Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

174 
WWUS83 KILX 291527
RFWILX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

ILZ027>031-036-037-300000-
/O.EXA.KILX.FW.W.0002.241029T1800Z-241030T0000Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-
1027 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Knox, Stark, Peoria, Marshall, Woodford, 
  Fulton and Tazewell.

* TIMING...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 35 percent.

* 10 HOUR FUELS...Less than 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

ILZ038-043>046-055-057-300000-
/O.CON.KILX.FW.W.0002.241029T1800Z-241030T0000Z/
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Douglas-Edgar-
1027 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ILLINOIS...

* AFFECTED AREA...McLean, De Witt, Piatt, Champaign, Vermilion, 
  Douglas and Edgar.

* TIMING...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 31 percent.

* 10 HOUR FUELS...Less than 9 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Auten

123 
WWUS83 KILX 292353
RFWILX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
653 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-043>046-055-057-300100-
/O.EXP.KILX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-241030T0000Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Douglas-Edgar-
653 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

Southerly winds will continue to gust 25 to 35 mph overnight, but
humidity levels have crept back above 40 percent. The Red Flag
Warning will be allowed to expire at 7 pm this evening. 

$$

Deubelbeiss

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, windy, and dry conditions will continue through most of
  Wednesday, resulting high fire danger, especially Tuesday
  afternoon. Wind gusts will be near 40 mph on both Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Record warmth tonight into Wednesday, as highs get into the 80s
  and lows are in the 60s.

- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  night into Thursday. Around a half inch of rain is expected in
  central and southeast IL.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Increasing pressure gradients will take place overnight as low
pressure continues to deepen in the Plains, while a shortwave
crosses the area overnight, strengthening a low level jet and
enhancing the surface pressure gradient. We have already seen an
uptick in winds as a result, with a breezy 10-15 mph across most
of central IL. The forecast continues to ramp up winds to 15-20
mph with gusts 25-30 mph, and this looks consistent with the
latest guidance. The breezy winds will limit temperature falls
overnight, and it temperatures should only be able to fall to
lower to mid 60s from values currently in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Otherwise, high clouds clouds should continue to stream
across the area much of the night. Only adjustments made to
forecast were to increase cloud cover overnight.

37

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Low pressure developing into the central IL will bring strong
southerly winds into Wednesday night, with paltry moisture
expected. A period of dry air aloft mixing down Tuesday afternoon
expected to bring Relative humidity close to 25 percent, although
there is still some uncertainty about exact efficiency off this
mixing, and relative humidity ranging from around 25 to 40 percent
from various models. With ongoing drought conditions and any
rainfall from a few days ago evaporated, high fire danger is
expected, especially Tuesday afternoon, and a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued.

The associated cold front looks to arrive late Wednesday night,
bringing a wide band of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday
morning. Around a half inch rainfall is expected most areas,
however there will likely be some variation with at least a few
embedded thunderstorms. Instability looks to be minimal at this
point in central IL, however several hundred J/KG CAPE an deep
layer shear exceeding 40 kts is expected as it moves into the
Mississippi Valley Wednesday evening, and there could potentially
be some strong to severe storms west of I-55 until diminishing
instability takes place with eastward extent overnight. SPC has
extended a Marginal Risk for severe storms with wind and hail
threats in this area.

Rain should end by late morning for most of central IL, although
it could linger into the afternoon east of I-55. Friday and
Saturday will likely be dry as high pressure builds into the area,
then late in the weekend chances for precipitation return as a
long wave trough sets up to the west and a few disturbances eject
into the Midwest, potentially bringing more showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be near record warm tonight and Tuesday,
reaching only lower to mid 60s tonight and highs of lower 80s
Tuesday afternoon. As warm southerly flow continues Tuesday night
into Wednesday, not much change in the temperatures are expected,
however records for October 30th (Wednesday) are a few to several
degrees warmer and will be harder to reach. The cold front
Wednesday night will bring much cooler temperatures, with a return
to near normal expected by Halloween evening. Highs on the
31st/Halloween/Thursday should range from around 60 in Galesburg
to 72 in Lawrenceville, then lows should dip into the 30s Thursday
night for most of the area.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Tight MSLP gradient remains in place, keeping strong/gusty south
to southwest winds in the forecast. Gusts will frequently exceed
20 kt tonight, and will keep LLWS in due to a 50 kt low level jet
overhead, which has veered winds (near 210 degrees) compared to
180 degrees at the surface. Mixing deepens with daytime heating
and will likely see a jump in gusts to 30-35 kt by mid morning as
the low level jet fades. Winds Tuesday evening will be similar to
this evening with another round of LLWS developing. VFR through
the period with BKN high clouds.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s Tuesday 10/29 and
Wednesday 10/30 while overnight lows stay in the 60s. Here is a
look at how that compares to the daily records across central
Illinois:

						October 29th

------------- Record High --------- Record Warm Low ------------

Peoria........ 82 (1922)				65 (1946)
Springfield... 83 (2016, 2004, 1937)	66 (1946)
Lincoln....... 84 (1937)				65 (1946)

						October 30th

------------- Record High --------- Record Warm Low ------------

Peoria........ 86 (1950)				62 (1927)
Springfield... 89 (1950)				61 (1974)
Lincoln....... 87 (1950)				59 (2004, 1974, 1924)

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for ILZ031-037-038-041>046-048-051>057-061.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
311 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

ILZ027>030-036-040-047-049-050-062-063-066>068-071>073-292015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Fulton-Schuyler-Cass-Scott-Morgan-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
311 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An extended period of windy conditions is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday, with southwest winds gusting to near 40 mph. This will
bring elevated fire danger to the region each afternoon, along with
difficult travel for lightweight high profile vehicles.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the area Wednesday night. A few
strong storms are possible west of I-55, with gusty winds and small
hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ031-037-038-041>046-048-051>057-061-292015-
Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-
Vermilion-Menard-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-
Edgar-Shelby-
311 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An extended period of windy conditions is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday, with southwest winds gusting to near 40 mph. This will
bring elevated fire danger to the region each afternoon. A Fire
Weather Watch in effect Tuesday afternoon into early evening. Strong
winds will also create difficult travel for lightweight high profile
vehicles.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the area Wednesday night. A few
strong storms are possible west of I-55, with gusty winds and small
hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

NMA