Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of unseasonably hot weather will continue
  through next week. Temperatures will range from the middle 80s
  to middle 90s, with the heat really ramping up Sunday into early
  next week as heat indices approach 100.

- Storm chances (60-80%) return this evening and tonight.
  Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible with the
  primary hazards being damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph,
  large hail up to baseball size, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Severe convection is still expected this evening and into tonight
across parts of the area. Large hail and damaging winds are still
expected with these storms as CAM models have been forecasting
since last night. Storms should develop north and west of the CWA
and then move into the CWA in the next several hours, thinking as
early as 5-6pm. Models do have convection diminishing as it moves
east and southeast, but some concern that the models are not
picking up on the cold pool that is expected to develop as the MCS
develops and then move east to southeast through the evening. The
front, along with the convection will move through the CWA tonight
and should be east and southeast of the area after midnight.
Tomorrow should be clear skies, well behind the front with lighter
winds as high pressure builds into the upper midwest. These
lighter winds and slightly cooler conditions will continue into
tomorrow night.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The main focus in the extended is the heat. Though temps will
still be on the warm side Sat, dwpts will be cool enough that
heat indicies will not be an issue. However, temps and dwpts will
increase starting on Sunday and continue into the middle of next
week. This will push HIs into the 100-105 range for those three
days. Any heat headlines will be considered later as there could
be some changes based on forecasted cloud cover. Precip chances
through the extended period will not be that high but some slight
chances do show up in some periods.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A complex of storms over west central IL will continue to move
east this evening. Timed the cluster of storms for a 2 hour tempo
group for lower cigs and higher winds for this evening at PIA and
BMI, but went for 3hrs for SPI, DEC, CMI...also lower cigs with
higher winds. After the precip moves out of the sites, broken cigs
around 8kft are expected through the overnight hours. Tomorrow
morning, expecting light and variable winds as a high pressure
ridge builds into the area. Also expecting clear skies tomorrow
through most of the day due to drier conditions.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-142015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
309 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to impact the area this evening.
Damaging winds gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Heavy rain rates could result in localized rainfall amounts over 5",
which could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat and humidity will increase again late this weekend and early
next week, with heat indices reaching the mid 90s to low 100 degree
range each day Sunday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 5 PM and 11 PM.

Expected storm motion is toward the southeast around 25 to 35 mph.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-142015-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
309 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms tonight may produce gusty winds, though
organized severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat and humidity will increase again late this weekend and early
next week, with heat indices reaching the mid 90s to around 100
degrees each day Sunday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Erwin