Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
703 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Convection continues deepen across the northern Gulf along the
Florida panhandle this morning. Given the supportive shear
dynamics and anticipation of SBCAPE increases across SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley over the next few hours, the risk for isolated
tornadoes will be possible.

A Tornado Watch has been issued and extends northeastward from
Suwannee County into southeastern GA and the adjacent Atlantic
waters north of Fernandina Beach. This watch is in effect until 1
PM EDT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Deep lift provided by a potent trough and upper jet will aid in deep
convection along a prefrontal trough that is currently sliding east
across Alabama into western Georgia and along the Florida panhandle
as of 3 AM. A stout low level jet will precede the front itself
resulting in heavily sheared low levels with bulk shear around
40-50 kts in the lowest 3km. This dynamic energy will fuel
organized cells embedded within the larger squall line as it
presses into Suwannee Valley and interior southeast GA zones
around sunrise. The line will progress to the southeast through
the morning and exit to the south late this afternoon.

Given the environmental set up, ALL MODES of severe weather will
be possible today, which includes damaging winds, hail, isolated
tornadoes, and localized flooding. Based on the latest HiRes
ensemble forecasts indicate the potential for a few strong
organized supercell that may track from the Big Bend all the way
across NE FL. The persistent signals and multi-model agreement has
lead to increased confidence in severe weather, particularly
across NE FL early this afternoon. Despite the squall line's
progressiveness and dry antecedent, training storms across NE FL
could lead to episodic and localized flooding, especially in urban
areas.

In addition to the severe storm threat today, the enhanced winds
aloft will surface as times leading to wind gusts from 35-45 mph
across NE FL along with strong sustained winds up to 25 mph at
times. The previous Wind Advisory today was extended northward
across most of the NE FL zones, including the Jax Metro.

Tonight, drier post-frontal airmass will advect from the WNW and
scour out low level moisture/cloud cover while winds trend much
lighter as local gradients begin to relax. Temperatures today will
be augmented by cloud cover and rainfall, with highs mainly in
the 70s except across portions of north-central FL where readings
could break into the lower 80s. Much cooler temps tonight under
clearing skies with readings falling into the upper 40s in SE GA
and low/mid 50s in NE FL.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)

Breezy westerly winds will fill in behind the cold frontal passage
on Thursday, with clear skies and cooler temperatures forecast.
Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across NE FL and SE
GA, with very similar highs expected on Friday as well as winds
shift a tad more northwesterly. Lows Thursday night will fall into
the mid to upper 40s inland, with lower 50s on the east coast.
Friday night will be a few degrees colder area-wide as cold air
advects southward into the area with elevated overnight
northwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)

A beautiful weekend is forecast for NE FL and SE GA, with
northerly winds keeping highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s on
Saturday. Saturday night will be the last night in the near-future
will low temperatures dropping into the 40s. By Sunday, winds
will shift to easterly as high pressure to our north shifts
easterly, allowing for a warm up in temps, with highs reaching the
mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to mid 70s along the
immediate coast, with mostly sunny skies. Most inland locations
will see highs in the 80s on Monday and Tuesday, with the coast a
few degrees cooler in the 70s. Lows will be mild in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

