Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Lincoln, IL

769 
WWUS53 KILX 010222
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
922 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

ILC029-010231-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-240401T0315Z/
Coles-
922 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8756 3934 8758 3931 8760 3931 8762
      3930 8760 3928 8761 3925 8759 3925 8757
      3922 8757 3920 8759 3942 8795 3964 8796
      3960 8753 3936 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 293DEG 36KT 3948 8785 

$$

ILC023-045-010315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-240401T0315Z/
Edgar-Clark-
922 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN EDGAR AND NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

At 921 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Kansas, or 10 miles northwest of Marshall, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Marshall around 930 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Lincoln
Trail State Park, Darwin, Clarksville, Sandford, Dennison, and
Oliver.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 136 and 154.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8756 3934 8758 3931 8760 3931 8762
      3930 8760 3928 8761 3925 8759 3925 8757
      3922 8757 3920 8759 3942 8795 3964 8796
      3960 8753 3936 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 293DEG 36KT 3948 8785 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

37

903 
WWUS53 KILX 010241
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
941 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

ILC023-045-010251-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-240401T0315Z/
Edgar-Clark-
941 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN EDGAR AND
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8756 3934 8758 3931 8760 3931 8762
      3930 8760 3928 8761 3925 8759 3925 8757
      3922 8757 3920 8759 3942 8795 3964 8796
      3960 8753 3936 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 293DEG 36KT 3940 8761 

$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
853 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of thunderstorms will pose a threat of severe
  weather and flooding through Tuesday. Large hail is the primary
  concern with most of these storms. The greatest severe threat is
  Monday/Monday night south of I-70 (level 3 of 5 risk).

- Total rainfall exceeding 1" is expected area-wide (70-80%
  chance) through Tuesday, and there is a chance (40-60%) of
  exceeding 2" of rain in areas between the IL River and the I-70
  corridor.

- Conditions turn cooler and breezy by mid-week, with potential
  for below freezing temperatures Tuesday through Thursday
  nights. Rain/snow showers are possible (40-50% chance) on
  Wednesday.

- Wednesday is expected to be the windiest day of the week, with
  northwest winds sustained around 20-25 mph and gusts approaching
  45 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

A long tracked supercell continues to push southeast across portions
of east central Illinois this evening and will likely continue
across the Indiana border by around 10pm. This storm is riding the
warm front and instability gradient southeast within a strongly
sheared environment supporting its continued maintenance. This storm
has a history of large hail with frequent reports of golf ball sized
hail and a few larger reports. Meanwhile, as the low level jet
continues to strengthen to our west, expect an increase in storm
coverage across northern MO/eastern IA with storms tracking across
portions of central Illinois overnight, though the severe threat
does not appear as high with this next batch of elevated storms.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

A dynamic weather system will bring impactful weather to the
region through mid-week. Several rounds of thunderstorms will
pose a threat of severe hazards and flooding through Tuesday, then
conditions turn cooler and breezy with potential for snow and
below freezing low temperatures.

** THROUGH TONIGHT **

In response to a deep trough over the western US, lee cyclogenesis
continues east of the Rockies, where a 998-mb sfc low was
developing and the latest mesoanalysis showed a 2-mb drop in sfc
pressure in the last two hours (as of 2pm/19z). We continue to
monitor a frontal boundary extending well east of this sfc low.
The frontal boundary, evident as a sharp northern edge in the
cumulus field on visible satellite just N of I-70 in MO and near
the US-50 corridor in IL, has been slower to lift than initially
anticipated. Mostly clear skies still allowed temps to climb
warmer than forecast, with 2pm/19z sfc obs into the low 60s as far
north as Galesburg/Pontiac. There is a large dewpoint gradient
across the CWA, with upper 30s dewpoints near I-74 and upper
50s/low 60s south of the front.

Storms have been slower to arrive this afternoon than initially
forecast. Regional radar shows storms (non-severe as of this
writing) progressing east near the IA/MO border area. The latest
RAP-based mesoanalysis shows relatively low MUCAPE values across
the CWA, but these values are expected to increase to 500-1500
J/kg as steeper lapse rates advect into the region this evening.
Precip coverage should increase into the late evening (mainly
north of I-72) as WAA and LLJ forcing become more prevalent. With
the front positioned a bit farther south than anticipated, think
the threat of sfc-based storms capable of all hazards is low, and
that hail will be the main threat with any stronger elevated
storms through 12z Mon.

** MONDAY **

The continued challenge for Monday's forecast is how far south the
multiple rounds of storms will push the warm front. Most guidance
continues to suggest it will be near/south of the I-70 corridor,
but outliers have the front as far north as I-72. A volatile
environment will be present near the warm front and into the warm
sector, with surfaced-based CAPEs forecast to exceed 2000 J/kg and
ample deep layer shear (50+ knots). CAM depictions vary in where
or when storms develop Monday afternoon. Scattered storms north of
the front will continue to pose a hail threat, while any storms
that form near the front during the day Monday would be capable of
all hazards.

