Tornado Warning 25, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
401 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
...GALE CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY ON MONDAY EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY EVENING
THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts strong low pressure (996
millibars) decelerating its northward speed over eastern portions
of the FL panhandle. A warm front extends eastward from this low
pressure center, with this boundary moving northward across north
central FL. A frontal occlusion extends northwestward from the
surface low across the lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile,
weakening high pressure (1018 millibars) was centered over
southern VA. Aloft...a highly amplified weather pattern continues,
with troughing extending across the lower Mississippi Valley and
the southern Plains states taking on an increasingly negative
tilt, with this storm system essentially being blocked by stout
ridging that extends from Hudson Bay, CA southeastward across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Shortwave troughs were located south
and southeast of the mean trough position over the northern Gulf
of Mexico, with one of these features approaching the FL Big Bend
region from the west late this afternoon. A band of moderate to
heavy showers located well north of the lifting warm front continues
to pull northward towards the Altamaha River in southeast GA
early this afternoon. A dry slot wrapping into this large storm
system has overspread north central and northeast FL, with breaks
in the multi-layered cloud cover allowing for instability to
increase for locations south of Waycross, which has combined with
steep lapse rates and cold air aloft to produce increasing
coverage of low-topped convection. Temperatures in the warm sector
south of the warm front have risen to the lower 70s across north
central FL as of 21Z, with 60s across the rest of northeast FL and
coastal southeast GA. Dewpoints in these locations were generally
in the lower 60s, while temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in
the 50s to the north of the warm frontal boundary across inland
southeast GA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

Short-term, high resolution guidance indicates that downpours and
embedded convection north of the advancing warm front will lift
north of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers towards sunset. Meanwhile,
scattered low-topped convection will continue to push north-
northeastward from the I-75 and I-10 corridors into southeast GA,
with the eastern extent of this strong to severe convection
brushing the I-95 corridor through around sunset. Stronger storms
will be capable of producing hail, downburst winds of 40-60 mph,
and briefly heavy downpours. An isolated tornado or two cannot be
ruled out due to the presence of the lifting warm front and
mesoscale boundary interactions, mainly for locations along and
north of the I-10 corridor. Low-topped convection will then
quickly lift into the more stable environment located north of
Waycross this evening, where an elevated storm or two could
produce small hail and gusty downburst winds.

Low pressure over the Deep South will then weaken overnight, with
a loosening pressure gradient likely allowing for low stratus and
possibly patches of locally dense fog to form during the
overnight and predawn hours as convection lifts north of the
Altamaha River. Cool air advection wrapping into this decelerating
storm system will overspread our region overnight, dropping lows
into the 40s inland and lower 50s at coastal and urban locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

Low pressure will sit off the Georgia coast, and slowly push away
through Tuesday. With the low strengthening offshore and moving
away from the coast, scattered showers will be present throughout
the day Monday and overnight through Tuesday morning, and isolated
thunderstorms are likely over the local waters. The last of the
precipitation chances will leave coastal northeast Florida by late
morning on Tuesday. As the low strengthens, a surge of
northeasterly winds will impact the local area from Monday evening
through Tuesday night. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible
along the coast, along with beach erosion, rough surf, and minor
coastal flooding, a Wind Advisory may be necessary. As high
pressure begins to build to the north, winds will slowly decrease
Tuesday night. Temperatures will be just below normal on Monday
and Tuesday, with Tuesday night being the coldest of the week.
Many locations across inland southeast Georgia will see low
temperatures in the mid 30s, however it will likely still be too
windy for frost formation Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

Dry conditions will be in place for the rest of the week, with
seasonal temperatures gradually warming up into the 70s by Friday
and Saturday area-wide. Wednesday night, low temperatures will
again drop into the mid 30s across inland SE GA, and with calmer
winds, patchy frost may form. Low temperatures will follow the
gradual warming trend towards the end of the week, Friday and
Saturday nights will only drop into the 50s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

Heavy showers will impact the SSI terminal through around 21Z,
with IFR conditions expected to prevail during this time frame.
Showers are exiting the northeast FL terminals early this
afternoon, with periods of MVFR ceilings possible through around
20Z. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to blossom along
the Interstate 75 corridor towards 19Z, with this low-topped
convection potentially strengthening and organizing into a broken
squall line as it progresses northeastward towards the regional
terminals during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Thunderstorms could begin approaching the GNV terminal towards 20Z
and then the Duval County terminals and SGJ after 21Z. We included
TEMPO groups through around or just after 00Z at these terminals
for brief wind gusts up to 35 knots and IFR visibilities during
heavier downpours. A brief lull in heavier showers will likely
occur at SSI after 21Z, with prevailing MVFR ceilings expected
until the next round of convection arrives towards sunset.
Convection should then exit the SSI terminal towards 02Z, with
lingering showers and MVFR ceilings possible through around 06Z.

Periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible at the northeast FL
terminals through around 04Z, and then low stratus and fog are
expected to overspread the regional terminals from around 07Z
through 14Z Monday. IFR conditions are likely to prevail at the
regional terminals during the predawn and early morning hours on
Monday, with improvements expected towards 15Z. Gusty
southeasterly surface winds sustained at 15-20 knots, except
easterly at SSI, will shift to southerly while gradually weakening
back to around 10 knots early this evening, following the
conclusion of convection. Surface winds will then veer to
southwesterly late this evening and then westerly overnight, with
surface speeds falling to around 5 knots or less. Northerly
surface winds will then increase to 5-10 knots following the
dissipation of fog and low stratus towards 15Z on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

Strengthening low pressure is moving onshore along the Florida
panhandle coast this afternoon, pushing a warm front northward
across the northeast Florida waters late this afternoon. Heavy
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to
impact the Georgia waters through late afternoon, followed by the
potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across our
local waters through early this evening. Stronger storms could
produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and waterspouts. Small Craft
Advisories will continue into this evening throughout our local
waters, mainly due to elevated seas. Winds will shift to westerly
overnight and will subside, allowing for winds and seas to fall
below Small Craft Advisory levels by early Monday morning.

This storm system will linger over the southeastern states early
this week, with another low pressure center developing near the
northwestern Bahamas on Monday afternoon and evening. This
feature will result in an abrupt surge of northerly winds on
Monday afternoon and evening that will overspread our waters from
north to south. Gale Warnings have been issued throughout our
local waters from Monday evening through early Tuesday evening.
Seas will peak in the 6-10 foot range near shore on Tuesday and
Tuesday night, with seas offshore peaking in the 12-17 foot range.
Periods of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Low
pressure will then accelerate northeastward towards Bermuda while
strengthening on Tuesday night and Wednesday, allowing high
pressure to build along the U.S. eastern seaboard in the wake of
this storm system. Winds and seas will gradually subside on
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Rip Currents / High Surf / Beach Erosion: Strong onshore winds
and building seas will result in a high risk of deadly rip
currents at all area beaches that will continue for most of the
upcoming week. Significant beach erosion is likely during times
of high tide from Monday night through Wednesday as a surge of
strong northerly winds overspreads our local beaches, creating
breakers of 5-7 feet at the southeast GA beaches and possibly
around 10 feet at the northeast FL beaches by Tuesday.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024

A strengthening storm system over the Gulf Stream waters north of
the Bahamas on Monday afternoon and evening will intensify further
as it accelerates northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong
northerly winds, building seas, and some astronomical influence
from the upcoming New Moon later this week will likely result in
minor flooding around times of high tide along the Atlantic coast,
especially during the early morning high tides on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Water levels may also approach minor flooding around
times of high tide on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday within the
St. Johns River basin, especially for locations south of downtown
Jacksonville.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  47  57  40  58 /  80  40   0   0
SSI  52  59  44  56 /  70  30  20   0
JAX  49  64  45  59 /  40  30  20   0
SGJ  53  63  48  58 /  20  30  40  10
GNV  49  64  46  62 /  20  40  10   0
OCF  51  64  47  63 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-
     472-474.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-
     452-470-472.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ454-
     474.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ470.

&&

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