Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Relief from the heat arrives later tonight through Monday, but
  briefly returns on Tuesday when afternoon heat indices may
  once again be near 100 degrees.

* Showers and scattered storms expected to move in tonight with
  some potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 mph late
  evening into early overnight hours, best chances in nw IN and
  sw MI.

* There are chances for thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday,
  though confidence regarding timing and intensity is low at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No changes in thinking from the previous forecast. Shortwave and
associated deepening sfc low tracking east through the northern
Great Lakes will drag a convective outflow and synoptic cold front
southeast through the area tonight into Sunday. This will bring
rain/storm chances and at least a brief reprieve from the heat.

Dry, hot and somewhat breezy conditions will persist this afternoon
into most of the evening given a capped/dry airmass with 700 mb
temps near 10-11C. Attention late this evening into early Sunday
turns to a line or cluster of deep convection organizing over
eastern IA, southern WI and northern IL during the late aftn hours.
Expectations are for this activity to undergo a general weakening
trend with southeast progression as it outruns more favorable
flow/forcing into much less downstream instability. With that said,
if a more organized upstream convective segment is realized, the
potential for isolated severe wind gusts would exist for areas
mainly northwest of US 24 in the 03-07z window. Non-severe gusts in
the 30-50 mph range appear more likely however with what should
become an outflow dominant convective line. Opted to hold with
likely to categorical PoPs otherwise along the pre-frontal feature
early Sunday given ample pooled moisture.

The main cold front then follows through Sunday morning into early
Sunday afternoon with additional non-zero chances for scattered
showers/storms. A turned over airmass and weakened frontal
convergence behind the early AM composite outflow limits
chances/coverage however. Drier and cooler air (seasonable) does
settle in Sunday afternoon, and more into Monday when sfc high
pressure briefly builds in with pleasant wx.

Return flow quickly ramps back up in response to the next round of
Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes height falls. This will allow
a frontal system, first as a warm front and strong low-mid level
theta-e advection late Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a cold
frontal passage Tuesday night or Wednesday to potentially impact the
local area. This type of evolution points to several MCS's during
this time which will no doubt modulate the positioning/timing of
these frontal features and degree of heating/destabilization.
Confidence in temps and shower/storm chances remain very low as a
result at this forecast range. Higher confidence however in
seasonable temps and dry conditions to follow for the second half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Line of convection will arrive at KSBN in roughly an hour with
brief MVFR conditions and wind gusts around 30 kts likely. Still
expect arrival in KFWA around 08-09Z with lower coverage of
lightning. MVFR ceilings also still appear likely behind the
line. Models suggest IFR possible but there is little support
for that in upstream obs and will continue to hold with fuel-
alternate MVFR for now. Return to VFR anticipated by the
afternoon with clearing skies and winds relaxing by Sunday
evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT early this morning
     through this afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 6 PM EDT
     this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
818 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

MIZ177-277-240030-
Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
818 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to move into the
area late this evening into the early overnight. These storms may
bring wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph with isolated wind gusts up to 60
mph possible from northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Heat indices from the mid 90s to around 100 are possible on Tuesday.

There are additional chances of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-240030-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
Van Wert-Allen OH-
818 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 /718 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to move into the
area late this evening into the early overnight. These storms may
bring wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph with isolated wind gusts up to 60
mph possible from northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat indices from the mid 90s to around 100 are possible on Tuesday.

There are additional chances of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-240030-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
818 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight. A few storms may
produce wind gusts to 50 knots from late evening into the early
overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

There are additional chances of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1201 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

MIZ078-277-230445-
Cass MI-Southern Berrien MI-
1201 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CASS AND EAST CENTRAL
BERRIEN COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM EDT...

At 1201 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bangor to Hartford to Fair Plain. Movement
was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dowagiac, Fair Plain, Bridgman, Berrien Springs, Marcellus,
Stevensville, Sodus, Penn, Baroda, Shoreham, Eau Claire, Dewey Lake,
La Grange, Indian Lake, Sandy Beach, Wakelee, and Magician Lake.

This includes Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 15 and
28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4206 8576 4193 8576 4192 8660 4207 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 263DEG 54KT 4231 8605 4220 8619 4207 8648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

INZ103-104-203-204-MIZ078-277-230615-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Western St. Joseph IN-Northern La Porte IN-
Southern La Porte IN-Cass MI-Southern Berrien MI-
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ST. JOSEPH...LA PORTE...
SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM
EDT/115 AM CDT/...

At 130 AM EDT/1230 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Three Oaks, or 9 miles north of La Porte, moving
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, La Porte, Niles, Westville, Buchanan,
Gulivoire Park, Granger, Osceola, Walkerton, North Liberty, New
Buffalo, New Carlisle, Three Oaks, Kingsford Heights, Edwardsburg,
Lakeville, Roseland, Bertrand, and Dayton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 41 and 87.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana near mile marker 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 8693 4182 8672 4185 8668 4185 8605
      4148 8606 4148 8647 4146 8647 4145 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0530Z 269DEG 48KT 4174 8667

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

INZ005-014-104-116-230645-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Marshall IN-Northern Kosciusko IN-Elkhart IN-
207 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ELKHART...EASTERN ST. JOSEPH...
NORTHERN KOSCIUSKO AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM
EDT...

At 207 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Granger to near Mishawaka to 6 miles
southwest of Lakeville. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Elkhart, Mishawaka, Goshen, Plymouth, Nappanee, Bremen,
Syracuse, Simonton Lake, Granger, Dunlap, Gulivoire Park, Middlebury,
Osceola, Wakarusa, Bristol, Milford, Millersburg, Lakeville, and New
Paris.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 81 and
108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 8566 4134 8565 4131 8644 4164 8622
      4176 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 306DEG 39KT 4174 8609 4161 8616 4145 8633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brown