Frost Advisory 4, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clay County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
320 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated rain possible through midday with below normal highs today

- Frost advisory tonight for west and south central Indiana; Freeze
warning tonight for northeast counties

- Wednesday Night:  Widespread frost and potential freeze

- Dry conditions expected Tuesday night through early next week with
  temperatures warming back up late this week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Scattered rain showers are ongoing as of early this morning as an
upper wave is pivoting around the deeper low to the far NW. This
wave combined with the shallow, low level moisture are expected to
continue the showers into midday. Showers will most likely stay
north of I-70 and track eastward through the morning.

Temperatures again will be below normal with highs in the 50s.
Tonight will see central Indiana's first shot at more widespread
frost and our NE counties will even see some freezing temperatures
tonight. The pickle in tonight's frost/freeze forecast comes with
lake induced clouds due to the long fetch off Lake Michigan down
into the area. Clouds will help to keep warmer temperatures for the
north-central and central portions of the forecast area while mostly
clear skies to the east, south, and west will allow for frost
potential and an area of freezing temps. Confidence on the location
for frost is only moderate as even a minor shift in the winds and
clouds tonight will impact the temps tonight. The next forecast
package may need to adjust the counties slightly in the headlines as
the forecast becomes even clearer. Either way, make sure to protect
sensitive plants across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Quiet weather is expected through the extended period as
strong surface high pressure remains dominant across the region.
Aloft, ridging also remains over the eastern CONUS providing large
scale subsidence. The abnormally cold fall weather arriving today
will persist through midweek with widespread frost and freeze
potential Wednesday night.

Daytime highs on Wednesday are going to be about 10F below normal
for this time of the year as temperatures likely remain in the 50s
due to northwest flow still in place. By Wednesday night, the
aforementioned surface high moves overhead providing nearly calm
winds and clear skies. Efficient radiational cooling will promote
widespread frost formation. Freezing temperatures are also a concern
with most locations likely falling to near or slightly below
32F.

Slightly elevated fire weather conditions are expected through the
period with daily RH minimums falling to near critical levels, but
decreasing winds as the week progresses will limit the overall
threat. Look for dry conditions to continue into early next week due
to surface high pressure remaining near the region. Temperatures
will finally start to moderate late this week after the surface high
shifts slightly eastward allowing for return flow. Expect seasonal
highs by Friday with temperatures reaching the lows 70s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Impacts:

- VCSH at LAF and IND through midday due to isolated to
scattered rain

- Gusts of around 20 kts possible this afternoon

- Low VFR ceilings expected around mid-morning, could briefly drop
to MVFR at LAF and IND

Discussion:

A moderate pressure gradient remains across Central Indiana. This
will continue to result in elevated sustained surface winds to
around 8-12kts and occasional gusty winds tomorrow afternoon.

Another upper wave pivoting around the deep upper low to the far
northeast will push toward and across the TAF sites through
tomorrow. This will result in continued VFR ceilings through much of
the period along with isolated showers at KLAF and KIND. Within
showers, temporary deterioration of Cigs to MVFR will be possible.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...KF

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
419 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-152000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
419 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Potential for areas of frost Tuesday night. Widespread frost is
likely Wednesday night...with some areas potentially dropping to or
below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

AGM