Tornado Warning 23, NWS Jackson, MS

111 
WWUS54 KJAN 272113
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
313 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

MSC067-272123-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-241227T2130Z/
Jones MS-
313 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8897 3167 8901 3170 8894 3161 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 230DEG 17KT 3170 8890 

$$

AJ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1252 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Mid morning surface analysis had a stalled boundary nearly along
the Natchez Trace. Northwest of the boundary surface dew points
were running in the 50s while southeast of the stalled boundary
dew points were in the low to mid 60s. Local radars had storms
mainly over east Mississippi. This activity was not currently
severe but a few storms may become severe across southern Forest
county during the next hour or two. This afternoon hi-res models
do suggest redevelopment of more vigorous convection and isolated
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to the size
of quarters will be possible. In addition a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out. Otherwise, latest satellite imagery showed a large
break in the clouds over our western zones that should allow
temperatures to recover and the whole CWA should top out warmer
than normal this afternoon. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Through tonight: A line of showers with isolated embedded storms
ahead of a stalling cold front continues to push eastward across
the area this morning, now extending from Greenwood to Yazoo City
to Port Gibson. Intensity along the line has been on the decrease
overnight due to a lack of instability and decreasing low level
forcing. However, low level wind shear has been strong, with a 60+
kt low level jet lifting across the region early this morning.
This has resulted in wind gusts up to 35-45 mph at times
overnight, especially over the northwestern half of the area. With
showers beginning to outrun the front and the low level jet
pulling away, convection should continue to become less organized
as it continues eastward this morning. As activity moves into east
MS early this afternoon, instability will begin to recover, but
by this time, forcing will be increasingly nebulous. And with
convection beginning to move out of the area, it will be a narrow
wind of opportunity for substantial restrengthening. However, given
sufficiently strong deep layer shear, we can't rule out a strong
storm in southeast MS, but confidence in this threat is low.
Meanwhile, areas farther west may actually see some clearing by
this afternoon. For tonight, with increasing southerly warm
advection as the front retreats northwestward, low stratus will
build back in overnight, and some of it may build down and become
fog. There may also be patchy showers or drizzle. But overall,
most areas will remain dry. /DL/

Saturday through late next week....

Saturday is our main concern in the longer term, when the peak of
series of shortwaves is expected. An upper trough will push
across the area Saturday into Saturday night and will support a
surface low and attendant cold front over the southern plains into
the Ozarks. The corresponding mass low level response is progged
to be more substantial than the Thursday night/Friday morning
system, as is evidenced by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints.
The initial response as the warm front lifts northward is likely
to trigger storms in the early afternoon and does introduce some
uncertainty regarding the northern extent of the warm sector.
Early CAM indications seem split on whether or not the warm sector
gets suppressed to the south, or if its allowed to push further
north. Given this uncertainty, areas along and south of I-20 have
the greatest confidence at this time. Considering this, expect
adjustments in the outlooked area over the next couple of days as
things get fine tuned.

Despite these uncertainties, there still exists a solid threat
for severe storms. The aforementioned warm sector will be
overspread by 40-50kts of deep layer shear. This will support
organized storms capable of all hazards, though the primary hazard
appears to be damaging wind gusts at this time. Tornado threat is
likely to increase Saturday evening with the ramp up of the low
level jet. Areas further east will see a longer window for the
tornado threat as surface winds become veered ahead of the cold
front. The final line of storms will push through with the cold
front and looks to clear the area by early Sunday morning, ending
the severe threat. An enhanced (3 out of 5) risk has been
highlighted across much of the area, but as mentioned before, I
would expect adjustments over the next couple of days.

In addition to the severe risk, there is a risk for heavy to
cause some localized flash flooding, especially considering
previous rainfall from Thursday and Friday. Any storms that do
train over a certain area could produce localized flooding.
Considering this, a limited risk has been highlighted, but should
be mainly west of I-55.

In the wake, a dry airmass settles over the region. This is short
lived however, as another trough ejection will increase rain
chances once again Tuesday. That said, instability appears far
weaker, especially with the preceding dry airmass, so convective
rain looks fairly limited. Beyond this point, we will see a return
of cooler temperatures for later next week. There are still some
timing differences though, with the Euro getting the colder air in
much quicker than the GFS. Either way, freezing temps should make
a return towards the back end of the period. The coldest air once
again looks to be deflected to the east of our area, so
temperatures look to drop mainly into the upper 20s and low 30s.
/SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA wl remain psbl this aftn over east MS.
Elsewhere VFR conds in the west wl spread into cntrl MS. VFR conds
wl prevail this evening before deteriorating conds are expected
after 06Z. Cigs and vsbys are expected to lower to IFR/LIFR by
10Z. IFR/LIFR conds wl be slow to improve Sat morning. Scattered
-SHRA will begin moving into HEZ and spreading north by 17Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  58  73  55 /  30  10  80  80
Meridian      71  59  72  56 /  90  20  80  90
Vicksburg     73  55  72  53 /  10  10  90  70
Hattiesburg   76  62  76  58 /  70  20  80  80
Natchez       73  59  73  53 /   0  10  90  80
Greenville    65  53  67  52 /  10   0  80  70
Greenwood     71  54  71  53 /  10   0  80  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/SAS20/22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
120 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

MSZ046-051-052-057-272015-
Kemper MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-
120 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JASPER...EASTERN
NEWTON...SOUTHERN KEMPER AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM
CST...

At 119 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hickory, or near Newton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Meehan and Chunky around 125 PM CST.
  Collinsville, Meridian, Duffee, Suqualena, and Nellieburg around
  130 PM CST.
  Marion around 145 PM CST.
  Daleville and Meridian Station around 150 PM CST.
  Lauderdale around 200 PM CST.
  Tamola around 205 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8840 3215 8905 3214 8917 3222 8919
      3258 8908 3258 8892 3269 8891 3270 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 243DEG 36KT 3233 8904

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

MSZ066-272115-
Jones MS-
239 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL JONES COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CST...

At 238 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tuckers Crossing, or near Ellisville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tuckers Crossing and Mill Creek around 245 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 8913 3161 8918 3176 8894 3161 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 230DEG 17KT 3160 8910

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJