Flash Flood Warning 110, NWS JSJ

721 
WGCA72 TJSJ 010411
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1211 AM AST Fri Nov 1 2024

PRC095-109-151-010421-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0110.000000T0000Z-241101T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maunabo PR-Patillas PR-Yabucoa PR-
1211 AM AST Fri Nov 1 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR MAUNABO, AND PATILLAS...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 AM AST Saturday for 
portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands.

&&

LAT...LON 1808 6601 1809 6598 1809 6594 1812 6593
      1813 6591 1811 6587 1812 6585 1810 6585
      1807 6580 1805 6584 1801 6583 1798 6592
      1797 6598 1798 6602 1801 6604 1804 6605
      1803 6608 1806 6609 1811 6605 1810 6602

$$

CAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
522 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and unsettled pattern will persist at least until Saturday.
Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all the islands
until 8 AM on Saturday. Dangerous marine conditions will perist
for the next several days with seas up to 10 feet and large
breaking waves of 10 feet across the northern sections of PR,
where a High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...tonight trough Saturday...

An unstable weather pattern prevailed for the morning and early
afternoon hours across all the eastern sections of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Shower activity developed across the
northeastern sections of Puerto Rico around San Juan and Toa Baja,
followed by thunderstorms across the northeastern and
southeastern. According to the Doppler Radar, rainfall accumulates
around 2 to 6 inches, with the heaviest accumulation near Rio
Grande, Luquillo & Fajardo. Shower activity increased again in the
afternoon across southeast and northeast sections. Due to this
activity, several rivers across the eastern section of Puerto
Rico reacted and went into the action stage, including Rio Blanco,
Rio Fajardo, Rio Espiritu Santo, Rio Mameyes & Rio Puerto Nuevo.

Weather conditions prevailed unstabled and wet due to the upper-
level trough and the moisture associated with a stationary frontal
boundary just north of the region. Another round of showers is
expected across sectors in the eastern part of the island,
including the municipal islands of Vieques and Culebra, as the
speed divergence area of the upper-level trough shifts further
east into the region. This scenario translates to light to heavy
showers with thunderstorm activity tonight into early tomorrow
morning. In the forecast, an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain are
expected across these areas, including sectors in the eastern part
of the island. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch is still in
effect for all the islands until Saturday at 8 AM. Residents are
urged to exercise caution across the local roads and avoid flooded
roadways. '

By Friday, instability will be in place as suggested by the
temperatures at 500 MB, remaining on the cold side with -6 C and
low values for 250 MB heights. Similar conditions will dominate
with the water content available; 850-700 MB RH shows moisture in
the 75th percentile. With this pattern, the islands will easily
experience another wet pattern with shower activity. The bulk of
the showers and thunderstorms will be on the eastern side of the
CWA, as suggested by the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI). By Saturday,
the upper-level feature will move out, and more stable conditions
will prevail across the islands. Still, enough moisture will
result in the typical afternoon convection due to the local
effects.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...
...from previous discussion isuued at 616 AM THU OCT 31 2024....

