Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Tonight and Saturday:

Persistent showers and isolated thunderstorm will continue through
tonight and Saturday. The trough axis is expected to remain off to
the west of the ArkLaMiss, keeping rainfall/rain chances in the area
with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Patchy fog may be possible
overnight and early morning hours.

For Saturday, the trough axis will gradually push towards the
northwest; however southwestern flow will continue to push gulf
moisture into the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances
will remain across the area. Although rainfall chances will
continue, flash flooding risk will decrease throughout the day.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees. /SW/

Tomorrow night through late next week (Saturday night-next
Thursday)...

Late weekend (Sunday): The previous longwave pattern that has
plagued the area for the last week will finally be losing the grip
across the region. The longstanding Rex block pattern will finally
break down, with the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic
finally shifting westward & ridge axis across the northeast states
breaking down. The shortwave trough to our west will be migrating
around the periphery of the ridge across the northern Gulf Coast.
This will bring a gradual decrease into the following week from more
scattered to numerous showers & storms. With high PWs & light flow,
some locally heavy downpours can't be ruled out into Sunday. Highs
will begin to moderate into late weekend, with some patchy fog
possible in the morning due to lingering high boundary layer
moisture. Highs will be still remain less seasonable, in the upper
80s northwest of the Natchez Trace to low 90s to the southeast.

Next week: As the pattern finally breaks down, the ridge over the
west will build to the southeast. This will gradually amplify into
late week, nearly 595-597DM across the ArkLaTex. With drier air
filtering in from the northwest, rain & storm chances will become
more diurnal & shift southeast through the week, mainly becoming
confined southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor by mid-late week.
Highs will begin to heat up into the low-mid 90s by late week.
Combined with increasing low-level flow & sufficient recent rains,
this will aid in low-level moisture being elevated into late week.
Heat indices & heat stress will increase, with graphics being needed
as confidence narrows down. It could begin as late weekend but
likely into mid-late week after Tuesday, where heat related HWO
graphics & heat headlines will likely be needed. Holding off now but
will likely be needed in future forecast packages. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Scattered -RA/RA along with possible afternoon/early evening VCTS is
expected to prevail across TAF sites. Best chances for VCTS are near
HWY 49/westward and I-20/southward around 20Z Friday. Patchy fog
will be possible after 04Z Saturday, resulting in possible
MVFR/IFR flight categories towards the end of the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  89  74  90 /  60  80  30  70
Meridian      72  91  73  92 /  50  80  30  80
Vicksburg     71  87  73  87 /  60  70  30  70
Hattiesburg   73  90  74  92 /  40  90  10  80
Natchez       71  87  73  88 /  60  70  20  70
Greenville    71  86  72  87 /  60  70  50  60
Greenwood     71  88  73  87 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

SW/DC/SW