River Flood Warning 22, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
647 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Risk for strong to severe storms remains this afternoon, but
confidence is lower on northward extent of the threat.

-Brief period of wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph behind the cold front
later today.

-Chances for a rain/snow mix delayed until Wednesday night into
 Thursday.

-Drying out Thursday night into Sunday before rain chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Area of rain was working east and beginning to weaken as 2 lines of
strong to severe convection further south and west was impacting the
inflow of moisture over the front. Expecting much of the precip to
wrap up by 12Z today.

Focus then shifts to complex and potentially volatile forecast
in the crosshairs this afternoon as the stubborn longwave trough
that has been parked over the southwestern US begins to move
rapidly northeast towards the region. As it does, a deep
northern stream wave will be diving SE, reaching central IL by
6Z Wed. GFS/EC/HRRR/RAP all quickly deepen the sfc low over
central IL around 18Z, then track to SE Lake MI at 00Z with the
various NAM solutions remaining further southeast with the
southern stream energy. Despite this consensus of the NW track
advertised by the other models (in comparison to model trends
the past several days) the influence of the southern stream
energy, combined with ongoing convection that could delay the
deeper moisture arrival into our area until the cold front is
sweeping east lead to lower confidence in the severe threat into
our forecast area (especially the higher end threat). That
being said, still expecting scattered to possibly numerous
showers and scattered storms across the area in the 20-24Z time
frame (quickly sweeping NE). Dynamics are more than sufficient
with 0-6 km shear values in the warm sector easily 70 kts or
more with 0-1 km SRH values along the fronts and proximity of
the triple point 200 to 300 m2/s2. Storms north of the warm
front could exhibit some stronger cores that produce hail as
well. Coordination with SPC has resulted in some minor changes
to the new SWODY1, including trimming the western edge of the
moderate risk (now no longer in our area) as well a trimming of
marginal and slight risks in the NW, all of which reflect the
recent trends. That being said, those in the Enhanced risk area
should still monitor later forecasts as this region stands the
best chance to still see a brief arrival of sfc based convection
and all modes of severe (10% sig tor still clips Allen Co OH).

One other item to address is the current Flood Watch for
southern areas. Luckily the heavier convection has remained
south of the area with average rainfall rates in most of the
area a half inch or less (some pockets of locally higher). While
additional rain will occur this afternoon, suspect the fast
movement and short nature will limit any additional hydro issues
with a good likihood of being able to drop the watch early.
Will re-assess conditions in the coming hours. Several river
forecasts have been updated with a number forecasted to go into
at least minor flood.

The large NW shift in the sfc low evolution has also resulted in
major changes being made to pops and winds tonight into the start of
Wednesday as the main deformation zone sets up well NW of the area
with a period of little/no precip in the wake of the cold front.
The shift in the track has also reduced the potential for gale
force wind gusts over SE Lake Michigan so after coordination
have dropped the Gale Watch and extended the Small Craft
Advisory. CAMs develop scattered showers during the afternoon
hours of Wed in response to very cold 500 mb (-25 to
-30 C) and pockets of limited heating. Low freezing levels could
allow for reports of graupel/small hail and lightning may occur
with the stronger cells. A rain/snow mix is still expected Wed
night into Thursday, but will likely struggle to accumulate.

With all the challenges in the near term, remainder of the forecast
left generally untouched as we luckily end up with a period of dry
conditions and slowly moderating temperatures as upper level ridging
takes place. The next chance for precipitation will come with
another strong upper low that will track from Nevada at 00Z Sat to
somewhere in the central or northern Plains (depending on your model
of choice). This system will be monitored closely for potential
viewing impacts to the Total Solar Eclipse on the 8th, but plenty of
time to sort out details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Convection has developed along the front to the south and was
moving farther south. Thunder was mainly along this boundary
near the Ohio River. At 09Z, a surface low was rather diffuse
over southern Missouri. The low will move northeast along the
front and spread showers and some storms back into the area
later today. The stronger storms should stay south of FWA given
how far the front as already moved south. Not much in the way
of improvement, but winds will eventually become west to
northwest as the low moves east of the terminals.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ013-015-020-
     022>027-032>034.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Thursday for LMZ046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper

Hazardous Weather Outlook...RESENT
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

INZ005>009-012-014-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078>081-177-
277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-030830-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-Whitley-
Allen IN-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 /324 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with the
greatest risk existing southeast of a Marion to Monroeville to
Continental line. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

INZ013-015-020-022>027-032>034-030830-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with the
greatest risk existing southeast of a Marion to Monroeville to
Continental line. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

LMZ043-030830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

LMZ046-030830-
Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON
EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
824 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Flood            Van Wert                40.87N 84.58W
04/02/2024                   Van Wert           OH   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports 24 hour rain
            totals between 2.5 to 3 inches in Van Wert.
            High water across multiple roads and in
            low-lying areas with schools in a 2 hour
            delay due to flooding.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
901 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     Flood            2 SE Wallen             41.14N 85.14W
04/01/2024                   Allen              IN   Broadcast Media

            Delayed report. Per broadcast media, there
            is lots of standing water on southbound I-69
            from the Dupont Rd exit to the Goshen Rd
            exit. Unsure how deep water was.

&&

MJ