A surface high-pressure system located over the Western Atlantic
will continue to interact with a broad low- pressure system in the
Central Atlantic, generating southeasterly winds across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Early in the weekend, a trough
is expected to develop in the region. The combination of these
weather features may lead to the accumulation of tropical moisture
over the islands. We anticipate a wet and unstable period lasting
at least until November 5th, 2024, which coincides with Election
Day. The latest Precipitable Water model indicates values
exceeding 2.0 inches, which is above the 75th percentile and
considered higher than normal for this time of year. The National
Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure that
is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is expected to gradually develop over the weekend and early
next week as it drifts northward over the west- central
Caribbean. Currently, there is a 40 percent chance of development
for this low-pressure area within the next seven days. Since this
forecast is still far off, we encourage everyone to remain
informed with each update. Some potential hazards associated with
the anticipated wet and unstable conditions include ponding of
water on roads and in poorly drained areas, which could lead to
flooding or occasional flash flooding with the heaviest rainfall
activity, lightning, quick rises in small rivers, and landslides
in higher terrains. We urge people to drive carefully, stay aware
of the updates issued by our local forecast office, and remember
to carry an umbrella everywhere, even on Election Day. In terms of
temperatures, primarily cloudy skies and unstable weather
conditions are expected to keep high temperatures below 90 degrees
across most areas throughout the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Periods of MVRF or even IFR conds will remain possible at all TAF
sites through the forecast period in SHRA/TSRA due to favorable
atmospheric conditions that enhance shower and thunderstorm
development across the forecast area. Winds will persist from the
east at 5 to 15 kt, becoming variable aft 31/23z. Higher gusts in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic
will hold the remnants of a cold front in the local area resulting
in showers and thunderstorms. A pulse of northerly swell will
also result in building seas through at least Saturday night
resulting in high seas up to 10 feet. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to persist across the regional waters and passages
into the following week. These maritime conditions will become
hazardous, especially along north- facing beaches, due to the
increase in swell. Residents and visitors planning coastal
activities in these areas are advised to exercise caution.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Hazardous coastal conditions with large breaking waves are
expected to impact the northern coast of Puerto Rico, including
Culebra and the US Virgin Islands, over the coming days. High surf
will bring dangerous breaking waves along the north-facing
beaches, with wave heights reaching 7 feet or more. As a result, a
High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coastline of
Puerto Rico, and a High Rip Current Risk has been issued for all
northern- exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
for tomorrow.

Residents and visitors are advised to avoid these north-facing
beaches due to the elevated risk of strong rip currents and
large, breaking waves. These hazardous conditions are expected to
persist over the next several days, so it is essential to stay
informed.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-010-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for PRZ001-002-005-
     008.

VI...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716-
     741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ723.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Friday for AMZ726-733-742.

&&

SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....LIS

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR
619 AM AST jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-011030-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe-
619 AM AST jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
sectores de Puerto Rico.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas dispersas posibles a través de la
región. Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y moverse a
los refugios.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones repentinas amenazantes a la vida
ingresando en estructuras y cortando vecindarios, especialmente en
áreas propensas a inundaciones.

.Viento...Condiciones ventosas. Objetos al aire libre podrían
salir o dañarse.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 10 pies a través de
las aguas mar afuera del Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para
embarcaciones pequeñas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son probables en la zona de olas particularmente en las playas
orientadas al norte.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miércoles

El riesgo alto de corrientes marinas continuará hasta el fin de
semana. Aguaceros y las tormentas eléctricas aumentarán el riesgo de
inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra durante gran parte del
período. Se esperan oleajes picados y  peligrosos a través de las
aguas del Atlántico hasta principios de la próxima semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-011030-
San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
619 AM AST jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas dispersas posibles a través de la
región. Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y moverse a
los refugios.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones repentinas amenazantes a la vida
ingresando en estructuras y cortando vecindarios, especialmente en
áreas propensas a inundaciones.

.Viento...Condiciones ventosas. Objetos al aire libre podrían
salir o dañarse.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 10 pies a través de
las aguas mar afuera del Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para
embarcaciones pequeñas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son probables en la zona de olas particularmente a través de las
playas orientadas al norte.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miércoles

El riesgo alto de corrientes marinas continuará hasta el final del
fin de semana. Los aguaceros y las tormentas eléctricas aumentarán
el riesgo de inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra durante gran
parte del período. Se esperan oleajes picados y  peligrosos a través
de las aguas del Atlántico hasta principios de la próxima semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
349 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     Flash Flood      Ave. Laguna             18.43N 66.02W
10/31/2024                   Carolina           PR   911 Call Center

            The 911 Call Center reported at least one
            person trapped in a vehicle due to a
            flooding along Avenue Laguna behind a
            Supermax location.

&&

MNG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     Flood            Near Gas Station        18.00N 66.01W
10/31/2024                   Patillas           PR   Broadcast Media

            Media Broadcaster shared on social media a
            video of flooding along PR-3 near a gas
            station.

&&

MNG