Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
256 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
The weather today has been very similar to yesterday. Warm and
humid southwesterlies persist across the Keys, with most
locations in the lower 90s. A narrow, thundery reverse cloud line
stretches from near Keys West to the northeast to near Cape Sable.
There appears to be just enough low level moisture convergence
between the southwesterlies across the Keys and the west-
southwesterlies over the Gulf to maintain this line. And yet,
aside from Key West, the island chain is rain-free this afternoon.

.FORECAST...
Forecast reasoning through the next week has not changed
appreciably with this cycle. The low-level ridge axis will lift
northward (now near the northern coast of Cuba) into Florida over
the next 24-48 hours. Steering flow and surface winds will shift
to the east to southeast. This configuration is more typical for
August and will feature undulations in the easterlies, holding
periodic increases/decreases in low-level moisture. There is a
decent signal for some SAL arrival Monday/Monday night followed by
a moisture surge on Tuesday. Through the next seven days, rain
chances will range between 20-40%.

Through the near term, a well defined moisture surge moving north
through the Yucatan and western Cuba sparked afternoon showers
across Cuba a little earlier than a typical summer day. Steering
flow is adequate (10-14 kts) to send these Cuban Boomers northward
this afternoon/early evening. There likely is some Cuban shadow
lurking in the Straits ahead of the propagating outflows. We will
increase overnight rain chances to 40% to account for this
scenario.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A ridge axis
associated with expansive high pressure over the western North
Atlantic will remain in the vicinity of South Florida tonight and
Saturday, resulting in light to gentle, generally southeast to
south breezes. As the ridge axis shifts northward towards Central
Florida, breezes will freshen modestly and shift to the east to
southeast for Sunday through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
VFR conditions will dominate at EYW and MTH through the 09/18Z TAF
period. Near surface winds will back south southwesterly to south
southeasterly after sunset with a slight decrease to near 5 knots.
Conditions at EYW could deteriorate to MVFR criteria as showers and
thunderstorms form northeast of the terminal. Thunderstorms surging
north from Cuba are also a potential source of MVFR CIGs this
evening, but higher uncertainty kept VCSH out of the TAFs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 1950, from the Key West
Citizen, "thousands of fish were found in the streets of Key West
after a heavy rain. Most of the fish were found along Caroline
street between William and Grinnell. One theory was that a large
waterspout had carried the fish ashore. This theory was supported by
the fact that most of the fish were mullet, which swim on the
surface and could be picked up by a waterspout. Caroline street
regulars insisted it had rained fish, and one man said he saw a full-
grown sponge fall from the sky."

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  92  83  91 /  40  20  20  30
Marathon  83  92  82  92 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from until 7 PM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
403 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-100815-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
403 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight. The
primary hazards will be heavy downpours, and locally strong wind
gusts, and cloud to surface lightning strikes.

Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for waterspout formation
from late this morning through early this evening across the
nearshore waters adjacent to the Florida Keys island chain.
Waterspouts tend to form beneath lines of building cumulus clouds,
just at the hint of rain. Waterspouts can easily flip boats, and
should be avoided always.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Florida Keys island chain.
Heat indices will likely approach 110F at times by early
afternoon, continuing through the early evening. This will cause
increased risk of heat illness for people outdoors or in non air
conditioned spaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the period. The
primary hazards will be heavy downpours, and locally strong wind
gusts, and cloud to surface lightning strikes.

Heat indices will likely approach Heat Advisory levels during the
afternoon and evening hours throughout much of this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

BT

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