River Flood Warning 39, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
724 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 526 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Tropical Storm Debby is moving north along the eastern Gulf of
Mexico towards the NE Gulf coast and is forecast to make landfall
Monday morning in the FL Big bend as a Hurricane. Rain showers
and embedded T'storms are lifting north from central FL into
NE FL areas into the I-10 corridor at this hour with earlier
wind gusts up to 53 mph having been observed at Gainesville
Regional Airport this afternoon. Expect these heavy rain bands
and embedded T'storms to contain a continued threat for wind
gusts 35-50 mph as well as isolated tornadoes. A tornado watch
is in effect for all of NE FL and also echols county in SE GA
through 8PM, which may be extended into SE GA later this evening.

Tropical moisture will create very heavy rainfall rates with bands
overnight into Monday with very breezy conditions 15-25 mph with
gusts to 30 mph. However, hurricane conditions are possible as
a hurricane warning is now in effect for portions of the Suwannee
valley near I-10 now through early Tuesday as the center of what
is forecast to become Hurricane Debby moves northeast after
landfall to just west of the Suwannee river into southern GA by
sunset Monday and hurricane conditions are possible west of I-75
over this limited area. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect west
of highway 301 late tonight through early Tuesday with sustained
winds 10-20 mph increasing 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Our
temperatures will cool from their highs that reached the upper 80s
into the 70s now through sunset as clouds and rain coverage
increases. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s
to near 80 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday Night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 526 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The current National Hurricane Forecast has Tropical Storm Debby
developing into a hurricane by this evening, then making landfall
into Apalachee Bay Monday morning and moving northeast from north
west of the Suwannee river into southern GA by Monday evening
and winds will gradually lesson from by Tuesday morning to 15-20
mph and gusts to 30 mph. The system is then forecast to shift east
northeastward Tuesday towards Savannah before slowly moving along
the SC coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tropical moisture and
strong vorticity/convergence around the system will supply very
heavy tropical downpours leading to rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches
over most of NE FL and life threatening flooding rainfall amounts
of 10-15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches possible over
the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and all of SE GA. Slightly lesser
amounts of 4-8 inches expected from the St Johns river to the
coast south of the Jax beaches to Flagler Beach. These rainfall
totals will bring flooding impacts to urban, low-lying, and poor
drainage areas as well as near rivers and streams (see hydrology
section for more information). Continue to monitor the latest
forecast from the National Hurricane Center and subsequent
forecasts for the latest information.

Highs Tuesday will be below normal in the lower to mid 80s over
SE GA and mid to upper 80s over NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 526 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The remnants of Tropical System Debby may still be just northeast
of our area as it shifts slowly away along the SC coast Wednesday.
However, if Debby stalls this midweek another 4 to 8 inches of
rain is possible with locally high amounts, however the official
National Hurricane Center forecast will take the system slowly
away to the northeast towards eastern NC through Friday. At the
end of the week and Saturday, as the tropical system moves out of
the area, the return of typical afternoon sea-breeze convection
will return with scattered to numerous showers and T'storms
possible with the stronger Gulf coast sea-breeze pinning the
Atlantic sea-breeze along the coast. Daytime temperatures will
be a bit below normal Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper
80s as clouds and the circulation from the remnants of Debby stay
near the region, then warm to near normal levels Thursday to the
upper 80s to low 90s and then a bit above average Friday into
Saturday over the area in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Tropical Storm Debby will continue moving through the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight and is expected to strengthen to Hurricane
levels prior to making landfall and will move inland on Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the period with
sustained winds ranging between the east and south with speeds
20-25 knots with gusts of 40 knots or greater through the forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 526 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Tropical Storm Debby will move north across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through tonight, and near landfall as a hurricane in the
Big Bend of Florida early Monday. Increasing winds and seas are
expected this evening into Monday. Squalls will continue to
increase over the coastal waters this evening and become
widespread Monday. Small craft conditions expected over the
Northeast Florida waters south of St Augustine while tropical
storm conditions expected over the waters north of St Augustine
into the Georgia waters as Debby tracks just northwest of the
waters through Tuesday. Elevated winds and seas may persist through
Wednesday and Thursday as the remnants of the system slowly moves
along the southeast coast. Stay tuned throughout today for
further updates.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is in effect today
through Monday evening for both Northeast Florida and Southeast
Georgia and likely into at least Tuesday given the latest tropical
system forecast track.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 526 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate risk of rainfall for
inland Northeast Florida on Today/Tonight. However, a high risk of
excessive rainfall has been placed by WPC over SE GA and the Suwannee
Valley of NE FL Monday with a shift of the high risk on Tuesday to
NE portions of SE GA along and along/north of US341 into Brunswick.

This system will bring life threatening rainfall totals of 10-15
inches with isolated higher totals up to 20 inches from the Suwannee
Valley northeast into SE GA through late Tuesday and flash and urban
flooding impacts are likely. A flood watch is in effect for these
areas highlighted through Tuesday evening. Moderate to Major river
flooding is expected at most sites along our area basins as a
result of this system through this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  81  73  83 /  60 100 100  90
SSI  79  85  77  86 /  90 100 100  90
JAX  77  84  76  87 /  90 100  90  90
SGJ  77  86  76  88 /  90  90  80  90
GNV  75  81  75  85 /  90 100  80  80
OCF  76  83  77  86 /  90  90  80  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-
     136-140-225-236-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
     035-120-124-125-136-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-
     425-522.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ021-220.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-
     166-250-264-350-364.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-
     162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.

     Storm Surge Warning for GAZ154-166.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-452-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
642 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ035-140-236-240-340-042330-
Western Alachua FL-Central Marion FL-Western Marion FL-Gilchrist FL-
Eastern Marion FL-
642 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILCHRIST...SOUTHWESTERN ALACHUA
AND CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Williston, moving northwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ocala, Trenton, Bell, Archer, Anthony, Silver Springs Shores, Santos,
Ocala Airport, Newberry, and Belleview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for northern
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8241 2948 8241 2948 8255 2954 8256
      2953 8265 2956 8266 2956 8275 2958 8278
      2959 8296 2962 8297 2964 8296 2970 8296
      2970 8294 2971 8295 2990 8279 2916 8191
      2903 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 138DEG 33KT 2932 8230

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NELSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
651 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ030-031-035-136-236-422-522-042330-
Eastern Alachua FL-Southeastern Columbia FL-Western Alachua FL-
Union FL-Southwestern Columbia FL-Bradford FL-Gilchrist FL-
651 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN GILCHRIST...CENTRAL
BRADFORD...NORTHERN ALACHUA...WESTERN UNION AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orange Heights, or near Melrose, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Butler, Worthington Spring, Alachua, High Springs, Fort White,
Worthington Springs, Palestine Community, Groves, Providence, and
Upland Pines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for northern
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 8206 2967 8215 2989 8280 3013 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 140DEG 22KT 2973 8215

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NELSON

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