Tornado Warning 40, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
946 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and thunderstorms have moved through the inland most
counties of southeast Georgia this morning, producing widespread
1-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts of 4-7 inches
reported. The rest of southeast Georgia will be clear of
convection within the next few hours as a broken line of
thunderstorms moves southeastward, creating gusty winds near 30-45
mph and locally heavy downpours. The tornado threat continues
through this afternoon for northeast Florida given strong wind
shear and increasing surface temperatures and dewpoints creating a
more unstable environment.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rounds of stratiform rain showers and embedded thunderstorms have
moved across most of SE GA and portions of the Suwanee valley
since prior to midnight with the highest rain totals thus far
around an inch to an inch and a half along and west of US 441 in
SE GA and western Hamilton and western Suwanee counties. Winds
are south to southeasterly winds of 10-20 mph have been observed
over NE FL with higher gusts along the coast and the St Johns
river up to 30 mph. Temperatures have been en steady in the low
to mid 70s over NE FL and cooler in SE GA in the mid to upper 60s.
Dewpoints have crept up overnight over far western areas from
the low 60s to the upper 60s approaching 70 ahead of the main
convective line of storms moving east into the Big Bend region
of northern FL just to our west.

This line will move into the far western counties of SE GA and the
Suwanee valley of NE FL first over the next few hours before
sunrise, then eastward into inland SE GA towards US 301 and the
I-75 corridor of NE FL through late morning. Thereafter, the line
will swiftly move east across the rest of the forecast area by
midday to early afternoon, then pressing off the NE FL coast by
mid afternoon. The line will be supported dynamically by strong
synoptic lift as a potent mid to upper level shortwave digs into
the TN valley and deep south from the lower to mid MS valley
placing our area in the diffluent region of a very strong jet.
Some uncertainty remains as to how much surface instability will
be present ahead of the line due to weak lapse rates in the mid
levels and abundant cloud cover as the storms approach, but
at least 500-100 J/kg should allow for embedded storms scattered
to numerous T'storms producing a threat for locally damaging
wind gusts 50-70 mph as well as isolated tornadoes due to the
strong shear environment as southerly to south southwesterly
winds veer quickly in the low levels with a 50 knot low level
jet present ahead of the line. Outside of T'storms, windy
conditions will be in place with sustained southwesterly winds
20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph.

Rain totals will be on the order of 1-2 inches for SE GA and
the Suwanee valley with locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches
over far western areas that have already seen amounts around
1 inch overnight. Behind the line, rain will end and clouds
will lift with partial clearing by sunset over the NE FL coast.
Highs will peak around 80 behind the line over inland SE GA and
low to mid 80s over the NE FL coast and St Johns basin before
the line arrives.

Tonight, skies will clear become clear after midnight with
winds remaining breezy as high pressure builds in from the
west. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Sunny, dry and cooler Friday with gusty WNW winds as a re-enforcing
front moves across the area. Gusty, dry WNW will near 30 mph at
times. Wind gusts subside Friday night into Saturday as surface
high pressure builds across the northern Gulf Coast states,
centering over the local forecast area through Saturday night.
Model guidance is not too keen on fog potential Saturday night for
inland areas at this time, but given calm boundary layer winds,
minimal dew pt depressions, mostly clear skies and recent ground
moisture, inland patchy ground fog was introduced after midnight
Saturday night.

Seasonably warm high temperatures will near climo values each day
with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Slightly cooler than
normal lows due to the dry air and clear skies will range in the
upper 40s to near 50 inland to mid 50s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A warning trend ensues Sunday with an extended period of dry weather
through mid-week as surface high pressure builds offshore of the
FL Atlantic coast with a ridge axis across the FL peninsula while
a strong upper level ridge (592 dam) amplifies over the eastern
GOMEX. Daily sea breezes will develop and move inland each day,
with the east coast more dominant. Still too dry for any
precipitation potential.

High temperatures will progressively warm well above climo values
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland Tue/Wed. Mild above
normal lows will range in the 60s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The 12Z TAF period will start very active after beginning with
MVFR/IFR ceilings at SSI and MVFR conditions at Northeast Florida
TAF sites as showers increase ahead of a strong cold front that
will generate an intense line of thunderstorms that will sweep
through all sites later today 14-18Z with IFR restrictions and
wind gusts up to 40-45 knots. Have wind shear in TAF for very
strong low level winds above the surface 2.0-3.0 kft.

MVFR ceilings around 2.5 to 3.0 kft will be common from the
stratiform and convective rain showers increasing ahead of the
main line of thunderstorms.

Ahead of the line today windy conditions expected from the south
ahead of the storms then backing to the southwest behind the storms
this afternoon 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30-35 knots. As the
cold front exits by 22Z-00Z, winds will shift more westerly 15-20
knots with gusts lingering 20-25 knots and ceilings return to VFR
levels. Winds will relax from the west after 06Z-08Z 6-10 knots
inland and 10-12 knots at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching strong
cold this morning will lead to Advisory level conditions nearshore
and Gale conditions offshore. The strong cold front will cross
the waters through this afternoon with strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and waterspouts. Behind the
line of storms skies will clear tonight with continued elevated
winds and seas as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds
and seas will diminish by Saturday after the passage of a dry cold
front Friday night. The high will build over the waters Sunday
and then shift east of the waters early next week.

Rip Currents: Windy south to southeasterly winds and elevated surf
heights of 4-6 feet will create a high risk of rip currents at
all area beaches today. A moderate risk at all beaches expected
on Friday as offshore winds relax through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Showers and storms move west to east across SE GA and NE FL through
today, with rainfall ending by early afternoon across SE GA and
by the evening across NE FL. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-1
inch are expected, with locally heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches
possible. Severe storms are possible today and will be capable of
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts
of 35-45 mph are expected. A reinforcing dry front will move
across the area Friday, with gusty WNW winds near 30 mph at times.
Winds subside into Saturday as surface high pressure builds
directly over the area with near critical humidity inland.

Gusty and erratic wind gusts will occur from thunderstorms. Patchy
inland fog is possible Saturday night. An extended period of warm
and dry weather is expected Sunday through much of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be common over SE GA with near
1 inch totals over NE FL where the storms will progress quickly
today. Higher totals of 2-4 inches is possible in far western
portions of SE GA and the suwannee valley where an inch of rain
has already fallen.

Minor flooding will continue on the Satilla river basin at Atkinson
through tonight, potentially lingering until this weekend while
minor river flooding continues on the lower Santa Fe basin at
Three rivers through next week. Heavy rainfall may lead to minor
flooding returning along the Altamaha basin at Baxley and
Charlottesville by the end of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  54  76  49 / 100  10   0   0
SSI  76  56  76  54 /  90   0   0   0
JAX  79  56  78  52 /  90   0   0   0
SGJ  81  57  79  55 /  90   0   0   0
GNV  77  55  78  49 /  90   0   0   0
OCF  79  55  78  51 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

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