Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
456 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Through tonight:

All continues to be on track concerning the near term severe
weather event as a linear convective system evolves over northeast
Louisiana and southeast Arkansas ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. The warm sector environment in this area is
characterized by extreme wind shear with effective SRH of 500-700
m2/s2, modest instability with ~500 to 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE, and
an influx of mid/upper 60s sfc dewpoints. Expect the strongest
convergence zone and this associated environment to shift east
through tonight across central/eastern MS, and timing in our
graphic has been updated to reflect a slightly slower trend in the
CAM guidance. An enhanced risk for mesovortices producing damaging
wind gusts/tornadoes continues to be the primary concern in the
messaging, and the extreme shear will promote the potential for a
few strong tornadoes as well. In addition, we are also maintaining
the wind advisory through the evening along with a hazard graphic
for localized flash flooding. /EC/

Tuesday through Sunday: Following the early week system, a dry and
cool airmass will persist through mid week. The airmass will
modify as a ridge builds over the central CONUS late this week
into the weekend, but we should maintain rain-free weather. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Strong southerly flow will bring reduced ceilings, and will fuel a
squall line that will track across the area from west to east late
this afternoon through the evening and into the overnight. Expect
strong gradient winds, the potential for +TSRA, and MVFR category
ceilings to be the primary concerns this forecast period until
the squall line passes. VFR conditions will return from west to
east late tonight and Tuesday morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  72  45  66 / 100  10   0   0
Meridian      57  77  47  69 / 100  40   0   0
Vicksburg     53  69  43  64 / 100   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   59  79  49  73 /  90  30   0   0
Natchez       54  71  45  66 /  90   0   0   0
Greenville    53  65  42  61 / 100   0   0   0
Greenwood     55  68  42  64 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
257 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-034-035-252100-
Chicot AR-Washington MS-Humphreys MS-Sunflower MS-Bolivar MS-
257 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHICOT...
SUNFLOWER...WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BOLIVAR COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hollandale, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Arcola, Darlove, and Estill around 300 PM CDT.
  Tribbett around 305 PM CDT.
  Indianola, Inverness, and Isola around 310 PM CDT.
  Holly Ridge around 315 PM CDT.
  Moorhead around 320 PM CDT.
  Sunflower around 325 PM CDT.
  Blaine around 330 PM CDT.
  Doddsville around 340 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 9045 3342 9045 3310 9068 3310 9091
      3302 9092 3316 9122 3380 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 220DEG 42KT 3318 9084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB