Flash Flood Warning 126, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 PM AST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Wet and unstable weather conditions will continue to prevail
across the region as moisture associated with a tropical wave
continues filter into the area. Additional rainfall activity is
expected overnight, enhancing the potential to observe flooding
and quick river rises over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Marine conditions will deteriorate on Monday through
mid-week with the arrival of a northerly swell. This will bring
hazardous seas and life- threatening rip currents along exposed
coastlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...

Moist and unstable conditions prevailed through most of the day
across the islands. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rains with
strong thunderstorms were observed from eastern to western Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Doppler radar and satellite
observations estimated up to 4 inches of rain over the eastern
interior and southwest Puerto Rico. The highest accumulations were
observed over Juncos, Cabo Rojo and Lajas. Some of the impacts
across the areas included: flash flooding, urban and small stream
flooding, quick river rises, and several mudslides due to very
saturated soils. Today, maximum temperatures remained in the mid
to upper 80s along the coastal and urban areas, and in the upper
70s to low 80s in the mountains.

Tonight, a slight improvement in weather conditions is expected.
However, by midnight another round of moderate to heavy showers will
reach the eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. This activity is anticipated to continue overnight into the
early morning hours on Monday, enhancing the potential to observe
flooding across these sectors. The latest precipitable water content
analysis has values of 2.2 to 2.3 inches, indicating the presence of
above-than-normal moisture across the region. Monday and Tuesday
will continue relatively wet due to abundant moisture and the
combination with daytime heating and local effects. Winds will
remain from the southeast from the interaction of a strong surface
high pressure and the arrival of a frontal boundary near the region.
Overall, seasonal temperatures will prevail this week. Temperatures
will remain in the range in the mid to upper 80s along the coastal
and urban areas, and from the low to mid 80s in the mountains.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 AM AST Sun Nov 10 2024/

Recent model guidance continued to suggest overall moist and
variable weather conditions persisting through most of the period.
Although mid to upper- level ridging is expected to hold through
early Wednesday, the continued low level moisture convergent pattern
will continue at least through the end of the work week due to the
approach of another frontal boundary/shearline and associated moisture
field. This is forecast to sink southwards across the area, as strong
surface high pressure builds across the west and southwest Atlantic.
This in turn will induce a lighter east- southeast winds across the
islands by Friday then becoming more east to northeast during the
rest of the period.

Although a slightly drier pattern is expected by early Wednesday, these
conditions will be short-lived, as additional moisture convergence
and is expected with the aforementioned frontal boundary and the
approach of a mid to upper level polar trough which is forecast to slide
eastward just north of the region. Therefore overall good convection
is forecast for each day especially across the central interior and
eastern sections of Puerto Rico and also in and around the U.S. Virgin
Island islands steered by the east to southeast wind flow on Wednesday,
then a more east to northeast wind flow by the end of the period. By
late Friday into Saturday, model guidance continue to suggest a gradual
drying tend with low level moisture erosion and weakening of the mid
to upper level troughiness. That said a drier pattern is so far
expected by the weekend with more seasonal conditions and a mix of
sunshine and clouds followed by limited afternoon convection for
the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Unsettled weather conditions due to a tropical wave will continue to
cause impacts to operations through the forecast period. SHRA and
TSRA are expected at least through 22Z for the PR terminals, with
periods of low ceilings and reduced VIS anticipated. Additional
showers are also expected after 22Z for the USVI terminals through
the morning hours of the 11th. Winds are from the ESE at 11-16 kts,
with stronger gusts, especially along thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

A tropical wave will continue to cross the regional waters and bring
showers and thunderstorms across the area promoting moderate to
fresh easterly winds throughout the day. A broad area of low pressure
extending across the region and a frontal boundary nearly stationary
to the north of the area will maintain an unsettled weather pattern
with moderate to locally fresh easterly winds expected to continue
through at least the first half of the week. A northerly swell will
arrive on Monday, deteriorating marine conditions along the Atlantic
waters and passages early in the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate rip current risk across all the exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through this
evening. On Monday, the risk of rip current will become high for
the northern coast of Puerto Rico and Culebra. Although
conditions might be suitable for visiting the beaches, the
increase in thunderstorm activity might result in hazardous
coastal conditions across the islands through late this evening.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch until 8 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-012.

VI...Flood Watch until 8 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM AST Tuesday for
     AMZ711.

&&

SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....GRS
AVIATION...ERG
PUBLIC DESK...MMC

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR
502 AM AST domingo 10 de noviembre de 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-110915-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe-
502 AM AST domingo 10 de noviembre de 2024

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
sectores de Puerto Rico.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche
.Rayos...Las tormentas eléctricas aisladas a dispersas son posibles.
 Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y moverse a los
refugios.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones en áreas urbanas, carreteras,
riachuelos y lavados.  Inundaciones repentinas amenazantes a la
vida, incluyendo deslizamientos de tierra, ingresando a estructuras
y cortando vecindarios,  especialmente en áreas propensas a
inundaciones y áreas con suelos saturados.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Las embarcaciones pequeñas deben ejercer
precaución a través de las aguas mar afuera del Atlántico.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en la zona de olas particularmente a través del norte
de Puerto Rico nad Culebra.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...lunes a sábado
Los aguaceros, las tormentas eléctricas y los vientos crecientes
generados por una onda tropical pasajera continuarán representando
un riesgo de lluvia excesiva, rayos y brisa hasta condiciones de
viento el lunes.  Para  principios de la próxima semana, las
marejadas del norte generarán oleaje peligroso y corrientes marinas
amenazantes a la vida en las costas expuestas.  También se espera
que las temperaturas cálidas regresen temprano la próxima semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...
Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar.  Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-110915-
San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
502 AM AST domingo 10 de noviembre de 2024

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche
.Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas numerosas posibles a través de las
islas con los aguaceros más fuertes.  Planee detener toda la
actividad al aire libre y moverse a los refugios.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas de mal
drenaje a través de las islas.  Las inundaciones urbanas y de
riachuelos son posibles.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Las embarcaciones pequeñas deben ejercer
precaución a través de las Aguas marinas del Atlántico.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en la zona de olas particularmente a través de todas
las playas locales expuestas.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...lunes a sábado
Los aguaceros, las tormentas eléctricas y los vientos crecientes
generados por una onda tropical pasajera continuarán representando
un riesgo de lluvia excesiva, rayos y brisa hasta condiciones de
viento el lunes.  Para  principios de la próxima semana, las
marejadas del norte generarán oleaje peligroso y corrientes marinas
amenazantes a la vida en las costas expuestas.  También se espera
que las temperaturas cálidas regresen temprano la próxima semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...
Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar.  Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.