Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1048 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
Borderline severe thunderstorms marched through the Florida Keys
this morning, with multiple reports of pea-sized hail combined
with wind gusts 40 to 55 mph. The last time the Florida Keys
reported hail was in Key Largo on April 4, 2022, while the last
time the Lower Keys reported hail was June 6, 2018. We normally do
not have a cool enough profile and the neccesary lapse rates to
support hail growth. This morning was different. The 12Z KKEY RAOB
sampled 562 dm at 500 mb, a 60 m fall in the past 12-hours, and
also the second lowest height recorded in the history of Key West
RAOB observations (source SPC). The 500 mb temperature of -13 degC
is below the 10th percentile for the date, aiding the short and
fat ML- CAPE profile. The derived EL was ~25 kft, which is
remarkably low for the Keys, and most of the echo tops this
morning were below 30 kft.

The kinematic fields are cyclonic at all levels, and forecast
soundings suggest a cooler BL profile throughout the day. Low-
level moisture may decrease somewhat over the next several hours
as strong westerly breezes invade the Keys, but forecast soundings
suggest weak ML instability will remain. Rain/thunder chances
remain good through this evening, followed by a shift in breezes
to the northwest to north and drying. The inherited forecast
remains on track and needs no adjustments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
Light to gentle breezes will freshen considerably over the next
few hours as a low dives southeastward towards Central Florida
from the Panhandle. This low will drive strong to near gale
westerly breezes across the region through Tuesday night. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected and Gale Warnings may be
required during this time period. Breezes will slacken gradually
Wednesday and Wednesday night, and slowly veer to the east through
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
After quite an active morning, VFR conditions have returned to
both terminals. Have kept VCSH in both TAFs due to the possible
development of more showers through the afternoon, but there are
currently no TEMPOs in place, as timing of any more convection is
a somewhat uncertain at this time. Hi-res guidance is hinting at
another round in the early afternoon, so short-term amendments
will likely be necessary. Surface winds are lighter right now out
of the east, but a sharp increase from the west to northwest is
expected. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are possible this afternoon
and overnight outside of convection.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1996, a low temperature of 45F at the Key West
international airport tied the record for the date. This was part of
a record-shattering cold outbreak that affected much of the eastern
two thirds of the U.S. that week, breaking all-time cold records
throughout the Midwest a few days earlier. Temperature records for
Key West date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  61  70  60 /  80  40   0   0
Marathon  75  61  70  58 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052-053-072-073.

     Gale Warning for GMZ054-055-074- 075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....NB

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
522 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-061030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
522 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today with some possibly
strong to severe. The primary hazards with stronger thunderstorms
will be damaging winds, cloud to surface lightning strikes, and
possibly small hail.

Westerly winds expected to freshen this morning have resulted in a
Gale Warning for the western Straits of Florida and a Small Craft
Advisory for the rest of the Keys coastal waters. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Winds are expected to sharply freshen Monday, initially out of
the west, then becoming northwest. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be required for Keys waters into the middle of the week.

The expected strong west to northwesterly winds early this week
will likely pile water up on our gulf coasts. As a result, a mix
of Coastal Flood statements and advisories may be required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JAM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
932 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NE Windley Key        25.01N 80.52W
02/05/2024  E45 MPH          Monroe             FL   Mesonet

            The Weatherflow mesonet at Tavernier
            Substation measured a 39 knot wind gust.

&&

CLR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
943 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     Hail             4 SW Rock Harbor        25.03N 80.50W
02/05/2024  E0.25 inch       Monroe             FL   Public

            A member of the public reported pea-sized
            hail at MM 94.

&&

CLR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
952 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SE Ocean Reef         25.23N 80.19W
02/05/2024  E54 MPH          GMZ052             FL   Mesonet

            The Weatherflow mesonet sensor at Carysfort
            Reef measured a 47 knot wind gust.

&&

CLR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
954 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     Hail             2 SSE Big Pine Key      24.64N 81.35W
02/05/2024  E0.25 inch       GMZ044             FL   Public

            A member of the public reported pea-sized
            hail. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CLR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
957 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 AM     Hail             3 WSW Sugarloaf Key     24.63N 81.59W
02/05/2024  E0.25 inch       Monroe             FL   Public

            A member of the public reported pea-sized
            hail.

&&

CLR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
1001 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     Coastal Flood    2 WSW Marathon          24.71N 81.11W
02/05/2024                   Monroe             FL   Other Federal

            The Vaca Key NOS tide gauge (VCAF1) measured
            a 1 foot meteotsunami, confirmed by an
            official observer from the Bayside of the
            Upper Keys. She described water rising
            rapidly up over the docks, nearing doorways.

&&

CLR