Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
638 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Torrential rainfall in showers and thunderstorms may pose an
  elevated risk of flash flooding across eastern Kentucky,
  especially south of the Mountain Parkway, through Friday.

- The threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with
  damaging wind gusts persists, primarily during the afternoon/
  evening hours, through Friday.

- Heat and humidity will persist through Friday, with heat indices
  forecast to near 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 455 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2024

Late this afternoon, an expansive upper level ridge was centered
in the vicinity of the Four Corners region and extended across
most of the western Conus as well as across the Southeast Conus.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper low was working across the
upper MS Valley to Mid MS Valley regions with an additional couple
of shortwaves working through the OH Valley region. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was working across the upper MS
Valley with a cold front trailing into the central to southern
Plains regions and a warm front southeast toward the Lower OH
Valley region. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure extended from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast Conus. With the eastern
KY region in the warm sector between these two systems, a moist
airmass was in place across the region with PW generally on the
order of 1.7 to 1.75 inches at this time. Surface dewpoints were
in the low to mid 70s at present with temperatures in the mid 80s
to low 90s. MLCAPE was analyzed in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range
while effective shear was generally 25KT or less. At present, the
region was free of convection while an MCS was upstream of the
region and extended from Southern IN into portions of central and
western KY.

This evening and tonight, the upper low and associated shortwave
trough is expected to track southeast to the Great Lakes to Lower
OH valley regions per the consensus of guidance with multiple
disturbance working across the OH Valley region. Through tonight,
the sfc low will gradually work to the southeast corner of Lake MI
with the trailing cold front entering the Lower OH Valley. PW is
forecast to remain in roughly the 1.75 to 2 inch range for much of
the night, though it should decrease late. The upstream MCS
should continue east and southeast per recent CAM runs and arrive
into the area between 6 PM and 8 PM and then progress to the VA
border through around midnight. Some instability should remain as
it arrives, with MLCAPE on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg range at
that point though instability will begin to diminish as the
evening progresses. Effective shear is forecast to be marginal in
the 25 to 30 KT range. DCAPE ahead of the MCS is forecast to be
less than the past couple of days, but still decent at 1000 to
1100 J/kg. Wind gusts and heavy rain rates still appear to be the
main threats as the system works across the area. Some areas
across the southern portions of the forecast area have received 1
to 5 inches of rain over the past few days. There has been some
time for the ground to recover since heavier rain fell on
Wednesday and Wednesday evening, but in any locations that pick up
multiple rounds showers and storms, excessive rain could result
in instances of flash flooding. Behind the MCS, chances for
showers and storms will diminish, but a few showers or storms
cannot be ruled out overnight.

Friday and Friday night, the upper level low/trough should move
gradually to the eastern Great Lakes to TN Valley regions
downstream of upper level ridging over the western Conus. The frontal
zone associated with the upper level trough should continue east
and southeast and gradually enter eastern KY late on Friday night.
Ahead of the front and upper level trough, multiple weak
disturbances will cross the area with PW forecast to return into
the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range on Friday. Daytime heating combined with
the approaching front and mid level disturbances should result in
an increase in coverage of convection on Friday. Heating of the
warm and moist airmass should result in MLCAPE on the order of
2000 J/kg with shear on the marginal side. Strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out on Friday afternoon and evening with any of
the more robust cells. Additional rounds of convection may
progress across areas that were affected by heavy rainfall in
recent days and the Flood Watch for the southwest portion of the
area was extended into Friday evening. Chances for convection will
linger through Friday night, though coverage should decrease.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2024

Deterministic models and their ensembles continue to remain in very
good agreement for the start of the period as they continue to hint
at a shortwave existing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, the
low is forecast to remain over the Ohio Valley. This will keep PoP
chances across the area through the day Saturday. As mean upper-
level pull shifts northeast and increasing heights build in from the
southwest, high pressure and drier air will begin to build into the
region. This will push the Ohio Valley low out of the region
bringing an end to the PoP chances for the end of the weekend into
next week.

Next week continues to look dry as upper-level ridging remains in
place. However, the main jet will be to the north of the area and
multiple weak perturbations are forecast to move through the mean
flow. While, the best forcing looks to be across the Great Lakes and
north of the Ohio River, can't rule out days of increased cloud
cover or a stray shower or storm working into the Commonwealth. The
Rain chances begin to increase Wednesday into Thursday as a cold
front dives southeast into the region.

