Wind Chill Warning 2, NWS Indianapolis, IN

084 
WWUS43 KIND 150828
WSWIND

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>038-043-151630-
/O.CON.KIND.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Vermillion-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, 
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, 
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, 
Zionsville, Tipton, Clinton, and Fairview Park
328 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and west central 
  Indiana.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

INZ039>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-151630-
/O.CON.KIND.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-
Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-
Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Including the cities of Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, 
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, 
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, 
Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, 
Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, 
Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, 
Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, 
Columbus, and Greensburg
328 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, 
  southwest and west central Indiana.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

INZ044-151630-
/O.CON.KIND.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Parke-
Including the cities of Rockville, Montezuma, and Rosedale
328 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Parke County.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ind

303 
WWUS43 KIND 151448
WSWIND

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
948 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>038-043-151700-
/O.CON.KIND.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Vermillion-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, 
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, 
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, 
Zionsville, Tipton, Clinton, and Fairview Park
948 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 25 
  below zero. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and west central 
  Indiana. 

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

INZ039>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-151700-
/O.CON.KIND.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-
Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-
Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Including the cities of Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, 
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, 
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, 
Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, 
Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, 
Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, 
Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, 
Columbus, and Greensburg
948 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as near 25 
  below zero. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, 
  southwest and west central Indiana. 

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

INZ044-151700-
/O.CON.KIND.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Parke-
Including the cities of Rockville, Montezuma, and Rosedale
948 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as near 25 
  below zero. 

* WHERE...Parke County.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

695 
WWUS43 KIND 151706
WSWIND

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1206 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>038-043-151815-
/O.EXP.KIND.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Vermillion-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, 
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, 
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, 
Zionsville, Tipton, Clinton, and Fairview Park
1206 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The wind chill warning has expired. It will still be bitterly
cold, however, with below zero wind chills this afternoon. 

$$

INZ039>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-151815-
/O.EXP.KIND.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-
Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-
Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Including the cities of Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, 
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, 
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, 
Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, 
Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, 
Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, 
Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, 
Columbus, and Greensburg
1206 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The wind chill warning has expired. It will still be bitterly
cold, however, with below zero wind chills this afternoon.

$$

INZ044-151815-
/O.EXP.KIND.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T1700Z/
Parke-
Including the cities of Rockville, Montezuma, and Rosedale
1206 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The wind chill warning has expired. It will still be bitterly
cold, however, with below zero wind chills this afternoon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
607 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

.Key Messages...

- A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect through Noon Monday.

- Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through Tuesday night,
  with sub-zero wind chills.

- Light snow possible late Monday night; total snow accumulations
  up to an inch.

- Snow chances return Thursday into Friday.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

Surface analysis this afternoon is showing Arctic high pressure
from Alberta into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys with a wound up low
over northern Quebec. Meanwhile, fast northwest flow aloft was
overhead with a deep trough over the Great Lakes and all but western
Canada. Meanwhile, Day Snow-Fog RGB visibility product and obs were
indicating increasing AC and cirrus approaching Missouri and
Illinois. Although, there were also a few sites with lingering
stratocu.

Wind chills earlier this morning made it as low as 31 degrees below
zero at a few spots north of I-70. However, the relaxing surface
pressure gradient has resulted in decreasing winds and wind chills
to drop below warning criteria.

Tonight...

Model layered RH progs and Hi-Res soundings support lingering mid
and high clouds tonight with the potential for clearing from
northwest to southeast toward daybreak. The increase in cloud cover
should keep temperatures from not getting quite as cold as they
did last night. That said, look for overnight lows in the negative
single digits over northwestern sections, where the clouds should
clear out. Conversely, with thicker clouds, south central sections
should mostly stay zero degrees or above.

Winds will drop off tonight as Arctic high pressure builds
in with a resultant weakened surface low pressure gradient. Even so,
wind chills should still drop into wind chill advisory
criteria (-15F to -24F) over most locales near and north of
Interstate 70 through Noon, So, plan on extended the  Wind
Chill Advisory through Noon. Meanwhile, an SPS was issued for wind
chills from 3 to`14 degrees below zero south of the wind advisory.

Monday...

