River Flood Warning 7, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
559 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Today through tonight: In the near term, flash flooding, severe
weather, and dense fog, are the primary concerns for weather
impacts.

Dense fog has developed early this morning in primarily locations
not receiving as much rainfall (along the Hwy 82 corridor and
over eastern/se MS) and have issued a dense fog advisory along
with an elevated threat for dense fog in the graphics. Have also
messaged for a limited dense fog threat over central portions of
the area where rain is more prevalent, but fog is still managing
to develop.

Concerning flash flood potential: a significant shortwave trough
is approaching from the west early this morning, and a large
convective complex associated with this will move across the
forecast area today, and mainly in the morning to early afternoon.
Additional rainfall will not be as much as yesterday, but flash
flood guidance is also a lot lower given the saturated soils, so
will continue to message for the potential of significant flash
flooding over southwest/south central MS where up to 10 inches of
rain has fallen the past ~36 hrs, and will also maintain the flash
flood watch.

Concerning severe weather potential: with significant deep layer
shear and some destabilization today in the warm sector ahead of
the approacHing organized convection, there will be a threat for
a few severe storms with damaging wind gusts over the southeast
half of the area. Marginal low level shear values and weak low
boundary layer destabilzation are not very supportive of any
tornado potential, so will continue to primarily highlight the
damaging wind gusts as the main severe weather threat, and focus
on the morning to early afternoon for timing based on latest
obs/guidance trends. /EC/

Friday through Wednesday night: The frontal boundary will extend
over southeast Mississippi on Friday with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms. The bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will
diminish Friday afternoon, but this will be short lived as another
stronger system will approach the area friday evening. A surface low
will develop over south Louisiana along with widespread showers and
storms. The surface low will move across southeast Mississippi
overnight along with widespread showers/storms across the entire
area. The storms will begin to end from west to east through the
morning hours, as as a frontal boundary moves across the area into
Alabama. The main risk through this period will be heavy rainfall,
as the best instability/shear will be southeast of the area. An
additional 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible during this
period. Showers will continue to be possible through Saturday
afternoon as the upper trough swings across the area.

Drier/cooler air will build in behind the system Saturday night into
Sunday, with highs on Sunday in the low to mid 50s. Surface high
pressure ridging will strengthen across the region Sunday night into
Monday, with lows falling into the 30s. Surface high pressure will
continue to prevail across the area on Monday, with highs in the
50s.

The upper trough will continue over the region Monday night through
Tuesday night, with weak short waves moving along the upper trough.
Expect mostly clear skies through this period with highs on Tuesday
around 60 and overnight lows in the 30s. Upper and surface ridging
will build over the area Tuesday night and continue through
Wednesday night. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Widespread IFR/LIFR category ceilings/vsbys will continue through
this morning due to low stratus/fog/rain. The greater threat for
TSRA and perhaps some +TSRA should shift from around mid morning
west to early afternoon eastern sites. With the system exiting
quickly this afternoon, TS potential will end, but widespread
stratus/fog will continue as we go through tonight. Fog and
widespread LIFR appear they will be a significant concern once
again Friday morning and this will likely need to be reflected in
the TAFs. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  54  68  59 / 100  30  40  90
Meridian      72  57  68  58 / 100  50  70  80
Vicksburg     69  51  68  57 / 100  20  30  90
Hattiesburg   73  59  71  60 /  90  60  80  80
Natchez       69  53  69  59 / 100  30  40  90
Greenville    66  48  63  52 / 100   0  20  80
Greenwood     67  51  66  55 / 100  10  20  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until noon CST today for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
     041.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>034-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-064>066-072>074.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ026>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch until noon CST today for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ007.

AR...Flood Watch until noon CST today for ARZ074-075.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

EC/15/EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
759 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ047-053-059>061-251430-
Tensas LA-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-Warren MS-
Franklin MS-Claiborne MS-
759 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TENSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON
AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...
CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 AM CST...

At 758 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cooter Point to Stanton to 8 miles west of
Gloster. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Fayette, Roxie, Church Hill, Garden City, Helena, Hamburg,
  Stampley, and Mcnair around 805 AM CST.
  St. Joseph, Alcorn State, Lake Bruin, and Kirby around 810 AM CST.
  Newellton, Lorman, and Red Lick around 815 AM CST.
  Meadville around 820 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9115 3135 9121 3137 9123 3157 9125
      3171 9140 3175 9138 3175 9144 3191 9160
      3193 9160 3238 9122 3198 9080 3142 9074
      3135 9084 3135 9098 3134 9099 3135 9102
      3134 9103 3134 9107 3133 9107 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1358Z 222DEG 42KT 3190 9152 3161 9121 3120 9116

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SAS

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