Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
651 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Today and Tonight: Additional heavy rainfall and potential for
severe storms is expected through the period and mainly over the
western half of the CWA. Local radars were already lit up early this
morning with convection along and north of Highway 84. No severe
storms are expected until this evening and so far the heavy rainfall
has not led to any flash flooding in our CWA but early morning
satellite imagery showed more vigorous convection to our west that
is progged to spread into our western zones later this morning.

The closed low noted spinning over southern Arizona will track east
to the Texas Big Bend region by mid afternoon and then track
northeast to the Red River valley by sunrise Wednesday morning.
Several disturbances rounding the base of the closed low, including
the left front quad of a southern branch jet streak will move across
our area to enhance convection today and tonight. Models suggest an
intial round of very heavy rain will develop this morning across our
delta region and spread east, generally north of Interstate 20. This
intial activity is expected to lead to weaker convection and lower
rain chances this afternoon. By this evening though, daytime heating
of our moist airmass combined with an upper level disturbance is
expected to have redeveloped vigorous convection to our southwest
that will move to the northeast across our western zones. Severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts, quarter to golf ball size
hail and tornadoes will be possible in addition to rainfall totals
of three to five inches of rain across the northwest half of our CWA
by midnight. The severe storm and heavy rain potential should end by
midnight and another lull in the activity is anticipated but there
is the chance that an mcs may be faster than model consensus
suggests and be nearing our southwest most zones prior to sunrise
Wednesday. /22/

Wednesday through Monday night...Wednesday will be a stormy day
across the ArkLaMs, as the main upper low/trough deepens over North
Texas/Oklahoma along with a surface low over Arkansas. The upper low
will eject out of Oklahoma and move into Missouri Wednesday through
Wednesday night. This current track of the upper low is a more
favorable track for severe weather across our area. The surface low
will track across Arkansas into Kentucky during this same time
frame. Storms will be ongoing to our west, along a pre-frontal
trough Wednesday morning and move across our area through the
afternoon into the evening hours. Strong deep layer shear along with
MU capes of 1000-1500 j/kg and mid level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km
will be present on Wednesday. SPC has already issued an enhanced risk
for most of the area and a moderate risk for areas along and south
of the I-20 corridor.  All modes of severe are possible including
damaging wind gusts, large hail and strong tornadoes. The current
timing looks like it will be from late Wednesday morning into late
Wednesday evening before the front shifts east into Alabama. Heavy
rainfall will continue to be a risk on Wednesday also, with total
additional rainfall accumulations ranging from around 6-7 inches
across the Delta to around 2-4 inches in the Pine Belt region
through Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall potential is already
being advertised in our graphics and social media.

The bulk of the thunderstorms activity will shift east of the area
late Wednesday evening, but showers will continue to be possible
into Thursday as the upper trough moves across the area. Surface
high pressure will finally build in Thursday night into Friday and
continue through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will climb to around
80 degrees and into the low 80s on Sunday. Upper and surface ridging
will prevail on Monday, with highs in the low to mid 80s./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Numerous TSRA were noted on regional radar to the west that will
move east along and north of Interstate 20 this morning. This
bring lower flight restrictions. IFR/MVFR cigs in the south will
prevail through 16Z. After 16Z VFR cigs are expected but TSRA
activity wl be psbl areawide this aftn and evng. MVFR cigs wl
redevelop after 06Z and prevail through the end of the TAF period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  66  76  55 /  60  50 100  60
Meridian      75  63  76  56 /  40  20 100  80
Vicksburg     78  65  76  55 /  80  70 100  50
Hattiesburg   80  66  77  60 /  20  10 100  50
Natchez       79  65  77  55 /  50  50 100  20
Greenville    72  66  73  55 /  90  90 100  60
Greenwood     72  65  73  55 /  90  80 100  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MSZ018-019-025>045-
     047>050-053-054-059-060.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

22/15/22