Confidence is higher that as we go into Monday night, storms that
form across MO Monday evening grow upscale and trek across the
southern half of the ILX CWA. The wind fields are progged to
strengthen into Monday night, resulting in very strong deep layer
shear over 70 knots. While sfc-based instability fields become
less impressive into Mon night, MUCAPEs are still expected to be
over 1000 J/kg. Despite lackluster surface-based instability, 0-3
km CAPEs of 75-100 J/kg could aid stretching of mesovorticies in
the potential line of storms (i.e., support tornado potential).
However, forecast hodographs show 0-3 km shear vectors (~30 knots)
roughly parallel to the expected orientation of the line of
storms (less conducive for tornadoes). Typically, the QLCS tornado
threat increases when there is 30+ knots of line-normal shear in
the 0-3 km layer. Given the uncertainty around storm
development/placement during the day Monday, would say that Monday
night south of I-70 is the time frame of greatest concern for
severe thunderstorms in our CWA.

Flooding is also a concern given the multiple rounds of convection
and unseasonably high PWAT values (1.25-1.75"). Much of the area
is expected to see at least 1" of rainfall from this system
(70-80% chance per the latest HREF), while a corridor from the IL
River to the I-70 corridor could see over 2" (40-60% chance).
Localized amounts exceeding 3" aren't out of the question, but
will depend on whether or not multiple rounds of convection train
over the same areas or not, and confidence is low in that regard.
At any rate, hydrological issues may arise from these rains,
particularly towards the end of the event (Mon night into Tues).
The 3-hr (6-hr) flash flood guidance is around 2" (2.5").

** MID-WEEK **

On Tues, the main sfc low is expected to track through the region.
There are concerns that severe weather potential could linger
across far eastern IL (east of I-57) into late Tues morning/early
afternoon. A cold front will trail behind the low, and the warm
sector ahead of it will remain unstable/strongly sheared. Whether
or not a severe threat develops in the ILX CWA will depend on the
specific track and timing of the sfc low, though. A slower,
further west track would translate to greater severe potential.

Additional precip is possible on Tues northwest side of the low in
the deformation zone. Previously, there had been a decent signal
for FGEN-driven banded precip in this deformation zone, leading to
some concern that dynamic cooling from the strong ascent would
result in a changeover to snow (similar to Mar 3 2023, but with
less accumulation potential). However, more recent guidance has
backed off on the FGEN signal, and the latest soundings suggest
just rain on Tues.

By late Tues, an upper wave digging from Canada will result in a
deep upper low over the Midwest with the sfc low also deepening as
it lifts towards the upper Great Lakes. This will result in
continued cyclonic flow/cold air advection across central IL. The
pressure gradient will be quite tight, resulting in breezy
northwest winds Tues PM through Thurs. The strongest winds are
expected on Wed. Ensemble members and forecast soundings suggest
sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts approaching 45 mph. With
cold air aloft resulting in steep lapse rates and ascent from the
upper low, showery precip will linger on Wed. This could be in the
form of rain or snow, with the better chance of snow being during
the morning when sfc temps are in the 30s. Freezing temperatures
continue to appear possible Tues-Thurs nights. There is a 30-50%
chance of sub- freezing temps north of I-72 Tues night, then a
60-90% area-wide on Wed and Thurs nights.

Erwin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

A warm front is located over central Illinois early this evening
and is producing scattered showers and storms which will
continue into tonight. There should be a bit of a lull in coverage
late tonight into Monday morning, then additional scattered
storms are expected Monday afternoon and early evening. Meanwhile,
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the next few hours and
will drop to IFR overnight with modest improvement back to MVFR
sometime in the morning.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-011100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening,
diminishing after midnight. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing some hail to near quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night. A few
of the storms will be capable of producing some hail to near quarter
size.

Low temperatures near freezing Thursday and Friday mornings may
cause some damage to early emerging vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 pm and 10 pm this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the east northeast around 40 mph.

ILZ040>057-061>063-011100-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-
Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-
Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop early this evening,
and may linger past midnight in east central Illinois. Some of the
storms may be severe, with large hail the main concern. However,
localized damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. The tornado
probability is low, but is more likely near I-72 if it were to occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday through Tuesday. Severe
weather is possible during the afternoon and evening, with large hail
and damaging wind gusts the primary risks. However, rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches Monday afternoon and evening may lead to minor urban
flooding or ponding in low spots.

Low temperatures near freezing Thursday and Friday mornings may
cause some damage to early emerging vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the east northeast around 40 mph.

ILZ066>068-071>073-011100-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, and
linger past midnight. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing some hail to near quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night. Severe
weather is possible during the afternoon and evening, with large
hail and damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the east northeast around 40 mph.

Geelhart

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
837 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Hail             Forsyth                 39.93N 88.95W
03/31/2024  E1.75 Inch       Macon              IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
838 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Hail             4 SW Hammond            39.77N 88.65W
03/31/2024  E1.75 Inch       Moultrie           IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Hail             Mount Zion              39.78N 88.87W
03/31/2024  M1.75 Inch       Macon              IL   Mesonet

            SWOP report of golf ball size hail with
            photo.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Hail             2 E Greenview           40.11N 89.71W
03/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Menard             IL   Mesonet

            Quarter size hail with wind damage near
            Greenview.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Greenview           40.08N 89.70W
03/31/2024                   Menard             IL   Mesonet

            Tree and structural damage near home east of
            Greenview along with 1 inch hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
908 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Hail             2 SSW Forsyth           39.90N 88.97W
03/31/2024  E2.00 Inch       Macon              IL   Public

            Picture via social media; Wolf Road.

&&

BMD