Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Jackson, MS

330 
WGUS74 KJAN 121358
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
858 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

MSC065-077-127-121408-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-240912T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson Davis MS-Lawrence MS-Simpson MS-
858 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
SIMPSON, NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS AND NORTHERN LAWRENCE 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for portions of 
central, east central, north central, northeast, northwest, and west 
central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 9025 3175 9012 3177 9013 3178 9011
      3180 9015 3183 9013 3184 9015 3186 9013
      3201 9023 3201 9022 3202 9021 3202 9024
      3205 9023 3205 8966 3178 8965 3177 8976
      3161 8976 3160 8973 3158 8975 3158 9024

$$

DC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
317 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Today and Tonight: Local radars showed the center of circulation
around Tropical Storm Francine moving close to the south central
Mississippi state line. Francine will continue moving to the north
northeast this morning before shifting more to the north this
afternoon and continue to weaken in the process. Francine will
essentially bisect our CWA today and bring a wind threat, flooding
rain threat and a tornado threat. Wind gusts of 40-55mph will remain
possible the next several hours over our southeast zones but lighter
wind gusts of 30-45mph will remain possible today over the remainder
of our CWA. There exists a low tornado threat over our southeast and
east Mississippi zones this morning. The heaviest rainfall is
expected to fall along and east of the track of Francine. Storm
totals of 4-6 inches remain possible through this morning generally
along and east of Interstate 55 with storm totals of 2-4inches in
the area between I-55 and the Mississippi river. Rainfall intensity
will lower from the south this morning as Francine moves north.
Drier air as seen on early morning satellite imagery wrapping into
Francine is expected to help this process. By this evening
conditions are expected to have improved considerably over our CWA
with the threats from Francine having ended. The considerable cloud
cover and rainfall today will help hold temperatures well below
normal only topping out in the 70s. There will still be plenty of
cloud cover tonight in our north but temperatures will bottom out
cooler than normal in the low to mid 60s. /22/

Friday through next Wednesday...The surface remnants of Francine
will reside over the Mid-South region Friday, and meander about
there into Saturday while steadily dissipating.  Meanwhile aloft,
the closed low associated with Francine will follow suit into the
first half of the weekend, before drifting east into the Tennessee
Valley on Sunday.  As we move into the new work week, a longwave
troughing pattern will set up across nearly the entire Southeast
United States through at least mid-week.

Some lingering light rain will remain possible across mainly north
central and northeast Mississippi through late Friday afternoon.
This activity will eventually come to an end, with clouds gradually
lifting out of the area Friday evening.  Overall, the majority of
the forecast area will remain dry over the weekend into next week.
However, the aforementioned troughing pattern will reside across
much of the Deep South Saturday through Monday.  This, coupled with
daytime heating in the continued moist airmass over the region,
could yield some isolated to scattered convection each afternoon
across mainly eastern portions of the area Saturday through Monday.
Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances will become more isolated and
confined to far eastern parts of the area as ridging aloft begins
building into the forecast area from the west.

As far as temperatures are concerned, muggy conditions will again
persist across the CWA through out the forecast period.  Highs on
Friday will range from the mid 70s north to middle 80s south. Then
highs each afternoon Saturday through Tuesday will generally reside
in the middle to upper 80s, with some lower 90s expected on
Wednesday. Lows each night will fall into the 60s. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Flying conditions wl continue to deteriorate from the south
tonight as Tropical Storm Francine moves into the area from the
south and continues moving north through the area today. IFR cigs
along with RA and gusty winds to 25kts were already being
observed north to the cntrl MS TAF sites while MVFR cigs and -RA
were being observed in the north. With the latest track shifted
east, wind shear to 55kts wl develop over the eastern TAF sites
tonight. Widespread IFR conditions, gusty winds and RA will
prevail into the aftn but begin to improve from the south by 00Z
as drier air moves into the area and the center of Francine shifts
farther north of the area. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  65  82  65 /  90  20  10   0
Meridian      79  66  83  64 / 100  20  30  10
Vicksburg     74  63  83  64 /  90  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   83  68  86  67 /  50  10  10   0
Natchez       77  62  84  65 /  50   0   0   0
Greenville    70  63  78  63 / 100  30  10  10
Greenwood     72  64  76  64 / 100  40  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>053-
     056>060.

     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ029>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>066-072>074.

     Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ054-055.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ061>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

22/19/22