After a brutally cold start to the morning and increasing breaks in
the clouds per BUFKIT and layered RH progs, an upper wave will move
into the Missouri Valley as a 130kt jet streak rounds its base.
An increase in moisture and forcing should be enough to produce a
few late day snow showers and or flurries, mainly southwest.
Temperatures will be lucky to make it out of the single digits over
northwestern sections with Arctic high pressure lingering. That
said, weaker surface pressure gradient will lesson the impact of
wind.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

The primary forecast challenge through the long range is continued
cold temperatures and occasional snow chances.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW

The Polar Jet currently resides over the CONUS, and is cyclonically
curved east of the Rockies. A large upper-level low pressure system
spins to our north across eastern Canada. Strongly negative NAO and
AO teleconnections promote a blocking pattern, which should keep the
upper low from moving out. As such, the current jet stream
configuration is expected to persist through the coming week.

Shortwaves embedded in the flow are to pass through at times this
week, with two in particular bringing snowfall chances. One passes
through Monday into Tuesday, and a more potent one passing by
Thursday into Friday. Surface high pressure situated mainly to our
west will limit potential for southerly return flow, so no major
warming trend is likely. A brief period of southwesterly winds ahead
of the Thursday wave is possible, which may increase available
moisture for precipitation.

Some signals exist in the day 8-14 period of a warming trend with
some active weather. A positively trending NAO/AO lends weight to
this scenario.

WEATHER HAZARDS AND IMPACTS

First and foremost, very cold temperatures are to continue this
week. And the prolonged nature of the cold may add stress to those
without the means to endure it. A brief "warm up" is possible
Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of the second shortwave, with highs
climbing into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, another surge of
arctic air is increasingly likely after the system passes by,
regardless of snowfall. Highs dropping back into the teens with
single digit lows, along with wind chills down to -20, are expected.

Regarding snowfall, two opportunities exist. As mentioned above, the
first is associated with wave arriving Monday. Total liquid QPF
appears very light, and only a few hundredths are anticipated.
However, with high snow ratios of near 20:1 up to an inch is
possible where the best forcing sets up. To avoid confusion, this
wave is distinct from the disturbance bringing snow this evening
south of our CWA.

The second opportunity for snow is Thursday into Friday. A large low
pressure currently spinning far out in the Pacific Ocean is the
feature of interest. It should lift northeastward into the Pacific
Northwest and become embedded in the polar jet, diving southeastward
until reaching Indiana. By this point it will be loosely organized,
and deprived of moisture...but still presents the potential for
accumulating snow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles consistently show temperatures in the 10th
percentile or lower compared to climatological norms. GEFS spaghetti
plots show little variation in the mean 500mb heights through much
of the week. Additionally, teleconnections support continued
blocking and troughing through the week. As such, forecast
confidence is high regarding cold temperatures through the period.

Confidence is lower for snowfall, but increasing. Guidance has come
into more of an agreement for the Tuesday wave. Variance in guidance
remains for the Thursday wave, both in the run-to-run in individual
models and from model to model. Still, the majority of guidance
shows this system in some form or another.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

Impacts:

-Brief MVFR cigs through 08Z.

 Discussion:

Generally VFR cigs expected through the early overnight hours, but
brief periods of cigs around 025 are expected. Highest confidence in
these lower cigs will be at LAF.  Outside of that, VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period with westerly winds around 6-10kts
and scattered high clouds.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST Monday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>055-060.

&&

Short Term...MK
Long Term...Eckhoff
Aviation...White

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
106 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>055-060-151000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Sullivan-
106 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated excessive cold risk.

DISCUSSION...

Arctic high pressure over the region will allow for wind chill
values to reach -15 to -24 much of today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A prolonged period of frigid temperatures is expected to continue
through the coming week. Air temperatures will fall to below zero
for parts of the area Monday into Monday night. Wind chills may
approach -20 degrees for parts of the area.

The bitterly cold temperatures will raise concerns for ice jams
along area rivers and streams from late this weekend into next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at:

http://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ind
http://www.weather.gov/ind

INZ056-057-061>065-067>072-151000-
Shelby-Rush-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
106 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated excessive cold risk.

DISCUSSION...

Arctic high pressure over the region will allow for wind chill
values to reach -3 to -14 much of today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A prolonged period of frigid temperatures is expected to continue
through the coming week. Air temperatures will fall to below zero
for parts of the area Monday into Monday night. Wind chills may
approach -20 degrees for parts of the area.

The bitterly cold temperatures will raise concerns for ice jams
along area rivers and streams from late this weekend into next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at:

http://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ind
http://www.weather.gov/ind

WFO IND