Overall, the forecast period will start with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in and bring drier weather.
Temperatures will peak in the upper-80s to low-90s during the day
and mid to upper-60s overnight. A passing system may approach the
area for the end of the forecast period bringing renewed chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2024

A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will be entering the
western part of the forecast area by 00z, with activity moving
quickly east through ~03-04z. Strong gusty winds will likely
impact all TAF sites as the storms move through. Reductions down
to MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility cannot be ruled out as
well between 06 and 13Z in some areas, with this most probable at
KSYM and KJKL, in higher terrain near the VA border, and with fog
in deeper valleys. VFR conditions are expected to return to all
areas at the end the period. Otherwise, light and variable winds
are expected outside of convection with west to west-southwest
winds generally less than 10 kts developing toward the 15z-17z
period Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for KYZ058-068-069-079-080-
083>088-111>118.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106>110-119-120-022000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-
Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Martin-Pike-
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe
and produce damaging winds and possibly hail this evening. An
isolated spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, any
location that receives multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
could experience instances of isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday, and also from
Tuesday to Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall leading to isolated flooding cannot be ruled out on
Friday.

The combination of high humidity and hot temperatures is expected to
bring afternoon heat indices peaking near 100 for some locations on
Friday and also from Monday to Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any occurrences of flooding or thunderstorm
wind damage through tonight.

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>088-111>118-022000-
Estill-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-
Bell-Harlan-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe
and produce damaging winds and possibly hail this evening. An
isolated spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. Multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms could lead to instances of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday, and also from
Tuesday to Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall leading to isolated flooding cannot be ruled out on
Friday.

The combination of high humidity and hot temperatures is expected to
bring afternoon heat indices peaking near 100 for some locations on
Friday and also from Monday to Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any occurrences of flooding or
thunderstorm wind damage through tonight.

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Jackson KY
407 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Steubenville      36.91N 84.82W
07/31/2024                   Wayne              KY   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees and also powerlines were
            reported to have been blown down along
            KY1275 North in the direction of Conley
            Bottom. The event time and location are
            radar estimated.

0614 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cooksburg               37.39N 84.19W
07/31/2024                   Rockcastle         KY   Public

            A tree was reported to have been blown down
            in the Crooked Creek community in the
            vicinity of Cooksburg. The event time is
            radar estimated.

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Somerset Pulaski  37.05N 84.63W
07/31/2024                   Pulaski            KY   911 Call Center

            A tree was reported to have been blown down
            onto Southridge Drive. The event time is
            radar estimated.

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Garden Village    37.40N 82.48W
07/31/2024                   Pike               KY   911 Call Center

            Pike County 911 Center reported a tree down
            at the corner of Gillespi Branch and Greasy
            Creek Rd. Time estimated from radar.

0659 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Whitley City            36.73N 84.48W
07/31/2024                   McCreary           KY   911 Call Center

            McCreary County 911 center relayed a report
            of a tree down at the intersection where Old
            Bailey Rd turns into Hollaway Cemetery Rd.
            Time estimated from radar.

0732 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Vest                    37.40N 83.01W
07/31/2024                   Knott              KY   911 Call Center

            Hazard State Highway Patrol Post relayed a
            report of a tree down on the 3800 block of
            KY-1087 in Knott County. Time estimated from
            radar.

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Waneta             37.45N 84.02W
07/31/2024                   Jackson            KY   911 Call Center

            A tree was reported to have been blown down
            near 1800 US 421 North of McKee. The event
            time is radar estimated.

0627 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Olin                37.34N 83.97W
07/31/2024                   Jackson            KY   911 Call Center

            A tree was reported to have been blown down
            near 400 Bailey Road. The event time is
            radar estimated.

0713 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Clayhole          37.46N 83.32W
07/31/2024                   Breathitt          KY   Law Enforcement

            A tree was reported to have been blown down
            along KY 15. The event time is radar
            estimated.

0113 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Kettle Island      36.78N 83.62W
07/31/2024                   Bell               KY   Public

            Pictures on social media show several inches
            of water flowing over Blanton Branch Road.

0115 PM     Flash Flood      Kettle Island           36.79N 83.61W
07/31/2024                   Bell               KY   Public

            Pictures on social media show several inches
            of water flowing down Kettle Island Branch
            Road a few hundred feet downstream from
            Newtown Branch Road.

0130 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Varilla           36.75N 83.61W
07/31/2024                   Bell               KY   Public

            Social media post showed flooding along
            KY-987 a half mile from the US 119 and
            KY-987 intersection.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
653 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

KYZ079-083-084-012330-
McCreary KY-Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
653 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI AND NORTH CENTRAL MCCREARY COUNTIES THROUGH 730
PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Steubenville, or over Monticello, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Burnside, Oil Valley, Greenwood, Sloans Valley, Parkers
Lake, Barrier, Alpine, Gregory, Bronston, Quinton, Betsey, Ritner,
Delta, Frazer, Tateville, Denney, Kidder, Mill Springs, and General
Burnside S.P..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
south central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 8488 3693 8494 3705 8451 3681 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 256DEG 38KT 3686 8482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

VORST

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