Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
205 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
  early this evening. A few storms in northeast Indiana, south-
  central Michigan and northwest Ohio could become severe.

* Seasonable temperatures and periodic chances for showers late
  this week through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and storms remain the main focus this afternoon
into early this evening. As of 18z, there is a ~1008 sfc low just
now entering nw IN with a warm front extending east into nrn IN and
nw OH. These sfc features will continue to lift north toward the MI
border this afternoon in advance an incoming shortwave impulse.
Showers/storms will accompany this system given the ongoing ample
moisture transport within broad isentropic ascent preceding the
shortwave. The main area of interest is still into mainly
eastern portions of the FA where a muddled warm sector is
building in with MLCAPE nearing 1000 j/g under 25-30 knots of
effective bulk shear. SPC Marginal Risk appears reasonable in
this environment with low LCL heights hinting at the low chance
for an isolated weak tornado/landspout, with isolated wind
damage the primary threat. The overall severe threat is limited
by meager lapse rates and lacking heating thanks to cloud cover.

A few showers may linger within the lingering shear axis
tonight, mainly near Lake MI due to some minor lake enhancement.
Kept fog and stratus in the grids otherwise overnight into
early tomorrow given lingering moist low levels and light winds.
The shear axis and/or trailing inverted trough does slowly
slide east through the area on Wednesday. The result is a non-
zero chance for a few showers/drizzle, though the strip away of
moisture in the mid levels and weak forcing in between upper
level systems may preclude isolated light showers from
developing.

Thursday is likely a dry and seasonable day before daily rain
shower chances return Friday through early next week. Tropical
cyclone remnants lifting north from the Gulf of Mexico look to
get absorbed into a leftover closed low over the lower-mid MS
Valley later Thursday through Saturday, before opening slowly
northeast toward the Great Lakes region Sunday into early next
week. The best opportunity for rain locally look to be Saturday
and beyond, though confidence regarding track/evolution of these
merging features is low. Temperatures should be pretty close to
seasonal norms otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A mid level trough allows for a surface low to push through the area
today into tonight as an upper low deepens to our southwest. This
setup allows for plenty of low level moisture and times of lift
allowing for rain and drizzle at times, especially at SBN. FWA may
have enough clearing to get into some thunderstorms this evening and
that would reduce flight conditions as a result of briefly heavy
rain. At this point, am not confident enough in adding thunderstorms
to these tafs at FWA so will rely on amendments for that. After
that, cold air advection behind the surface low and light winds may
allow for the formation of some combination stratus and lowered
tonight into Wednesday morning and so will hint at that possibility
in these tafs.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-251815-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 /108 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon. The primary hazards are damaging wind gusts and
weak tornadoes. Confidence in severe weather occurring is medium,
and it is possible that no severe weather occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LMZ043-046-251815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight chance of waterspouts. The probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
351 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

INZ018-027-OHZ015-024-242015-
Adams IN-Allen IN-Van Wert OH-Paulding OH-
351 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN...
NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING AND NORTHWESTERN VAN WERT
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Monroeville, or 8 miles northeast of Decatur, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodburn, Monroeville, Payne, Dixon, Mcgill, Worstville, Tillman,
Edgerton In Allen County, Tipton, Townley, Zulu, and Briceton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 8488 4093 8497 4118 8481 4105 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 219DEG 25KT 4094 8487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

FISHER