Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger showers and thunderstorms to continue into the evening
  hours. Some storms could become severe with damaging winds,
  large hail, and an isolated tornado.

- Saturday will be dry and warm. Highs in the 70s, clear skies,
  and dry weather makes for a beautiful Saturday.

- There is a 80-100% chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. These
  storms have the potential to be severe, with an enhanced risk
  (level 3 of 5) for severe weather that day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The storms this afternoon continue to have a severe aspect to them,
with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado being
possible. They are quite chaotic in motion and where they are
initiating. There are multiple boundaries interacting with each
other. They are seemingly merging to create a linear formation and
will move off to the east towards the Indiana border this evening.
There is a flooding risk with these storms as they are moving slower
and the axis of higher PWAT values is across the CWA, east of I-55.
The severe risk should subside before midnight tonight.

Saturday a surface high pressure will set up over the area,
providing us a brief breather before the next round of active
weather arrives Sunday morning. There is a low pressure system
bringing frontal passages through the region on Sunday with a risk
of severe weather along with the cold front.

A warm front will quickly move north through central Illinois early
Sunday morning, placing us in the warm sector. This should allow us
to destabilize and break any cap that is in place ahead of the
cold front. Highs that day are in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with
dewpoints near 70. The GFS is showing about 3000-4000 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 40-55 knots effective bulk wind shear, and very steep mid-
level lapse rates of ~9 C/km by 18z Sunday. DCAPE is showing
around 1000 J/kg on forecast NAM and GFS soundings at that same
time. This round of severe weather will have an all hazards risk,
damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two.

Monday (Memorial Day) has a 20-30% of any showers that day but will
be mainly dry. However, it will be quite windy. So those on the lake
or tent camping should stay aware of any stronger wind gusts that
may occur Sunday night into Monday. There is a 50-70% chance of wind
gusts 40+ mph overnight. Temperatures look to be in the mid 70s for
the holiday.

Further passed Monday, highs slowly warm back up but stay in the mid
70s to low 80s through the week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the central IL
airports through early evening with MVFR conditions at times with
heavier showers. Breezy south winds 12-18 kts with gusts 20-28
kts will occur (stronger gusts possible with thunderstorms),
except an outflow boundary from this mornings MCS giving north to
NE wind direction early this afternoon. A cold front will push
eastward over central IL early overnight with winds shifting NW to
north and averaging around 10 kts. Showers will end after cold
frontal passage and clouds to scatter out during overnight from
west to east with fair skies on Saturday morning as weak high
pressure settles into IL.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-252000-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
250 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms areawide this afternoon and evening, capable
of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
Sunday across central Illinois. All hazards are possible including
damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from now until 11PM tonight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east-northeast around 40 mph.

Copple

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Rain             2 WSW Champaign         40.10N 88.31W
05/24/2024  M1.63 Inch       Champaign          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CMII2 2.5 W Champaign.

0228 PM     Rain             2 SSE Grandview         39.79N 89.62W
05/24/2024  M1.38 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SPLLC 1 SSE Grandview.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     Flood            5 NE Pawnee             39.64N 89.51W
05/24/2024                   Sangamon           IL   Mesonet

            Minor flooding on rural road 2 miles west of
            New City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Pawnee              39.58N 89.58W
05/24/2024  E60 MPH          Sangamon           IL   Emergency Mngr

            Estimated wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
246 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Rain             2 E Chatham             39.67N 89.67W
05/24/2024  M1.84 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW5373 Chatham.

0235 PM     Rain             2 SSE Grandview         39.79N 89.62W
05/24/2024  M1.45 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SPLLC 1 SSE Grandview.

0230 PM     Rain             Pawnee                  39.59N 89.58W
05/24/2024  M1.20 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW9237 Pawnee.

0235 PM     Rain             Rantoul Airport         40.29N 88.15W
05/24/2024  M1.20 Inch       Champaign          IL   AWOS

            AWOS station KTIP Rantoul Arpt.

&&

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