Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
605 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning,
  bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front should
  exit to the east of Illinois around early afternoon.

- A mainly dry pattern sets up starting this afternoon. A small
  (10- 20% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this weekend as
  some MCS type systems pass to our south.

-  High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next
   Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for late next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some
showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of
it. Severe threats appear to be low with these storms. These storms
will be scattered in a semi-line formation. As it works eastward,
locally heavy rainfall is possible. The activity should be out of
the area by 18/19z this early afternoon (based on the 06z HRRR),
exiting to the east into Indiana.

There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight,
which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern
counties of the CWA. However, confidence is low so only have 15-20%
POPs in the forecast for late this evening through tonight. Once
these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our
southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping
us in the middle. This will allow a mostly dry period for the
extended forecast. The next tiny chance for rain comes Saturday
and Sunday as MCS activity transverses to our south. There is a
10-20% chance that the systems move just north enough to affect
our southern portion of the CWA. As we move closer we can get a
better idea of the exact location of these southern MCS systems
and if they will directly affect us here in central and
southeastern Illinois.

Daytime temperatures following this cold front will hang around the
mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday. Then it will warm back up
into the 80s starting Wednesday afternoon. CPC shows below normal
temperatures for the 6-10 day period and near normal to above for
the 8-14 day period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will sweep across the central IL terminals through
the morning, producing scattered TSRA for the I-72 corridor
southward through 14Z, as well as a band of MVFR cigs. This region
of MVFR cigs will last a few hours, then clear out as VFR
conditions return for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds
SW around 10 kts before the front arrives, followed by NW winds
10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts after 16Z-20Z. Winds
diminishing after 03Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
512 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>050-061100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
512 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this morning. These are not
expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ044>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061100-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-
Richland-Lawrence-
512 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through early afternoon. An
isolated storm could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts
and large hail being the primary threats. Heavy rainfall could lead
to localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early afternoon.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 30 mph.

37

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