Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
309 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Index values near 100 today

- Some thunderstorms could be around late this evening through
Saturday.

- Cooler weather with lower humidity end of the weekend and into
next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Today will be the last hot day for at least a while as a cold front
drops through tonight. The front is draped over Michigan to northern
Illinois as of this afternoon, slowly pushing SE. A few other
mesoscale boundaries have impacted parts of central Indiana today
impacting temperatures and cloud coverage. An undular bore kept
things cooler and more stable across the NW earlier today but that
has since dispersed and temperatures are again warming towards
90. The rest of the forecast area has been allowed to heat up to
the mid 90s under scattered clouds and deep mixing and even
setting a new record high for Indianapolis.

The actual cold front associated with the low pressure system over
Canada will move through late tonight through tomorrow with chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. The rain coverage
looks to dissipate as it tracks across the forecast area tomorrow.
With the front moving through overnight and a shift to northwesterly
winds, tomorrows highs will be much cooler and are expected to max
out in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

After some of the hottest temperatures of the summer, the long term
period will bring much needed relief to Central Indiana with
temperatures closer to normal and much lower humidity.

An area of high pressure dives southeast out of the Canadian
Prairies on Sunday and will be the main weather influence over
Central Indiana's weather through mid to late next week. While the
main frontal passage occurs on Saturday, the cooler, drier air will
be lagging some behind the front resulting in a tight north to south
temperature and humidity gradient across the state. Highs Sunday
will likely reach the mid to upper 80s for Central and South Central
Indiana with lower 80s further north. Sunday and early next week's
temperature forecast may also be dependent on how much rainfall
occurs today and Saturday. If precipitation is lighter than
expected, drier grounds and lower soil moisture may allow for the
surface to heat up faster than what guidance suggests.

Cool and dry air advection aloft increases early next week as high
pressure slowly traverses the Great Lakes region. Highs Monday and
Tuesday will likely reach the upper 70s to low 80s with afternoon
dew point values dropping into the 40s! Like mentioned above, drier
grounds may result in afternoon highs exceeding guidance.

High pressure shifts off to the northeast mid to late next week with
mid and upper level ridging building back over the Ohio Valley and
Great lakes resulting in a warming trend back to at least the mid
80s and slowly rising humidity values. Longer range guidance
indicates a frontal boundary approaching the area by the end of the
week or early next weekend bringing the next chance for rain and
thunderstorms. It is too soon to look at specifics or severe
potential due to model discrepancies so far out. High confidence
exists in a dry week ahead with soil moisture falling each day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Impacts:

- Isolated convection in the late afternoon into the evening.
- More widespread showers and storms overnight
- MVFR possible on Saturday morning

Discussion:

The TAF sites will remain under VFR conditions this afternoon as a
cold front approaches from the west. Some afternoon VFR cumulus will
be expected, but instability appears a bit more limited today and
HRRR shows convection should hold off until the evening hours. This
is due to a boundary is visible on Satellite and Radar over NW
Central Indiana. The boundary progressing south will provide some
stabilization in its wake.

As the cold front approaches this evening we will look for potential
TSRA development over central IL and NW Indiana. Models suggest
propagation across the forecast area during the overnight hours, and
given this, have included a large VCTS window at that time.

In the wake of the front on Saturday morning, some MVFR Cigs will be
possible with rain showers. Forecast soundings show a saturated
column at that time as the slowing front lingers in the area.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
406 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-312015-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
406 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across
South Central Indiana. Brief periods of heavy rain, lightning, gusty
winds, and small hail are possible with any storm.

Additional thunderstorms are expected overnight tonight for all of
Central Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday. An isolated strong storm
is possible across far southern sections of the area then.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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