Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
426 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from
  tonight through Tuesday.

- A few storms this evening and again Sunday could be strong to
  severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
  threats.

- An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will lead to
  somewhat cooler temperatures from Thursday into the first of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 426 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024

A cold front was situated from near Paducah to Detroit this
afternoon, weakening and slowing down as it headed southeast. The
front should stall as it tries to move into KY. Humid air is
present ahead of the front and has been fueling some showers and
thunderstorms. However, clouds have hindered destabilization in
many places. Even where sunshine did send temperatures into the
80s, activity has been limited due to a lack of significant upper
level features. With modest shear in place and ML CAPE of
2500-3000 J/KG where heating occurred, if storms can develop or
move in, severe weather can't be ruled out and will need to be
watched closely. The greatest concentration of showers and storms
is currently headed into our southwestern counties and the
highest POP has been placed there as we head into the evening.
Models suggest this will last into the evening, followed by a
general decrease in activity across the region at least until
dawn approaches. A shortwave trough currently supporting
convection in TX and OK will move rapidly east northeast and
should support a round of showers/thunderstorms moving into our
area early Thursday morning. This will hinder destabilization on
Thursday and limit a severe wx threat. The precipitation is
forecast to decrease from west to east in the afternoon, leaving
only minimal potential for anything else through Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024

An active pattern is shaping up across the Ohio Valley through the
extended period of the forecast. The period begin Friday, with a
mid-level wave pushing toward the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee
Valley. The various ensembles and deterministic have been varying
a little on placement and timing of this feature. This will give
way to around a 60-80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly Friday afternoon and evening. The highs will be closer to
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday, a ill defined frontal boundary will be nearby and this
could spark off a few showers and thunderstorms (around 40-60
percent chance), but coverage looks a little less, with better
mid- and upper level forcing west of the area. This as we see
slight height rises ahead of another mid-level wave noted in the
Plains. The weakly sheared environment would suggest anything that
does form would be unorganized.

Sunday into Sunday night the previously mentioned trough will push
east and surface low will eject out of the Plains into the Midwest.
This will send a round of showers and thunderstorms toward the Ohio
Valley Sunday afternoon and another wave possible Sunday night. The
parameter space right now looks a little better for more organized
convection, with MUCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg amid 40-50
knots of effective shear. The question will be how do the
multiple rounds of convection trend and how does that affect what
happens downstream. This as, some of the medium range CAM
solutions suggest overnight convection pushes into eastern
Kentucky by Sunday afternoon. Either way it was enough for SPC to
include a portion of eastern Kentucky in slight risk for severe
weather given the favorable pattern. The primary hazards would be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Sunday night into Monday the previously mention low pressure is
forecast to push into the Great Lakes as it becomes vertically
stacked in the mid- and upper levels. This will help pull a cold
front across the area by Monday afternoon. Given the uncertainty
in overnight convective evolution the risk for severe weather is
uncertain. Even so, some ensemble and deterministic guidance
suggest the potential for marginally severe storms would be
possible in far eastern and southeastern parts of Kentucky, with a
cold front pushing across the area. This as EPS/GEFS/GEPS
ensemble mean of greater than 1000 J/kg of CAPE matched with
greater than 30 knots of bulk shear is around 30 percent.

More uncertainty comes Tuesday and Wednesday, as a mid- and upper
level closed low pushes across the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. This will help send another cold front across the area
during this time period with models showing several different
solutions of timing and evolution. Given this stuck with the general
chance range for PoPs (at around 25-40 percent peaking in the
afternoon. The pattern overall looks much cooler to round out the
period, with highs forecast to be in the low to mid 70s both
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024

An area of showers/thunderstorms is currently making its way into
eastern KY from the west. Coverage is incomplete, and the TAFs are
presently being handled with VCTS due to uncertainty of where they
will hit. However, IFR or worse conditions can be expected in the
heavier precip. Outside of the precip, mainly VFR conditions are
expected until early Thursday morning. A more widespread area of
showers/thunderstorms is forecast to arrive from the west on
Thursday morning with IFR and MVFR conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
405 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-231100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
405 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...through tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible at times, especially through this evening.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds
being the primary threat. However, large hail can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times. The greatest risk of severe
thunderstorms during this time is on Sunday and Sunday night, with
damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance may be needed this evening.

HAL/DJ

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