Flash Flood Warning 109, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
627 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of mid-to-upper level troughs and above-normal moisture
from a nearly stationary front will create ideal conditions for
thunderstorm development over the next few days, with the most
intense and frequent activity expected through at least Saturday
morning.A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through at least 8 AM
on Saturday. Residents and visitors are urged to pay attention to
the local agency's guidance.

Marine- wise, small craft operators and beachgoers should monitor
the beach and water conditions due to wind-driven seas and a
northerly swell that will affect the local waters for the next
several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Active weather conditions prevailed overnight across northeast and
east Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where rainfall
accumulations ranged mainly between 1 and 3 inches with isolated
higher amounts of up to 4 inches (based on radar estimates).
Finally, low temperatures were in the mid-70s across the coastal
areas and in the mid-60s in mountains and valleys. Winds were
between 5 and 15 mph from the northeast but locally higher near rain
activity.

An upper-level trough and abundant tropical moisture will result in
an unstable wet pattern through Saturday. Given the expected
conditions, a Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands due to the high potential (70-90%) to observe
flooding. The highest rainfall accumulation will range between 6 and
8 inches across the northeast quadrant of PR and 4 to 6 inches
across the rest of the eastern third of PR and the U.S Virgin
Islands. Soils are saturated across the NE quadrant of PR, Vieques,
and the U.S. Virgin Islands; thus, the expected additional rains
will result in river and flash flooding and mudslides.

Residents and visitors are urged to stay alert and closely monitor
weather updates and official warnings during flooding events. It is
essential to avoid crossing flooded roads or areas, as even shallow
water can be extremely dangerous. Just a few inches of moving water
can sweep people off their feet, and one foot of water can carry
away most vehicles.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

A surface high-pressure system located over the Western Atlantic
will continue to interact with a broad low-pressure system in the
Central Atlantic, generating southeasterly winds across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Early in the weekend, a trough
is expected to develop in the region. The combination of these
weather features may lead to the accumulation of tropical moisture
over the islands. We anticipate a wet and unstable period lasting
at least until November 5th, 2024, which coincides with Election
Day. The latest Precipitable Water model indicates values
exceeding 2.0 inches, which is above the 75th percentile and
considered higher than normal for this time of year. The
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low
pressure that is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. This system is expected to gradually develop over the
weekend and early next week as it drifts northward over the west-
central Caribbean. Currently, there is a 40 percent chance of
development for this low-pressure area within the next seven days.
Since this forecast is still far off, we encourage everyone to
remain informed with each update. Some potential hazards
associated with the anticipated wet and unstable conditions
include ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas,
which could lead to flooding or occasional flash flooding with the
heaviest rainfall activity, lightning, quick rises in small
rivers, and landslides in higher terrains. We urge people to drive
carefully, stay aware of the updates issued by our local forecast
office, and remember to carry an umbrella everywhere, even on
Election Day. In terms of temperatures, primarily cloudy skies and
unstable weather conditions are expected to keep high
temperatures below 90 degrees across most areas throughout the
long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

An unstable weather pattern will bring SHRA/TSRA across the local
flying area. TEMPOs for MVFR or IFR conditions will be required,
especially for JSJ/IST/ISX. Winds will persist from the NE at 5 to
15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 31/13z. Winds
will become calm to light and variable aft 31/23z.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail today and become east
southeast Friday and Saturday. A broad surface high pressure building
over the western Atlantic will hold the remnants of a cold front in
the local area until a weak low pressure deepens over our local
western Atlantic waters. A pulse of northerly swell will also result
in building seas through at least Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will persist across the regional waters and passages
into the following week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Hazardous coastal conditions are expected over the northern coast
of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. Hazardous
breaking waves will impact the north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico. Therefore a High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic
coastline of Puerto Rico. A high rip current risk will be in
place due to hazardous breaking waves of 7 feet or more across
all the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and US Virgin
Islands. Residents and visitors should avoid the north exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico for the next several days.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday morning
     for PRZ010.

VI...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for VIZ001.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday morning
     for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AST Sunday for AMZ711-712-716.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Saturday for AMZ723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ726-742.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ733.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AST Sunday for AMZ741.

&&

SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....MRR

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR
619 AM AST jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-011030-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-
Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-
Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe-
619 AM AST jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
sectores de Puerto Rico.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas dispersas posibles a través de la
región. Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y moverse a
los refugios.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones repentinas amenazantes a la vida
ingresando en estructuras y cortando vecindarios, especialmente en
áreas propensas a inundaciones.

.Viento...Condiciones ventosas. Objetos al aire libre podrían
salir o dañarse.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 10 pies a través de
las aguas mar afuera del Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para
embarcaciones pequeñas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son probables en la zona de olas particularmente en las playas
orientadas al norte.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miércoles

El riesgo alto de corrientes marinas continuará hasta el fin de
semana. Aguaceros y las tormentas eléctricas aumentarán el riesgo de
inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra durante gran parte del
período. Se esperan oleajes picados y  peligrosos a través de las
aguas del Atlántico hasta principios de la próxima semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-011030-
San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
619 AM AST jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas.

.DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas dispersas posibles a través de la
región. Planee detener toda la actividad al aire libre y moverse a
los refugios.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones repentinas amenazantes a la vida
ingresando en estructuras y cortando vecindarios, especialmente en
áreas propensas a inundaciones.

.Viento...Condiciones ventosas. Objetos al aire libre podrían
salir o dañarse.

.Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 10 pies a través de
las aguas mar afuera del Atlántico. Condiciones peligrosas para
embarcaciones pequeñas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son probables en la zona de olas particularmente a través de las
playas orientadas al norte.

.DÍAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miércoles

El riesgo alto de corrientes marinas continuará hasta el final del
fin de semana. Los aguaceros y las tormentas eléctricas aumentarán
el riesgo de inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra durante gran
parte del período. Se esperan oleajes picados y  peligrosos a través
de las aguas del Atlántico hasta principios de la próxima semana.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES...

Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar
cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.

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