travelers, especially those with high
profile vehicles. The strong winds in tandem with dry air will also
lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns, mainly for
areas that saw little to no rain Monday.

A pattern change next week will bring about colder temperatures and
the threat for wintry conditions during the Thanksgiving travel
period. Details remain far from certain so continue to monitor later
forecasts for more up to date information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.