Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
207 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Torrential rainfall in showers and thunderstorms pose an
  elevated risk of flash flooding across eastern Kentucky today,
  especially south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms persists
  today with damaging wind gusts the main concern.

- Heat and humidity will be in place on Tuesday, with afternoon
  heat indices near 100 degrees in a few places.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2024

An area of showers and some thunderstorms has moved across the
area this morning, leading to gusty winds and heavy rain in some
areas, especially the south. Behind this, some stabilization is
occurring briefly, but only a couple hours of heating is leading
to recovery with MLCAPE rising to at least 2000 J/kg as in the
southwest. Meanwhile, effective shear is forecast to climb into
the 25 to 30KT range. PW is analyzed in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch
range. With the an upper level trough axis lingering off to the
west and multiple perturbations to rotate across the area,
additional activity is expected this afternoon and into the
evening. Gusty to damaging winds will be favored with the
instability and shear combination. Heavy rain will remain a threat
with activity during the afternoon and into the evening and areas
that experience multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
could have instances of flooding, mainly in the flood watch area.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2024

Some morning showers and storms appeared poised to enter the area
from the west. This could help to stabilize the area into the
afternoon or leave behind a boundary that could become a focal
point for additional more organized storm development. Have
updated the near term forecast mainly to account for the current
radar trends along with the latest CAMs notions. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure through the northern Ohio
Valley with an associated cold front to the northwest of the
state. In the wake of the MCS that went through during last
evening, some scattered convection has been able to drift east
through the Cumberland Valley but remaining unorganized and not
substantial. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy through the area
with some clear patches allowing for fog development considering
the ground moisture in place due to the recent rains. Currently,
temperatures and dewpoints are rather uniform through the area in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, amid light winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in terrific
agreement aloft through the the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a key trough driving through the
southern Ohio Valley today and then off to the northeast of
Kentucky on Saturday. This trough brings ample mid level energy
and some decent 5h height falls to the region, particularly this
afternoon. The tail to this elongating trough then only gradually
retreats from the area on Saturday with ample energy remaining in
the eastern parts of Kentucky through evening. Given the very
small model spread have gone with the NBM as the starting point
for the forecast grids with little adjustment needed aside from
some incorporation of the latest CAMs guidance for PoPs through
the period.

Sensible weather features another couple of days with a fairly
high threat of showers and thunderstorms. This will be driven by
the high humidity (with PWS from 1.6 to 1.8 inches) and upper
level support in place. The clouds and pcpn will keep temperatures
capped and more tolerable than Thursday though humidity will
remain quite sticky both today and Saturday. Storms will likely
have a good chance to become organized and form clusters today
(CAPE above 2k J/kg with some shear) which continues the threat of
strong winds gusts and local excessive rains. For this reason,
and given antecedent conditions for the southwestern 2/3rds of the
CWA have kept the flood watch for this area into the early
evening. For tonight, skies will remain rather cloudy with low
stratus expected to fill in any breaks that develop, along with
areas of fog - locally dense. This will also keep temperatures
mild and fairly uniform through dawn Saturday. Convection will
probably redevelop on Saturday with diurnal heating and favor the
eastern portions of the JKL CWA. However, less CAPE will be
available with weaker shear so any storms should struggle to
become too robust or organized.

The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adding in
some PoP details from the CAMs through Saturday afternoon while
limiting the higher values for our western counties on Saturday.
Did not make much change to temperatures or dewpoints from the NBM
through the period given the high humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2024

The 02/00z model suite 500H analysis shows a western ridge-
eastern trough pattern in place at the beginning of the period.
Specifically, a positively-tilted trough extends along the western
slopes of the Appalachians from an ~540 dam low over northern
Quebec. Meanwhile, an ~597 dam high is centered over the Central
Rockies and is in control of the weather across much of the CONUS
west of the Mississippi. At the surface, eastern Kentucky is
under a post-frontal regime in the wake of Friday Night/Saturday's
cold front, which extends from a weak low along the Mid-Atlantic
Coast down to along the Central Gulf Coast. Further north,
another front is stalled from the Upper Midwest across the
northern Great Lakes and then arcing northward to an ~995 mb low
over the Hudson Bay. High pressure is found between these two
fronts across the Central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley and also
north of the boundary over the Canadian Prairie provinces.

These high pressure systems will bring a much drier long-term period
to eastern Kentucky than what we have seen recently, as the
eastern through axis shifts further east and slowly fills while
the western ridge expands eastward and also slowly subsides.
Within this deamplifying pattern, the only notable weather-maker,
and likely minor at that, will be passing upper level shortwave
that will nudge the next cold front into/through the JKL CWA,
most likely on next Wednesday. The front itself and its parent
forcing appear anemic and the system lacks access to significant
deep moisture. Therefore, PoPs are only in the 10 to 30 percent
chance range on Wednesday and Thursday.

Aside from the low-end threat for showers and thunderstorms with the
cool front mid-week, the only other mentionable chance of rain in
the forecast is early Saturday night as any leftover showers and
storms fade and dissipate as the upper trough axis pulls away. High
pressure rules the roost from Sunday through Tuesday with fair
skies. After bottoming out on Saturday, temperatures will begin
warming again, topping out in the mid 80s on Sunday, near 90 on
Monday and lower 90s on Tuesday. Nighttime lows are forecast to
range in the mid 60s to around 70. Those temperatures only cool a
few degrees with the mid-week cold front, still making a run for
highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday while nighttime lows cool
off to the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms will work
across the region ahead of an approaching upper level trough and
cold front, with coverage likely peaking through 23Z. Within any
thunderstorms at least brief MVFR or lower ceilings and MVFR/IFR
visibility cannot be ruled out. Outside of convection, VFR
should prevail to begin the period. Tempo groups for thunder on
station were used for a time during the first 2 to 3 hours at
for KLOZ and KJKL for convection working across the southern
portions of the area. The convection should scatter out between
00Z and 06Z, giving way to some low clouds and fog thereafter. Fog
and low clouds should gradually lift to end the period. Winds
will average southwest to west at 10KT or less ahead of the front
through 00Z, with stronger and erratic gusts with any
thunderstorms. Generally light and variable winds will prevail
tonight, before becoming west and northwest averaging less than
10KT to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ058-068-069-079-
080-083>088-111>118.

&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1058 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

KYZ087-088-113-115-117-118-021545-
Perry KY-Knott KY-Bell KY-Harlan KY-Letcher KY-Leslie KY-
1058 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HARLAN...NORTHEASTERN BELL...
LESLIE...WESTERN LETCHER...SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KNOTT
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...

At 1057 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Hyden to Napier to Tacky Town to Kentenia.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Whitesburg, Harlan, Hyden, Letcher, Cumberland, Loyall, Evarts,
Lynch, Benham, Wallins Creek, Blackey, Big Fork, Bobs Creek, Sandy
Fork, Leatherwood, Hoskinston, Van, Bledsoe, Dizney, and Louellen.

THIS INCLUDES Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 40 and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 8368 3692 8357 3698 8345 3717 8349
      3722 8286 3701 8281 3698 8287 3693 8286
      3691 8288 3690 8287 3685 8301 3685 8307
      3678 8313 3674 8314 3674 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 266DEG 31KT 3716 8334 3700 8331 3686 8344 3680
8341

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP

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