Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
802 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The anticipated squall line is blowing into far northwestern
portions of our forecast area at the present time - moving into
northeast Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas, and northwestern
portions of Mississippi. Westerly deep-layer wind shear and the
availability of moist unstable air ahead of this line of storms
should see it continue south and east over the next few hours. The
greatest instability is located along the southern flank of the
system, and it's anticipated that the portions moving south or
southeast will have the greatest damaging wind threat. Some hail
has been observed with isolated storms that popped up ahead of the
line, but generally the wind and heavy rain will be the main
concerns into this evening. Isolated showers and storms continue
elsewhere in the forecast area, but activity remains mostly below
severe thresholds and is diminishing in coverage. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through Tuesday: The primary focus this evening will be on an MCS
approaching from the northwest. Extrapolation brings this system
through western portions of the area this evening, but it's still
a bit questionable how a less unstable environment over southern
AR/northern LA might affect the integrity of the system. Assuming
the system maintains its intensity, we are keeping the threat for
severe weather going for the western half of the area, with the
primary concern being for damaging wind gusts. Thereafter, it is
likely the system will dissipate quickly should it reach eastern
MS.

Going into Tuesday, we will be monitoring for the next potential
MCS as active westerlies remain over the region. Much of the
guidance shows such a system may be more likely earlier in the
day, and as has been the case, damaging wind gusts will continue
to be the primary concern.  /EC/

Tuesday night through Sunday night: the extended forecast remains
on track as an unsettled weather pattern continues through the
mid-week with shortwave disturbances and an approaching frontal
boundary moving through the area. Post frontal passage will bring
a brief drying period Friday through Sunday, but then rain
chances will return by Sunday afternoon through the end of the
period as guidance shows the aforementioned frontal boundary
lifting northward from the Gulf coast. Seasonable temperatures
are expected throughout the extended period with highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue Tuesday evening as
upper-level westerly/northwesterly flow pushes shortwave
disturbances from the central Plains through the region. With a
moist airmass, decent instability parameters, and bulk shear in
place, some organized convection will be possible but severe weather
is uncertain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along/north of HWY 82 and eastern MS before spreading areawide
Wednesday.

A low pressure center near Lake Superior is expected to progress
towards the Atlantic Northeast, pushing an associated cold front
towards the southeast region Thursday. As a result,
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. We will continue to
monitor any chances for severe weather with this system. Post
frontal passage is expected to bring quiet and slightly lower
dewpoints to the area to begin the weekend as a surface ridge
shift eastward. The aforementioned frontal system is expected to
stall near the Gulf coast and lift northward, resulting in rain
chances returning on Sunday afternoon and remaining until the end
of the period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Main risk for aviation during the TAF period will be TSRA and the
potential for variable conditions near any storms. A line of
storms moving southeast across the forecast area through at least
08Z Tuesday could bring severe wind gusts, variable ceilings, and
reduced visibility with heavy rainfall. Some threat for low
stratus and MVFR ceilings will build in as rainfall threat
diminishes, and then scattered SHRA or TSRA will be possible again
after 18Z Tuesday. Confidence in timing or location for any storms
during that time frame were too low to mention in the TAFs at this
time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  89  73  89 /  50  40  20  50
Meridian      69  89  71  91 /  40  60  30  40
Vicksburg     72  89  73  89 /  70  40  20  50
Hattiesburg   72  91  73  92 /  50  40  20  30
Natchez       72  89  73  89 /  40  40  20  40
Greenville    72  88  73  87 /  80  40  20  60
Greenwood     71  88  73  87 /  70  50  30  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/SW/NF

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