A cold frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
TAF sites later this morning and afternoon with potential for IFR
and certainly high chance of MVFR. Timing of the convection generally
on track, around 14z-18z for SSI, and an hour or so later for the
rest of the TAFs. It looks like most of the stronger storm activity
will be southeast of the TAFs by 19z-20z. Potential exists for
strong to severe thunderstorms embedded in this activity today
mainly with strong gusty winds and very brief, but very heavy
rainfall. Scattered showers will linger and develop behind the
front/squall line but continue to push east and southeast this
afternoon and evening. Improving conditions expected by 22z for
all TAFs. Outside of storms, winds will strengthen and become
quite gusty especially during the morning and afternoon; 25-35
knot gusts will be common until the front passes this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Increasing southwest winds will spread from the outer waters toward
the nearshore zones this morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Offshore strong offshore winds, with occasional gale force gusts
across the outer waters, will elevate seas to Small Craft Advisory
levels. A line of showers and storms, some being severe, are
anticipated with the frontal passage this afternoon. Occurrences
of hail and isolated waterspouts are possible, mainly this
afternoon. Prolonged period of breezy northwesterly winds will
develop in the wake of the passing front and could linger through
the rest of the week. High pressure will build in over the weekend
that should alleviate the winds and reduce seas.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today, falling to a low risk Thursday
with prevailing offshore winds and reduced surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated W/SW winds will allow for patchy high dispersion values
today, especially over inland SE GA. A cold front will bring
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the area today, with
rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches expected. Winds will stay
breezy after the front passes and shift more W/NW through the end
of the week, with very high dispersion values forecast for
Thursday along with near critically-low relative humidity values
area-wide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Minor flooding is expected to continue through Thursday evening
along upper portions of the Altamaha River near the Baxley gauge.
Otherwise, minor flooding will continue along lower portions of
the Satilla River near the Atkinson gauge during the next several
days. Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near
the Three Rivers Estates gauge are expected to rise above flood
stage on Wednesday morning, with minor flooding then continuing
through the upcoming weekend and into next week.

Rainfall amounts with the storm system impacting our region later
tonight through early Wednesday evening are expected to range in
the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range, with locally higher amounts possible.
These amounts are not expected to result in widespread flooding,
but brief, localized flooding cannot be ruled out, especially if
downpours train over urban or normally flood prone locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  48  68  44 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  76  52  69  49 /  90   0   0   0
JAX  79  52  71  47 / 100   0   0   0
SGJ  81  55  74  50 / 100  10   0   0
GNV  78  51  71  46 / 100   0   0   0
OCF  79  53  73  48 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for FLZ023-024-030-031-033-035-038-124-125-132-133-136>138-
     140-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-422-425-522.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
748 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

FLZ021-120-220-GAZ162-031230-
Western Hamilton FL-Eastern Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-Echols GA-
748 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SUWANNEE...WESTERN
HAMILTON AND SOUTHWESTERN ECHOLS COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM EDT...

At 748 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Madison to 7 miles north
of Perry. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Jasper, Jennings, Suwannee Springs, Statenville, Suwannee
River State Park, Dowling Park, Blue Springs, Crossroads, and
Newburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for northern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3068 8313 3077 8281 3028 8295
      3024 8325 3029 8323 3031 8321 3035 8321
      3035 8319 3038 8319 3039 8317 3041 8318
      3042 8322 3046 8322 3047 8324 3052 8324
      3055 8326 3059 8326 3063 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1148Z 246DEG 44KT 3056 8333 3021 8362

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
813 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

GAZ134>136-031245-
Bacon GA-Appling GA-Wayne GA-
813 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL BACON...
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND CENTRAL APPLING COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EDT...

At 812 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Plant Hatch to 6 miles north of
Alma. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baxley, Surrency, and Odum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for southeastern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8219 3190 8214 3191 8213 3189 8214
      3189 8211 3186 8212 3182 8204 3182 8201
      3179 8199 3179 8196 3176 8194 3175 8191
      3172 8191 3168 8195 3161 8251 3192 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 258DEG 45KT 3191 8221 3164 8244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
825 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

FLZ021-120-220-322-GAZ162-163-031300-
Western Hamilton FL-Eastern Hamilton FL-Northern Columbia FL-
Suwannee FL-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
825 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SUWANNEE...NORTH CENTRAL
COLUMBIA...HAMILTON...ECHOLS AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH COUNTIES THROUGH
900 AM EDT...

At 825 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Statenville to near Suwannee River State
Park. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Jasper, Jennings, Fargo, Suwannee Springs, Statenville,
Suwannee River State Park, Needmore, Belmont, and Blue Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for northern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 8321 3035 8321 3035 8319 3038 8319
      3039 8317 3041 8318 3042 8322 3046 8322
      3047 8324 3050 8324 3063 8315 3063 8314
      3064 8314 3073 8307 3081 8247 3029 8283
      3025 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1225Z 262DEG 33KT 3068 8299 3039 8321

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SHASHY